Desicritics Category: Politics: Energy

No Cop-out At Copenhagen

jay — Mon, 21 Dec 2009 06:57:18 EST

The lights have been put out at the Bella Center after two hectic weeks of heated debates in Copenhagen. To most observers, the net result of all that hullabaloo was nothing much to cheer about. After much hype and fanfare leading up to the event, it was somewhat of an anti-climax to see the delegates returning home empty handed. Although on first look it does not seem to augur well for the world that nothing happened at 'Hagen, I think there are a few intangibles that have been achieved that can take the momentum forward to Mexico next year.

For one, the US is now firmly in the ring. This was of course expected with the change in leadership in Washington. After 8 years of being against the green movement politically, the US has now assumed its role as the primary mover in these negotiations. It was evident in the way Mr. Obama and his team wanted to wrest the initiative and come up with something at the end (for him to boast of, back home!) even if it meant some arm-twisting. Whether it was in the right spirit or not, at least it set an agenda for the coming years to work on and puts the US rightly at the center of it.

Another positive is that China has now agreed to be a major player. Mind you, without the US and China leading this effort, there was no way any meaningful mitigation would result out of anything any one else would do. Not only has China agreed to be a major player, it has even agreed to make its effort verifiable. Now, one could say that for a country like China, this is easily done. Given the opaque nature of whatever it does and the thick hide it possesses, it is easy for China to agree to something, cook up the numbers when required or even to renege on commitments with impunity. However, the silver lining is that there are indications that China understands that worsening environment is detrimental to its own citizens more than any one else and has repercussions for the continuation of the Communist party regime in Beijing.

India, South Africa and Brazil got some brownie points to boast of. They were given recognition as emerging powers with a say in world affairs (as the BASIC group) and can at least be privy to what is being decided if not have a vote.

Another positive outcome of the meet has been the pledge by advanced nations to provide $100 billion of annual payouts to developing countries and technology transfers to help them mitigate the effects of climate change while transitioning to newer greener methods of energy production. This is a great achievement for the South as the North was never ready to acknowledge this need so far.

There are those who would declare that this conference has been a washout given that no legally binding requirements were agreed upon. It should be remembered that legally binding or not, if the adoption of green technologies resulted in a country losing out economically, those requirements would be chucked out the window. So, it is critical that every one have a say in the final outcome and that it not be shoved down some people's throats. With 192 members to agree on such a draft is going to take some time. We need to be patient and thank the leading countries for moving the talks in Copenhagen forward rather than backward.

Global Warming's Impact on Coral Reefs and Fishing

DeeptiA — Fri, 15 May 2009 11:30:06 EDT

Climate change, and the efforts needed to counter it, are among some of the hottest topics in the last 1-2 decades; it is also easy to see that the effort to discuss the needs for combating climate change is more than actual work being done to reduce emissions (climate change needs quick action and some aggressive goals of reducing emissions, and they are nowhere near happening).

Nations get into political arguments when discussions start; the main major polluter (the United States) refuses to take action because of the feared effect on its economy, Europe looks to somebody for taking the lead on this, and the fast developing nations such as China, India, Brazil, etc who are still current low contributors but will have a much higher impact on emissions going forward want to get funding from the rich before taking action.

And in the middle of all this, the world keeps getting hotter, and the changes that are being made due to the global warming phenomenon keeps on working to its own cycle. Global warming is supposed to affect poor nations much more than it will affect the richer nations (and it will affect nations that are more sea based much more than nations that are bigger land masses) since some of the changes being caused due to global warming are higher sea levels and changes in weather patterns that affect crop cycles. Another way in which global warming directly affects the world food economy is due to the impact on fishing, and a study points out that the rich fishing waters near Southeast Asia will get severely impacted (link to article):

Experts have warned that the richly diverse coral reefs of the Coral Triangle around southeast Asia will disappear by the end of the century if action is not taken against climate change. As well as the loss of one of the world's most diverse underwater ecosystems, the knock on effect would be the collapse of coastal economies that supports around 100 million people, according to the WWF- commissioned study outlined at the World Ocean Conference this week.

The Coral Triangle includes 30 percent of the world's reefs, 76 percent of global reef building coral species and more than 35 percent of coral reef fish. "In this world, people see the biological treasures of the Coral Triangle destroyed over the course of the century by rapid increases in ocean temperature, acidity and sea level, while the resilience of coastal environments also deteriorates under faltering coastal management. Poverty increases, food security plummets, economies suffer, and coastal people migrate increasingly to urban areas."

