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Super Tuesday Primaries - Live Report - Updated
Chandra
Is today is a big night or what? 22 states vote today to shortlist the nominees from the two main political parties for the US Presidential elections in November. Better known as Super Tuesday, today is the busiest day in the primary calender with nearly half of all delegates available to both parties
Results: (May change)
| Hillary Clinton: AK, AR, AZ, CA, MA, NY, NJ, OK, TN |
| Barack Obama: AL, CT, CO, DE, GA, ID, IL, KS, NM, MO, MN, ND, UT |
| John McCain: AZ, CA, CT, DE, IL, MO, NJ, NY, OK |
| Mitt Romney: CO, MA, MN, MT, ND, UT |
| Mike Huckabee: AL, AR, GA, TN, WV |
California Hillary Clinton and John McCain look set to take California
From a delegates standpoint, John McCain seems to have a big lead over the other Republican candidates, while it's still hard to call between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton.Delegates:
| Hillary Clinton: 591 |
| Barack Obama: 476 |
| John McCain: 487 |
| Mitt Romney: 176 |
| Mike Huckabee: 122 |
- West Virginia GOP Convention: The state has 18 delegates to the national convention, and first round voting was inconclusive with no candidate gaining a majority. Mike Huckabee won the second round, taking all delegates. Ron Paul was eliminated in the first round of voting. Mitt Romney came second.
- Hillary Clinton had to cut short a television interview on ABC's This Week due to a coughing fit, she joked that it was due to the intense campaigning in New York. Hopefully nothing some hot tea won't fix.
- Almost all opinion polls are trending towards an Obama and McCain landslide. Obama was ahead by 13 points in California (Reuters/Zogby Poll)
- Hillary has raised only $13.5M in Jan as opposed to $31M by Obama, although it appears more Wall Street money went to Ms. Clinton.
- Absentee ballot data in California indicates that Obama is trending well amongst these voters as well. Mitt Romney seems to be positioned well to win California and Mass.
- Hillary has begun to lose the decisive edge she had amongst women.
- If Hillary wins the Presidency, she becomes the first female President, An Obama win will mean the first African Amercian President and if John McCain wins he could become the oldest ever to be elected as President
- Irrespective of who amongst Clinton, Obama and McCain becomes the president, the US will have a Senator becoming the president for the first time in 40 years (Nixon was the last).
- McCain continues to be attacked by so called 'conservatives' within the party. Conservative Fashionista Ann Coulter has already promised to vote Hillary if McCain is the GOP nominee
- Hillary cried again last night, campaigning in New York.
As the results stream in, here is what one should watch out for tonight
Democrats
a. Who is winning California? Barack Obama is expected to win a landslide by Zogby/Reuters
c. Who is winning New Mexico/ Arizona and Colorado? Most polls predict an Obama win
d. What is the size of victory margin in New York/ Georgia and Illinois? Most polls predict an Obama landslide in Georgia/Illinois and a good win for Hillary (20pts) in New York
e. How many states will Hillary win? Anything less than 10 will end her campaign
f. How many delegates did Obama win? Anything greater than 900 will making him the party's nominee
Note: Democrats divide their delegates at two levels - Level 1: According to the % of votes won in the state (30% of delegates), Level 2: According to % of votes won in a congressional district. Anything above 15% gives you one delegate and even a 60%-40% result could give equal number of delegates to both candidates
Republicans
a. Who is winning California and by how much?
b. Who is winning in NY/NJ/CT and Mass.?
c. How many Southern states will Huckabee win? Read about the possibility of Huckabee's Evangelicals voting for Barack Obama
Note: Most Republican States follow the system of winner takes all.
Summary
Almost all opinion polls (GOP, Democrats) have trended in Obama's and McCain’s favor. This could probably mean a big night for both McCain and Obama. While McCain had strengthened his position after South Carolina and Florida, Obama could do the same today as almost all scenarios are in his favor.
My forecast
1. Hillary will drop out: If Obama wins most states or more delegates (100+)
2. Obama will drop out: If Hillary wins most states and a delegate gap greater than 100). The polls suggest that this scenario is impossible.
