Nepal - Cautious Optimism or Continued Instability

Nepal's historic return to parliamentary democracy was heralded on 28 June this year raising hopes of rapid normalcy in India's turbulent Northern neighbour which had seen strife for over a decade. Street-side protests in Kathmandu acted as the tipping point for an obdurate King Gyanendra who had refused to see the writing on the wall to abdicate power to people's representatives. The expectations of return to stability however have been belied by the political and militant happenings in the state over the past few weeks. Thus analysts have raised fears ranging from continued rounds of fractious negotiations to reopening of a new phase of civil activism on the streets. Some cynics have even predicted a return to militancy in case the demands of the Maoists are not met in full, though at present this appears to be a gross over-reaction.

The signs of dissonance in the state are ominous. These relate to the polity, law and order, disarming and reemployment of Maoist cadres and emergence of factionalism with break away groups as the Janatantrik Terai Mukti Morcha (JTMM) increasingly threatening to play spoiler. Politically the agreement between the Seven Party Alliance (SPA) and the Maoists is based on strong foundations of the 15 Point Agreement which was followed by the final 8 Point Agreement which have provided the frame work within which various contentious issues can well be resolved to establish, a "multiparty governing system, civil liberties, fundamental rights, human rights, press freedom and democratic norms and values including the concept of rule of law".

Present indications reveal that differences are narrowing down and there is much optimism of longevity of the political process. However a number of serrated interregnums are expected and only a strong commitment by the SPA and the Maoists will see stable polity emerging at the national level with balanced power sharing arrangements in the months ahead. The problem is likely to arise from growing influence of the Royalists, parties loyal to the monarchical form if not directly to the King who have shown greater organisational coherence in the past few weeks. These forces are likely to come into direct confrontation with the Maoists, for whom any reference to the monarch is anathema.

The next major issue is of law and order. Continued extortion, labour and union problems generally attributed to lack of control in the hinterland had led the Nepalese business community with FNCCI (Federation of Nepalese Chambers of Commerce and Industries) in the lead, threatening a five day strike protesting mayhem by Maoist elements and the criminal fringe which always thrives during periods of uncertainty. The crisis was averted with deft political maneuvering by the Prime Minister. The ability of the central Maoist leadership to control its cadres at the district level will finally determine prevalence of order, for the police which had been over shadowed by the Army during the period of struggle has not regained control of the country side. Reestablishment of order thus is a primary necessity which needs consideration at the highest level, for the number of reports of extortion and crime are increasing each day.

Disarming and providing gainful employment to the disarmed cadres will remain another vexatious issue. Unless the cadres are provided with alternate sources of legitimate income and institutional measures to assimilate them in a law abiding society are undertaken mere disarming would not lead to peace and stability. The first requirement thus appears to be to provide them some authentic source of income to stop extortions. Past experience suggests that it is difficult to wean away youth who have been accustomed to toting guns with impunity to adjust to the normal routine of earning bread through the grind of hard labor. Reskilling the force with vocational training could be one way, more creative integrationist measures would have to be evolved rather than mere absorption in the armed forces. The insistence by the SPA to start the process with disarmament is indeed the right path. Disarming will however prove difficult as present indications suggest that mass laying down of arms by the cadres on instructions from the leadership in Katmandu may not come about smoothly.

Arresting activities of break away factions such as the JTMM which are seen to raise the ante over the past few months with calls for secession of the Terai region is another area of confrontation. The danger in the Terai looms from varied ethnic communities as the Tharu tribal. Controlling these and similar movements, more of which will come about in the fractious geography of Nepal with limited communications between various parts of the country will be the final challenge which the Maoist and SPA combine would have to address with firmness.

While internecine conflict is not new to South Asian states, Nepal today is the exception impeding its growth and development. Others as Sri Lanka and Bangladesh have shown reasonable progress despite being embroiled in varying shades of terrorism. The Nepali political combine must bury the differences and take the benefits of peace to the hinterland, before the potential of a hundred mutinies erupts once again.