The report concludes that unless we take action to rollback some of the effects of global warming, the direct impact on fishing will cause huge problems to the global fishing economy and impact people who are dependent on fishing as both livelihood and for their food needs, and yet, if one evaluates where we are with trying to roll back emission levels, it is still talk and no action. The Obama administration, for all its talk about making changes in the Bush administration policy of action on global warming, has not taken any concrete action.

Military-Industrial- And Congressional Complex

temporal — Mon, 23 Mar 2009 00:33:06 EDT

In a conversation with a friend I mentioned military-industrial complex, made famous by Ike - President Eisenhower in his farewell speech to the nation on January 16, 1961.

Friend FK mentioned that in the original speech Ike had linked the US Congress to the Complex too.

Here is the original speech and an audio link Off-site Streaming Google Video of Address and Audio mp3 of Address. It was a thoughtful farewell address full of insights and even intuition.

And here is the relevant passage from that speech (bolds are mine):

In the councils of government, we must guard against the acquisition of unwarranted influence, whether sought or unsought, by the military-industrial complex. The potential for the disastrous rise of misplaced power exists and will persist. We must never let the weight of this combination endanger our liberties or democratic processes. We should take nothing for granted. Only an alert and knowledgeable citizenry can compel the proper meshing of the huge industrial and military machinery of defense with our peaceful methods and goals, so that security and liberty may prosper together.

Mentioning this speech, Michael Hornblow writes:

In an earlier draft of the address, Eisenhower used the term “military-industrial-congressional complex” but the president reportedly struck out the word “congressional”to avoid offending members of the legislative branch. The actual authors of the term were speechwriters Ralph Williams and Malcom Moos.

That was 1961. With the benefit of hindsight, it is easy to trace the reasons for this erosion of trust in the legislative arm.

Until effective and more meaningful elections reforms are undertaken, the candidates will continue to need a war chest of millions to win an election. This means a crack in the system that is exploited by by the Complex for their mutual benefit.

In the same speech Ike warned about plundering the present to rob the future. His environmental warning came way before conservation became a fad and a necessity.

Another factor in maintaining balance involves the element of time. As we peer into society's future, we -- you and I, and our government -- must avoid the impulse to live only for today, plundering for our own ease and convenience the precious resources of tomorrow. We cannot mortgage the material assets of our grandchildren without risking the loss also of their political and spiritual heritage. We want democracy to survive for all generations to come, not to become the insolvent phantom of tomorrow.

The old soldier-politician had the foresight to warn against profligacy. If timely action was taken then, with the dominant US leadership role a given, the action to roll back global warming would have been underway sooner.

In the same farewell address Ike took time to speak about "mutual trust and respect." We heard it echoed recently in President Obama's video address to Iran on the eve of Nauroze. Trust and respect between the rich and the poor is what is needed most. Instead the third world ceaselessly is on the receiving end of MIC driven Haliburtonesque dichotomies:

During the long lane of the history yet to be written, America knows that this world of ours, ever growing smaller, must avoid becoming a community of dreadful fear and hate, and be, instead, a proud confederation of mutual trust and respect. Such a confederation must be one of equals. The weakest must come to the conference table with the same confidence as do we, protected as we are by our moral, economic, and military strength. That table, though scarred by many fast frustrations -- past frustrations, cannot be abandoned for the certain agony of disarmament -- of the battlefield.

With George W. Bush's neoconzix out to pasture, one hopes that Obamites would instill the world with the values Ike spoke about. Pursuit of life, liberty and happiness is in short supply. Instead the neconzix zealots saw profit in sowing seeds of distrust and suspicion all over the world.

A suspicious world distrustful of others is the right environment to sell big ticket armaments to both sides. It is time MIC Complex veers of that thinking. If the world, not the limited 'world' of US conglomerates, but the world inhabited by six billion self destructs, then Einstein's prediction about the fourth world war would come true. "I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones."

In worldwide misery and mayhem is profit for Big Business. It is time to rob them and spread mutual trust and respect between individuals, groups and nations.