3. No change in situation: If Obama and Clinton win equal number of states and almost the same number of delegates (+-50)
3. Both Romney and Huckabee will drop out
Join us tonight for updates, analysis and a live discussion at 7.00 PM EST/ 12.00 GMT/5.30 IST
The states in play:
| Primaries: AL, AZ, AR, CA, CT, DE, GA, IL, MA, MO, NJ, NY, OK, TN, UT |
| Caucuses: AK, CO, ID (Dem), KS (Dem), MN, MT (GOP), NM (Dem), ND, WV |
Super Tuesday Primaries - Live Report - Updated
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Aaman
URL
February 5, 2008
09:10 AM
I can't believe Ann Coulter picked Hillary - talk about a snide compliment:)
smallsquirrel
February 5, 2008
09:55 AM
ugh... just the mere mention of Coulter makes my blood run cold.
And if both Romney and Huckabee drop out it will be my political wet dream.
temporal
URL
February 5, 2008
10:06 AM
we have a long day....er....night ahead
here is the quote of the day:
mamama
February 5, 2008
10:16 AM
"Both Romney and Huckabee will drop out"
And so will McCain, after Ron Paul wins!
Aaman
URL
February 5, 2008
10:35 AM
Ron Paul wins what? The Internet constituency doesn't have voting rights yet.
Aaman
URL
February 5, 2008
12:14 PM
Who do you think will be the Vice-Presidential candidates if there's just one person left standing on either side?
Chandra
February 5, 2008
12:28 PM
McCain needs to consider two weaknesses
a. Age
b. Understanding of the Economy
So anybody much younger with a good understanding of the economy would be a good candidate....
Obama should consider Bill Richardson.....Latinos will be decisive and no harm in building a base ...Plus BR has massive foreign policy experience.....
Aditi Nadkarni
February 5, 2008
01:40 PM
On a lighter note, Chandra, we should add to the list:
"Obama looks better in a pant suit than Hillary"
:)
I don't even get to vote and yet I'm still excited. I have to say that the tone of this live report makes the Super Tuesday all the more fun.
I'm glad you came up with this Chandra.
Hope I'll be able to drop by and insert my own updates later. Looking forward to the reports!
Aaman
URL
February 5, 2008
01:53 PM
The Dow is down 300, and they say the market is always right, so what's the market saying?
Aaman
URL
February 5, 2008
02:16 PM
Updates at the top of the story - West Virginia initial round results
Chandra
February 5, 2008
04:52 PM
I can sense an Obama landslide today...too much chatter about Hillary supporters feeling out of place about supporting her....we typically notice this when customers shift from one brand to another....this is happening......
Chandra
February 5, 2008
05:01 PM
Aditi
Let us hope this turns out well...:-)
Chandra
February 5, 2008
05:02 PM
Aaman
There are no knowns in the market, only unknown unknowns.....the market as an arbiter is a capitalist lie :-)
temporal
URL
February 5, 2008
05:16 PM
aaman #9:
Temple Stark
URL
February 5, 2008
06:03 PM
John Kennedy was the last sitting senator to win the presidency.
I voted for Hillary Clinton after John Edwards dropped out. I don't usually flash that around, but this time I am VERY proud not to vote Republican.
- Temple
Chandra
February 5, 2008
06:33 PM
Hi
3 updates sent!!!Including exit polls...
18:27 EST
temporal
URL
February 5, 2008
06:35 PM
haven't received them yet
temporal
URL
February 5, 2008
06:42 PM
this Interactive Map is great for those who are following this:)
Chandra
February 5, 2008
07:09 PM
Georgia called for Obama
Too close to call for GOP
Chandra
February 5, 2008
07:11 PM
Georgia- Dems
Obama does better than expected...
RCP forecast 62%, exit polls forecast: 67%
http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/#GADEM
Chandra
February 5, 2008
07:13 PM
Georgia GOP
McCain unlikely to win Georgia
Exit polls suggest close contest between Huckabee and Romney
http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/#val=GAREP
Chandra
February 5, 2008
07:18 PM
Georgia
53% of voters were black and Obama won a 90% of those votes.