This is Not Cricket

temporal — Tue, 3 Mar 2009 22:19:19 EST

The Sri Lankan cricket team was attacked in Lahore yesterday by terrorists. SSS terms this a "shift". I think it is a "deterioration" or "escalation" of lawlessness. If Pakistan is to retain its independence this tide will not be curbed easily by a solitary act (like the restoration of the judiciary) nor by the efforts of one individual or one institution. Both Zardari led government and the Army under Kayani have appeared ineffective to stem this.

More pertinent is to view Tuesday's attack in the context of the peace deals in the Swat Valley and the tribal areas .. Prior to the signing of the deals, the matter of the release of militants who did not belong to the Swat area was raised, that is, non-Pashtun militants... However, after deciding on the level of compensation packages for the families of militants killed or injured by the security forces and other matters related to Swat and the tribal areas, the matter of non-Pashtun militants was deferred and the peace agreements were signed. In effect, non-Pashtun militants have been ignored and the attack in Lahore could be a bloody message to the government that the "Punjabi militants" have the capacity to cripple urban centers at any time and place of their choosing. Syed Saleem Shahzad

So what should the ordinary citizen do? Packing up and leaving is NOT an option. Burying their heads in the sand? More prayers to Allah? Joining the orthodox fringe? Or if not joining, then fighting them for their rights?

If the citizenry continues to be uninvolved, then by default the grounds will be left for a battle royale between forces of status quo and those of orthodoxy.

There is no dearth of external players who want to nudge and support these dark forces.

The Saudi Wahabi sponsorship of the fringe groups in Pakistan is hushed up or swept under the rug. Their role should be examined more closely. They have supported the orthodox fringe in the past (Afghanistan-Mujahideen nexus) and continue to do so to date.

Right now, collectively, (media, bloggers, political parties and government) all search for escape goats elsewhere - primarily the focus of their diatribes (not in any order) is the US Administration, the Talibans, the Indians (Raw...if you hear Hamid Gul croaking after the CID report was released) and the euphemistically termed Agencies.

But the blame game should be exposed for its fallacies.

If the ordinary citizen remains detached and uninvolved, then the march into disarray would continue unabated till it reaches the edge of the precipice - a rather uncomfortable and disturbing thought for all the players in the region.

And the world.

Bimaru States In India

Dr Bhaskar Dasgupta — Wed, 21 Jan 2009 04:53:38 EST

States and regions also become sick besides companies and human beings. When they become sick, you get a doctor, then you dose the patient with some foul smelling medicine, and then you get better, and to stay better, you keep on doing good healthy things so that you do not fall ill. But then, there are some fellows who will smoke, drink, eat fatty foods, then get a heart attack, and then continue on with being a bad old egg.

But what's with Bimaru in the title? It is a play on words, the word itself stands for 4 Indian states, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh. When you select those letters together, they mean sick (Bimar in Hindi means sick). And yes, Sir, they are sick in terms of almost every socio-economic indicator that is going.

Obviously, the reasons are multifarious, but mainly is because of the venality of the politicians of all stripes. Corruption is rife, illiteracy rampant, health is poor, economics horrible, generally a sad old reflection of what India's missed opportunities are. What makes it even worse is that these are poor states in a poor country, but other states have done much better. I realise that somebody has to come bottom, but when we are talking about poverty levels which are at or below starvation levels, then being at the bottom has severe implications for rest of the country. It does not also help that these states are some of the most populous in the country.

One would expect that every state would be hell bent in trying to improve its investment climate so that jobs are produced and better quality of life is achieved. But no, most of the leaders of these states are too busy being corrupt and feathering their own nests. By and large, they are a venal lot, seriously. And having had experience of living, studying, working, running firms in these states, I can personally say that the situation isnt improving fast. For entrepreneurs, it is tough, really tough. When you have borrowed money from your father's General Provident Fund (pension fund), and have invested in the anticipation that you will provide sufficient returns so that your old man is not left on the street, the last thing you need is your own government and its officials being like vultures, bent on capturing your hard earned money. Well, perhaps it is too much to expect, but what exactly are the problems facing entrepreneurs?

The World Bank recently released a paper comparing the investment climate in 16 Indian states for which they had data. Here's their main graphic which shows the investment climate in the 16 states.

So what did the author evaluate to make up the index? This is what I mean by saying that the issues with these states are simple but implementation needs just simple hard work. Nothing magical, just keep on plugging away at it. Here are some of the factors relating to infrastructure: Hours of power outages last year, Hours of telephone outages last year, Percentage of sales lost in transit, percentage of sales lost due to power outages, Days of inventories kept for main input (proxy for quality of transportation). What about inputs? Excess labor, Cost of finance: value of collateral required to obtain a loan, Proximity to raw materials (share of inputs bought by domestic sources) Proximity to domestic customers, Share of firms using new technology, Trade credit: share of sales sold on credit, Trade credit: share of inputs bought on credit.

Finally institutions make a huge amount of difference to the investment climate and the authors included security cost, losses due to theft , Manager time spent dealing with regulations, Days spent with officials to deal with regulations, consistent interpretation of rules, Tax evasion (% of sales not declared), Days to obtain a telephone connection, Days to obtain a electric connection, Days to obtain a construction permit, Bribes to "get things done", Share of firms reporting officials request gifts etc. etc.

While one can only exhort the states at the top to do much better, but its the stogy lump of undigested mass of states at the bottom which is the issue. Not only do the good state's get their tax revenues diverted to support these Bimaru states, the diversion of tax revenues is then not invested in productive matters. So, all in all, these are giant holes where a significant proportion of productive wealth generated by India disappears.

The concluding paragraph from the author is particular important but would not be particularly surprising.

The analysis of 46 investment climate variables shows that power, transportation, corruption, tax regulations and theft
remain the major bottlenecks policymakers need to address in order to improve the business environment in India.

Same old, same old. Long way to go, my friends, long way to go.

Technorati Tags: Corruption,Public Sector,Development,Economics,India,World Bank

Bush Signs Nuclear Energy Deal With India

DeeptiA — Thu, 9 Oct 2008 13:20:17 EDT

In a landmark deal that broke many facets of the international nuclear embargo on NPT (Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty) non-signatory nations, the US has finally signed a nuclear deal with India. This has been among the most heated and debated agreements in recent times. Part of a mission to make US-India ties closer, and to relax some of the restrictions on India in the nuclear area, the deal took a lot of diplomatic effort to get through, and the final legal step of the deal was signed in by President Bush. This last step was not necessary for India to go ahead with nuclear deals with other nations, but in light of the recent efforts by the US administration to push the deal, the Indian side decided to wait for the US Congress approval.

US President George W Bush has signed into law a nuclear deal with India, which ends a three-decade ban on US nuclear trade with Delhi. The landmark agreement was approved by the US Congress nearly a week ago. The deal will give India access to US civilian nuclear technology and fuel in return for inspections of its civilian, but not military, nuclear facilities.
India says the accord is vital to meet its rising energy needs. Critics say it creates a dangerous precedent. They say it effectively allows India to expand its nuclear power industry without requiring it to sign the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) as other nations must. The US restricted nuclear co-operation with India after it tested a nuclear weapon in 1974.

The Indian side faced tremendous challenges in getting this deal through. The process was started by a discussion with the BJP ruled Indian Government and the Bush Administration, and was then negotiated by the Congress Government with the US Administration a couple of years back. The Indian Government was a minority Government, and dependent on the Communist Parties and many other parties.

The Communist Parties, although against the nuclear policies of the Indian Government, have always despised a closer relationship with the United States and refused to flatly support such a policy, warning of a end to the Government (and since the Government was in a minority, an end seemed quite natural if their support ended).

For a long time, it seemed that the Government had given up, after all the nuclear deal was not a vote-winner, the deal also seemed to be against the interests of the Muslim minority vote that the Congress wants, and so on. And then, after many months, Dr. Manmohan Singh finally decided that enough is enough; he literally forced the Government to agree to his stand that they back the deal; to the extent that manipulations were allowed in order to make sure that the Government retained a majority in Parliament.

Getting the deal through the Nuclear Suppliers Group was another difficult task. There were many nations wedded to the cause of denial of technology to anybody who had not signed upto the NPT, and it required intensive effort by the US to get the group to agree. China in the end tried to prod other nations, but the US pressure (and a small amount of Indian pressure) was enough to get the member to eventually agree, even though it was totally under pressure.

The United States also had to face opposition internally, both within the Administration, and outside in the strategic community; people were reluctant to approve any exemptions to the NPT; thought was that this gave India the right to use its uranium resources to push its military weapons program; also that this gave the wrong signal to others such as Iran and Pakistan.