35% of voters were white and Obamaa won 40% of those votes
Chandra
February 5, 2008
07:24 PM
National Fox News EXIT poll results
GOP Results
Republicans: McCain 40, Romney 36, Huckabee 18
Evangelicals: Huckabee 33, McCain 31, Romney 30
Conservatives: Romney 42, McCain 31, Huckabee 20
Those most concerned about:
Immigration: Romney 48, McCain 25, Huckabee 15
Economy: McCain 40, Romney 32, Huck 18
Iraq: McCain 51, Romney 20, Huckabee 15
Democrats
Blacks: Obama 81, Clinton 17
Whites: Clinton 50, Obama 44
Hispanics: Clinton 62, Obama 36
White women: Clinton 57, Obama 45
Young whites: Obama 64, Clinton 35
Chandra
February 5, 2008
07:28 PM
Massive landslide expected for Obama....here are new exit poll results. Obama expected to win 11/16....folks it is all over for Clinton
Second Wave Numbers
Alabama: Obama 60, Clinton 37
Arizona: Obama 51, Clinton 45
Arkansas: Clinton 72, Obama 26
Connecticut: Obama 53, Clinton 45
Delaware: Obama 56, Clinton 42
Georgia: Obama 75, Clinton 26
Illinois: Obama 70, Clinton 30
Massachusetts: Obama 50, Clinton 48
Missouri: Obama 50, Clinton 46
New Jersey: Obama 53, Clinton 47
New York: Clinton 56, Obama 43
Oklahoma: Clinton 61, Obama 31
Tennessee: Clinton 52, Obama 41.1
California: Clinton 50, Obama 47
New Mexico: Obama 52, Clinton 47
Utah: Obama 61, Clinton 40
Chandra
February 5, 2008
07:32 PM
GOP shows a mixed picture
The Great Big Early Exit Poll Report
The early wave in California: McCain 40 percent, Romney 36 percent, Huckabee 10 percent.
Missouri: Romney 34 percent, McCain 32 percent, Huckabee 25 percent.
Georgia: Huckabee 34 percent, Romney 31 percent, McCain 30 percent.
New York: McCain 46, Romney 35, Huckabee 10 percent.
New Jersey: McCain 48 percent, Romney 35, Huckabee 9 percent.
Connecticut: McCain 50 percent, Romney 32 percent, Huckabee 7 percent.
The early wave in Utah: Romney 91 percent, McCain 5 percent, Huckabee 1 percent.
Massachusetts: Romney 54, McCain 35.
Arizona: McCain 44, Romney 39, Huckabee 8.
Alabama: Huckabee 42 percent, McCain 33 percent, Romney 20 percent.
Tennessee: Huckabee 34, McCain 28, Romney 23.
Arkansas: Huckabee 33, McCain 21, Romney 19.
Oklahoma: McCain 34, Huckabee 32, Romney 27.
Delaware: Romney 43, McCain 34, Huckabee 18.
Illinois: McCain 47, Romney 31, Huckabee 15.
Chandra
February 5, 2008
07:34 PM
Please note that the above exit polls are 'unofficial'...wait for another 30 mins for official numbers....my forecast of an Obama landslide looks feasible....
McCain performance is not as expected......
rgds
Chandra
February 5, 2008
08:01 PM
9 more states results expected in 5 minutes time....
Chandra
February 5, 2008
08:08 PM
New Calls
Alabama:
Connecticut:/McCain
Delaware:
Illinois: Obama/McCain
Massachusetts: Romney
Missouri:
New Jersey:
Oklahoma: /Clinton
Tennessee:
Chandra
February 5, 2008
08:13 PM
Exits Summary
Alabama: Obama 54%, Huckabee: 42%
Connecticut:Obama: 49.5%, McCain-wins
Chandra
February 5, 2008
08:15 PM
New jersey called for Mccain
Chandra
February 5, 2008
08:21 PM
Exit Summary -2
delaware: 48.7%
Illinois:Obama (68%), Mccain-45%
Mass: Obama (48.3%)/ Hillary: 47.8%
Chandra
February 5, 2008
08:30 PM
Exit Summary 3
Missouri:Clinton 47.3%, McCain: 32.35%
New jersey: Clinton:49, Obama: 48.6%, Mccain wins
Tennessee: Clinton:51.6%
Chandra
February 5, 2008
08:33 PM
Democrats: Possible Situation
Obama: 5
Clinton: 3
too close to call: 2 (NJ and Mass)
GOP
McCain: 4
Huckabee-2
Romney-1
Too close to call -2
Chandra
February 5, 2008
08:36 PM
Arkansas Called for Clinton, Huckabee
Chandra
February 5, 2008
08:37 PM
Huckabee doing well in the South
Romney is not doing as well as expected,
Obama and Clinton neck to neck...however, Obama expected to win more states.....