Overall, this deal will provide a vast impetus to the nuclear energy commercial business; with India planning a large number of reactors to meet a portion of its energy needs, a number of companies worldwide will benefit.

Arctic Ice Shrinks to Smallest Ever Coverage

Ashish — Mon, 1 Sep 2008 11:09:56 EDT

In spite of the science of global warming now being a science that is validated by most scientists, and with dire warnings from an international council of scientists about the accelerated pace of global warming, the world leaders are caught up in a debate over who makes what change, over whether the economic impact is worth taking, and so on. There is also a tussle between the developed world and the developing world over who will take the required actions to reduce the growth in emissions, and in fact, reverse the increase in emissions. People now recognize that even if emissions are totally frozen, it will take time for a reduction in the trend of global warming.

The extent of re-freezing of Arctic ice is an indicator of conditions, and the indicator is not so good. The ice in the Arctic is now at the second lowest point ever, crossing the second lowest point set last in 2005. There is an increased amount of speculation that a few years in the future, we will see an ice-free Arctic. Typically, some melting of the ice happens in the summer months, and re-freezing happens in the winter months, but this year, the ice has started melting earlier than in previous years, so there is a strong possibility that the region with ice could be even smaller than last year, which was the record year:

Researchers say the Arctic is now at a climatic "tipping point". "We could very well be in that quick slide downwards in terms of passing a tipping point," said Mark Serreze, a senior scientist at the Colorado-based NSIDC. "It's tipping now. We're seeing it happen now," he told the Associated Press news agency. Last September, the ice covered just 4.13 million sq km (1.59 million sq miles), the smallest extent seen since satellite imaging began 30 years ago. The 1980 figure was 7.8 million sq km (3 million sq miles).
Irrespective of whether the 2007 record falls in the next few weeks, the long-term trend is obvious, scientists said; the ice is declining more sharply than even a decade ago, and the Arctic region will progressively turn to open water in summers. Globally, the Arctic melt will reinforce warming because open water absorbs more of the Sun's energy than ice does.

There are people who are looking to see this open ice-free region as a place of increased economic opportunity, with the potential to drill for oil and gas, as well as to have a better shipping zone. However, this greater ice-free region will be a disaster globally, with it serving to increase the overall warmth of the earth's oceans; and if this impacts the Antarctic or Greenland ice shelves, then we will start seeing the rise in the waters worldwide.

In addition, this is called a tipping point because in the current scenario, the ice reflects sun light; however, as the ice melts, the open sea is far darker, and the water absorbs much more of this sunlight, causing the water to warm up more. As this continues to happen, there is a point where the warming water causes more ice to melt, and reaches a runaway point where the ice melt starts to become much more rapid. In the meantime, the debate over who will do what, and what the targets should be for ensuring that emissions stabilize and then start reducing is an ongoing debate, mired in geo-politics.

Broadband on Batteries

Shantanu Dutta — Tue, 19 Aug 2008 01:35:47 EDT

While booking an air ticket online the other day, there was a power cut just at the point when the gateway was processing the payment from the credit card and the modem shut down. The resulting confusion led to stress as I tried to contact the travel portal, the bank and the airline to get a clear picture regarding ticketing, charging of payment and so on. Online travel portals are not your typical travel agent of old whom you knew by name and had done business with for years. The anonymity of the voice on the other side of the line, the peculiarity of the problem and their obvious inability to understand, let alone help only added to the confusion. This practically undid any advantages that doing transactions online might have provided.

In India, there is a lot of political backing from both the major political formations to increase internet penetration which is among the lowest in the Asia–Pacific region.

“India has the lowest Internet penetration rate at 3 percent in the region, according to a survey by U.S.-based digital research firm comScore Inc. According to the survey

- South Korea boasts of the greatest rate of Internet usage, with 65 percent of its population using the Internet in May.

- China clearly has the largest online population with 91.5 million people. The number of monthly unique Internet users in India is just a quarter of that figure at 22.8 million.”

- South Korea has the most active online population, using the Internet an average of 17.4 days per person in May, and dedicating 31.2 hours to viewing 4,546 pages during the month. Indians on the other hand got onto Cyberspace an average of only 11.4 days per person in May and viewed 1,400 pages over 14.7 hours.

Clearly though, the government is not pushing for internet penetration so that citizens can watch videos on Youtube. Rather the intent is to promote e-commerce and e-governance through the internet platform and thereby increase productivity and efficiency. While all that is a good thing, the commensurate development of an infrastructure backbone is missing.

For instance, look at energy and power generation. After all, my story started with the recounting of a power failure in the middle of a commercial transaction. Even as I write this, electricity in India’s national capital goes on and off several times a day.

Anybody who has ever experienced a power cut in India would know empirically that India simply does not produce enough electricity for its needs and will not do so in the foreseeable future although the national electricity policy envisages power for all by 2012 and per capita availability of power to be increased to more than 1,000 units by 2011-12. With the deadline barely four years away it is impossible that this goal would be ever met.

While industrialization is progressing at a rapid pace, the fact that power generation has not kept up has meant that even relatively less industrialized states like West Bengal which once were power surplus, have power cuts now. In fact, the more industrialized you are, the more is the demand. Maharashtra, for example, faces a deficit of more than 30 per cent In fact, the colloquial term for power cuts “load shedding” has now become part of the country’s rural folk lore.

As I complete typing this piece on a laptop and upload it from a speedy GPRS modem, I remind myself that having a increasingly high tale density of phones and laying strategies to wire up the country to the customer’s doorstep and using Wi Max to connect up the whole country won’t work if we don’t have a proper infra structural backbone. You can’t run a broadband service operating on batteries ! It just does not work !

Bernie, You Touched Me

temporal — Mon, 18 Aug 2008 08:00:13 EDT

I did not know you Bernie. Can I call you Bernie?

Were you married? Did you celebrate your 20th or 25th anniversary? Did you have children? Were you a good father? Were you good friend?

If I do some research I can find out more about you. But that would be later. Here in this park I can only guess.

You must have had your share of cloud nine days just as you would have had pit days.

****

The full moon peaked through the clouds and the waves in Lake Ontario near Lock 1 of the Welland canal reflected the peek-a-boo moon. the light house of the St. Catharines Marina warned the sailors. Sitting under a weeping willow, just east of Jones Beach, the distant lights of Whitby and Oshawa visible over the horizon, a sense of calm prevailed.

It was an unreal calm that for a few moments pushed the headlines mentioning Georgia, Russia, Kashmir, Occupied Palestine, Musharraf far away.

Few moments? Try 3:30 am! Next morning….er….afternoon, after brunch we headed out to a local bird sanctuary and zoo. In the pond a turtle crept up on a rock and was philosophically musing about the world around. A flock of Canada Geese rested in the shade. Past the pond a sign read Nature Trail. I thought, nature does not trail, we do.

There were weeping willows, oaks, maples, birches on this trail. At the end of this short trail we entered a well manicured small park: a memorial to the 47 Canadians who were killed in the twin tower collapse.

Trees found in Eastern Canada were planted and a plaque in front of each tree mentioned the names – Cynthia Connolly, Albert Alfie William Elmarry, Colin Macarthur…

I stopped at Bernard Mascrenhas, born Karachi, 1950.

****

I don’t know you Bernie. Your life was extinguished at a ripe age by the dastardly act of a former CIA golden boy Osama bin Laden. He did not know or care that you were on the 97th floor of the North Tower.

After the fall of former USSR, the US desperately wanted an opponent and 9/11 created that opportunity. At the cost of innocent civilian lives like yours and the others whose misfortune it was to be in the twin towers that day, they nearly succeeded in creating an enemy group that could fill the vacuum of the erstwhile bi-polar world. It found willing accomplices in Islamophobes organizations and states.

Whether Osama still sings to Langley, Va. tunes is open to conjectures.

At lock 1, of the Welland Canal I saw BBC Elbe pass through. I could have touched it. It appeared huge, almost 12 stories high. Later I saw it in Lake Ontario, still big, then growing smaller before fading from view. You will always be close to those who love you, even though you have faded from the memory of others.

I am against the loss of a single civilian life at the hands of a deluded individual, an organization or a state. Not knowing you personally I mourn you. May you be peaceful wherever you are. And may the tree planted in your honour thrive.