Chandra
February 5, 2008
08:39 PM
Channels now call Tennessee for Clinton....we already did that :-) in # 32
Chandra
February 5, 2008
08:43 PM
We are now going to call New jersey for Clinton...let us see how that goes.....
Chandra
February 5, 2008
08:48 PM
We are now going to call Mass for Obama.
Will review both NJ and Mass in an hours time
temporal
URL
February 5, 2008
08:48 PM
chandra:
suggest do two charts and run them in full adding the latest confirmed results at the bottom
candidate, state, votes, total?
Aditi Nadkarni
February 5, 2008
08:51 PM
Connecticut: Obama 50% Clinton 48%
Concerns about california going to Obama!
Georgia
Obama 59% Clinton 37%
Indication of Obama picking up Edwards votes!
Clinton 53% Obama 49% Masachussets
Obama-Clinton are really close! If California goes to Obama, that'll be huge for Obama. All eye's on CA.
Chandra
February 5, 2008
08:52 PM
Georgia still too close to call for GOP
Delaware called for McCain
Chandra
February 5, 2008
08:55 PM
T Bhai
raath ka 2 baja hain aur aap chart bana ne ki baath kar rahen hain? :-(. May be will be better organised next time...
Aditi
I dont think it matters who takes Calif now. The results are too close across most states. I dont want to say this but considering all the hype and media support for Obama he has done far worse than expected. I see this as a female backlash at obvious media bias against Clinton....
Chandra
February 5, 2008
08:58 PM
Folks
Some of these exit poll results donot make sense. They seem to underplay Clinton votes...why? Whites claiming to vote for Obama but actually voting for Clinton? Mass,NJ and Georgia for example....
Aditi Nadkarni
February 5, 2008
08:59 PM
The Connecticut result shocked me. So did Mass.-inspite of the Kennedy endorsement for Obama, Clinton did well.
Chandra
February 5, 2008
09:00 PM
Folks
To see the past hour situation....visit
http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/dates/#20080205
To know the future,come here :-)
7 states NEXT, we will as usual forecast before the channels :-)
Chandra
February 5, 2008
09:02 PM
Aditi
If you see Mass tallies, they are completely off base from the exit poll analysis. The numbers are trending towards a Clinton victory...that would be a shocker ....
Aditi Nadkarni
February 5, 2008
09:07 PM
Yes, thats why I'm shocked. I'd figured that after the Kennedy endorsement Mass. would surely go to Obama!
Also, I'm just plain curious about CA...whether it matters or not at this point. As far as the democrats are concerned, its fun to see which one of the liberals the most liberal state chooses :)
You said: "I see this as a female backlash at obvious media bias against Clinton..."
I think so too.
BTW, you are doing a great job w/ the projections! Good going!
Chandra
February 5, 2008
09:08 PM
NY Called for Hillary, not a big win...only 57% of the vote....
Aditi Nadkarni
February 5, 2008
09:10 PM
Alabama projected: Huckabee
Aditi Nadkarni
February 5, 2008
09:11 PM
Delaware: Obama projected
Chandra
February 5, 2008
09:13 PM
Obama for Delaware, we did that in 31
Chandra
February 5, 2008
09:15 PM
Alabama projection for Huckabee in 29..:-) we are beating teh channels...
Chandra
February 5, 2008
09:20 PM
NY for McCain
Arizona:Obama 48%, McCain
Kansas caucus for Obama
NM: Obama 48.3%---> too close to call
cannot forecast Minnesota, Colorado
Chandra
February 5, 2008
09:23 PM
We call Georgia for Mike huckabee....
Chandra
February 5, 2008
09:27 PM
Ny Called for McCain..funny, we did that in 53...these channels are a scam....
Chandra
February 5, 2008
09:27 PM
Ny Called for McCain..funny, we did that in 53...these channels are a scam....