The Russia-Georgia Conflict - Stoking The Embers Of The Cold War

C R Sridhar — Fri, 15 Aug 2008 00:18:40 EDT

On 7th August 2008, Friday, Georgia, which became independent of the Soviet Union in 1991 began an offensive on Tskhinvali, the capital of South Ossetia. Fashioned along the lines of a blitzkrieg, the Georgian military launched a heavy rocket and artillery fire and air strikes, killing hundreds of innocent civilians. An American witness Joe Mestas who was living in South Ossetia at the time of the military offensive said ‘I thought that since U.S. is supporting Georgia there would be some control over the situation in South Ossetia and that there would be a peaceful solution to the conflict. But what is happening there now it’s not just war, but war crimes. George Bush and [Georgian president] Mikhail Saakashvili should answer to the crimes that are being committed – the killing of innocent people, running over by tanks of children and women, throwing grenades into cellars where people are hiding.’¹

The Russian response was swift and bloody. Russia sent tanks and troops into the province and carried out series of air strikes on Georgian military targets. By Saturday the Russian air force pounded the nearby town of Gori. The Russian troops went deep into Georgian territory and the battered Georgian forces had to be pulled back to defend its capital, Tbilisi. The massive show of force by Russia was understandable as South Ossetia has close to 90% of the citizens having Russian citizenship. Moreover, the province broke away from Georgia in the nineties when it declared itself independent. South Ossetia has closely aligned itself with Russia.

No roses for Mr. Putin

The simmering discontent between Georgia and Russia arose over an event, which was called the Rose Revolution of 2003. This was a bloodless coup, which saw the ouster of President Eduard Shevardnadze. Mikheil Saakashvili who entered the Parliamentary building interrupting a speech of Shevardnadze forcing him to escape with his bodyguards. Eduard Shevardnadze finally stepped down on November 23, 2003 to avoid civil war. The new ruling elites- Mikhail Saakashvili, Nino Burdzhanadze and Zurab Zhvania- took control of power in Georgia.

Mikheil Saakashvili who is now the President of Georgia is a graduate of George Washington University and studied law at Columbia Law School. He is known to support US role in the Caucasus. He has publicly supported Bush in his global commitment to expand democracy and has extolled the virtues of real market economy. This sent alarm bells ringing in the Kremlin as Putin and his political advisors saw the hand of U.S. in the Rose Revolution. The alarm of Kremlin was perhaps justified as the Wall Street reported on November 24, 2003 ‘the three politicians [Saakashvili, Burdzhanadze and Zhvania] are backed by a raft of nongovernmental organizations that have sprung up since the fall of the Soviet Union. Many of the NGOs have been supported by American and other Western foundations, spawning a class of young, English-speaking intellectuals hungry for pro-Western reforms.’²

The relationship between Georgia and Russia also soured because Mikheil Saakashvili lobbied hard for Georgia to become a member of NATO with the active support of U.S. The Russians perceived the situation as potentially dangerous as they saw Georgia as becoming a NATO outpost posing a threat to Russian territorial interests. Vladimir Putin- the Russian President- voiced his strong protests accusing U.S and NATO as gradually encroaching Russian space.

The Politics of Oil

In a detailed article titled ‘Oil intrigue and US Realpolitik heighten tensions in the Caucasus’ the authors say ‘The US-backed coup in Georgia and Washington’s subsequent diplomatic sabre-rattling have nothing to do with the spread of democracy or similar clichés. Georgia, strategically situated between the Black Sea and the oil-rich Caspian, has long been a focus of intrigue and conflict between the great powers. Following the break-up of the Soviet Union, the goal of weakening Russian influence and achieving US domination of Georgia and the rest of the Caucasus became a central preoccupation of US imperialist policy.’³

The U.S. interest in Georgia lies in its geographical position. As Dr Alexey Muraviev, strategic affairs analyst in his article says ‘the control of Georgia gives access to the oil and gas rich areas of the Caspian Sea and former Soviet Central Asia. It allows firming up control over the Turkish Straits, a critically important shipping point. And further, it reduces Russia and its influence in some critical areas such as the Balkans, the Mediterranean and the Middle East.’⁴

Another event of great importance to understand the cold war rivalry surfacing between U.S and Russia is building of the Baku pipeline (BTC), which was completed in May 2005. Costing 3.6 billion dollars, it is one of the most expensive oil projects. The interests in this massive project involves BP. The other partners are Unocal (US) and Turkish Petroleum Inc. The oil is pumped through pipelines and shipped via the Turkish port Ceyhan on the Mediterranean. Significantly, Ceyhan is located near to the US air base Incirlik. The pipeline project had top-heavy advisors who held extremely senior positions in the government of US. Some of the important officials - Zbigniew Brzezinski, Henry Kissinger, James Baker III, Brent Scowcroft, and Dick Cheney- have shaped US strategic oil interests in the region.⁵