Chandra
February 5, 2008
09:31 PM
We may have to withdraw # 38....waiting for Boston results....but Mass trending Hillary....shock of the night.....
Chandra
February 5, 2008
09:36 PM
Channels call Alabama for Obama, we did that in 29
Chandra
February 5, 2008
09:38 PM
We call North Dakota for Obama....
Chandra
February 5, 2008
09:44 PM
Summary for Dems
Obama: Alabama, Arizona, CT, Delaware, Georgia, Illinois, Kansas, Mass (?), North Dakota
Clinton: Arkansas, Missouri, NJ, NY, Ok,Tennessee
Cannot call: Minnesota, Colorado, New Mexico
If Mass shifts to Clinton, score will read: 8-7 in favor of Obama.......
Chandra
February 5, 2008
09:50 PM
GOP Summary
Huckabee- Arkansas, Georgia, Alabama
McCain: NY, NJ, CT, Az, Delaware, Missouri
Romney: Mass
Chandra
February 5, 2008
09:53 PM
SHOCKER.....
HILLARY BEATS OBAMA IN THE LIBERAL DEN OF MASSACHUSETTS.
Chandra
February 5, 2008
10:09 PM
UTAH for Romney
We are calling Idaho for Obama
Chandra
February 5, 2008
10:11 PM
Oklahoma for McCain
Chandra
February 5, 2008
10:17 PM
We call Minnesota for obama
Aaman
URL
February 5, 2008
10:19 PM
Results scorecard added to article, thanks Chandra for all the updates via comments
Chandra
February 5, 2008
10:28 PM
No updates until 11 EST
Chandra
February 5, 2008
11:37 PM
CNN calls Georgia for Huckabee....54...
temporal
URL
February 5, 2008
11:43 PM
chandra:
update 24
it is too close yet:)
Chandra
February 5, 2008
11:50 PM
We call Calif for Hillary.....Asians annd Latinos strongly favor Hillary....
We Call Calif for John McCain......Romney is finished!!!!!
Chandra
February 5, 2008
11:54 PM
T
You meant Missouri? Looks tight....
Arizona for Hillary......
Chandra
February 5, 2008
11:57 PM
The results are being seen as a shock for Obama and team....with intratrade suddenly increasing in favor of Clinton
http://www.intrade.com//?request_operation=main&request_type=action&checkHomePage=true
Chandra
February 6, 2008
12:01 AM
Barack speaking...his usual uplifting speech....but attacking Clinton now....
Chandra
February 6, 2008
12:07 AM
Delegate Tally is
600-530 in Obama's favor....
Chandra
February 6, 2008
12:10 AM
Romney wins Montana.....McCain hasn't swept any of the states....that does not sound good for him.....Rush Limbaugh thinks McCain is less conservative than Hillary....so much for the anti-hillary vote.....
Chandra
February 6, 2008
12:11 AM
Huckabee wins Tennessee....
This guy is really something!!! if only he wasn't a religious nut case....he would have been president......
Chandra
February 6, 2008
12:14 AM
Jamal Simmons of CNN spinning for Obama...incredible!!!
Chandra
February 6, 2008
12:15 AM
Paula Begala thinks exit polling is understating Hillary's vote and that poor people are voting Hillary......
Chandra
February 6, 2008
12:16 AM
Florida and Michigan delegates will be a big dispute...equivalent to Gore 2000.....
Chandra
February 6, 2008
12:18 AM
Aaman
We can add CA for Hillary.....
Chandra
February 6, 2008
12:21 AM
Aaman,
We can flip MO-Missouri for Obama.....big win for Obama...
Chandra
February 6, 2008
12:28 AM
Calif delgate split will be marginally better for Hillary
http://vote.ss.ca.gov/Returns/pres/dem/map010001000000.htm
Chandra
February 6, 2008
12:31 AM
McCain has won almost half the delegates, already at 406 vs about 100 for each of his competitors......
Obama....likely to win 14-8......states...major positive....
Chandra
February 6, 2008
12:32 AM
OK
Channels call Calif for Hillary and McCain...we did that before
Chandra
February 6, 2008
12:35 AM
Channels call MO for McCain...we did hat before.....
We now call New Mexico for Obama...great win....
Missouri and New Mexico are excellent wins for Obama
Chandra
February 6, 2008
12:42 AM
Biggest losers for today
A. MITT ROMNEY
B. POLLSTER JOHN ZOGBY AND REUTERS WHO FORECAST A 13% WIN FOR OBAMA IN CALIFORNIA. HE SHOULD STOP POLLING FOR AGES NOW
Chandra
February 6, 2008
12:47 AM
FOX Calls Missouri-MO for Obama......
Chandra
February 6, 2008
01:05 AM
OK Folks.....that is me for now........I hope (whoever) was following this liked the swift updates and (any) insights......do share your feedback for improvement.......Thanks
Aaman
URL
February 6, 2008
01:10 AM
Thanks for the efforts, Chandra, entertaining reading. Looking for the roundup article soon.
Aditi Nadkarni
February 6, 2008
03:36 AM
Very good work Chandra. Insightful and remarkably quick yet accurate projections. I was very impressed. Thank you for the live report.
Deepti Lamba
URL
February 6, 2008
05:50 AM
Awesome work Chandra, much appreciated:)
Chandra
February 6, 2008
06:28 AM
Aaman, Aditi, Deepti
Thank you....I turned up at work at 11 AM :-)......a round up article will follow during the next 24 hours.......it was fun i must admit....:-)
Chandra
February 7, 2008
12:57 PM
Breaking News
Romney out!!!
http://thepage.time.com/2008/02/07/sources-romney-to-quit-race/
temporal
URL
February 7, 2008
01:09 PM
good work chandra (here)
:)
yeah i read that too .. now it is mccain's to win the fringe right in his party;)
and over there hilary is cash strapped...she put in five mill of her own
and obama campaign let it be know that they raised about 7 million since tuesday
no wonder hilary campaign is asking him for four more debates (free publicity)
smallsquirrel
February 7, 2008
01:10 PM
thank god. that man effed up MA and I was not looking forward to seeing him take his arse-backward roadshow world-wide! :)
Aaman
URL
February 7, 2008
01:18 PM
Chandra, we need a Romney article - share the Dem love:)
temporal
URL
February 7, 2008
01:59 PM
steve clemons writes in huffington post today that gore will apparently endorse obama
commonsense
February 7, 2008
03:48 PM
Thanks Chandra for this!
This is an unGod sent! For newsjunkies like us!
Chandra
February 8, 2008
12:35 AM
Folks
To be honest, Romney was as good or bad as the rest.To think of it, the Americans have assembled some of the most incompetent people for President.
T
Clemons himself does not believe that is likely to happen. The risk for Gore is 'What If Hillary wins?'. The Kennedy's and Kerry overestimated their influence in the party. Let us face it none of Kerry/Kenndy or Gore won the presidency -Clinton did.
Hillary raised 7.5 M yesterday. Who knows whether the whole 5 M loan thing is a scam? With the clintons...u never know....
Obama is sounding more and more like a cult leader.
But it is increasingly looking like McCain vs Obama with McCain winning.....
temporal
URL
February 11, 2008
02:24 PM
chandra
mccain is bush-lite (minus dick)
and the americans are fed up of wars overseas
at this point it is likely a chimp or poodle facing the republicans will win;)
commonsense
February 11, 2008
04:38 PM
Temporal:
""mccain is bush-lite (minus dick)"
Did you mean dick or cheyney?
temporal
URL
February 12, 2008
12:20 AM
cs:
you know which dick i meant.... sheesh....now go and rinse your mouth with a mouthwash
will that qualify as ethnic (mouth) cleansing?
Chandra
February 12, 2008
12:44 AM
T-100
I am sorry, I meant Obama winning and not McCain. A freudian slip!!!! :-)
I am hoping against hope that this joker Obama loses......I know it will not happen though
Chandra
February 12, 2008
12:48 AM
I am hoping to see Obama today or tom at Wisconsin. I have never been to a cult meeting. This would be fun.
blokesablogin
February 12, 2008
12:52 AM
I liked Obama to start with but now I have 2nd thoughts- he sounds like an evangelist! And I can never like a politician who is so blatently 'ungentlemanly"- attacking Clinton like than. He keeps saying Change, change- but what is this change of his/ No one seems to be interested in that answer.
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