The battle lines and emerging power blocs

Since the breaking up of the Soviet Union, the politics of the Caspian region has become complex, volatile and dangerous, as there is scramble for the oil-rich resources of the Caspian from the United States. In this scenario, power blocs have emerged with opposing strategies-‘ On the one side is an alliance of US-Turkey-Azerbaijan and, since the Rose Revolution, Georgia, that small but critical country directly on the pipeline route. Opposed to it, in terms of where the pipeline route carrying the Caspian oil should go, is Russia, which until 1990 held control over the entire Caspian outside the Iran littoral. Today, Russia has cultivated an uneasy but definite alliance with Iran and with Armenia, in opposition to the US group.’⁶ The geopolitical strategy of U.S has been to bring regime changes friendly to US interests in countries (earlier Soviet bloc), which are located in pipeline routes from the Caspian Sea. The scramble for oil by these power blocs would provide flashpoints for conflicts in these regions.

The Georgia-US-Israeli Nexus

The US interest in Georgia is shaped by the scramble for oil in the region. The Western media such as BBC, CNN and other electronic media simplify complex issues pertaining to the present conflict by defining it as big power such as Russia intimidating a small country.

What the mainstream media did not report is the extensive involvement of US-NATO in the planning of the military offensive against South Ossetia which is at the cross roads of strategic oil and gas pipeline routes. US has provided extensive military aid to Georgia with transport planes (US) assisting the redeployment of 2000 Georgian forces in Iraq back to the country to fight. It is also believed that US provided logistical support to Georgia to move 11 tons of military cargo. In the past, Israel has also supplied military equipment to Georgia. As Peter Hirschberg reports ‘In recent years, ties have also taken on a military dimension, with military industries in Israel supplying Georgia with some $200 million worth of equipment since 2000. This has included remotely piloted planes, rockets, night-vision equipment, other electronic systems, and training by former senior Israeli officers.’⁷

Israel is also an interested party to get the oil from the Caspian region. ‘What is envisaged is to link the BTC pipeline to the Trans-Israel Eilat-Ashkelon pipeline, also known as Israel’s Tip line, from Ceyhan to the Israeli port of Ashkelon. Turkey and Israel are negotiating the construction of a multi-million-dollar energy and water project that will transport water, electricity, natural gas and oil by pipelines to Israel, with the oil to be sent onward from Israel to the Far East’⁸

The Seeds of Cold War

The Russian perspective on this issue is best summarized by Komerzant, Moscow, 14 July 2006) ‘[The BTC pipeline] considerably changes the status of the region’s countries and cements a new pro-West alliance. Having taken the pipeline to the Mediterranean, Washington has practically set up a new bloc with Azerbaijan, Georgia, Turkey and Israel.’ A fact, which would be resisted by Russia, as she perceives the threat of the encirclement of countries friendly to US. This was made amply clear by the sharp violent response to Georgia’s military attack on South Ossetia.

Even though cease-fire has been declared between Russia and Georgia, there has been an uneasy peace. Is this a lull before the storm? Is the recent conflict in the Caucasus a dress rehearsal for the more serious conflicts to break out between US and Russia? With Russia flush with oil money and flexing its nationalist muscles the future holds the fear of a sharpened cold war. A war that we thought lay buried in the memories of history.

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1 This is Genocide: American Witness Says U.S. and Georgia to answer for violence - Russia Today - Monday, Aug 11, 2008.
2 Georgia's "rose revolution"; made in America coup- Barry Grey and Vladimir Volkov, wsws.org
3 Oil intrigue and U.S. Realpolitik- Barry Grey and Vladimir Volkov, wsws.org
4 US plays a shadowy hand in Georgian conflict- Dr Alexey Muraviev, strategic affairs analyst, Crikely.com
5 Colour Revolutions, Geopolitics and the Baku pipeline-F. William Engdahl-Global Research- June 25,2005.
6 Colour Revolutions, Geopolitics and the Baku pipeline-F. William Engdahl-Global Research June 25,2005.
7 Israeli Arms Sales to Georgia Raise New Concerns- Peter Hirschberg - anti-war.com
8 War in the Caucasus: Towards a broader Russia-US Military confrontation?-Michel Chossudovsky- Global Research