Desicritics Category: Politics: Elections

Counterpoint: Why Women's Reservation is a (Unreservedly) Good Idea

Dweep — Mon, 8 Mar 2010 08:53:11 EST

Writing here on the Women's Reservation Bill, Sandeep Bansal provides us with the equivocal conclusion that "reservation is an easy shortcut," that while laudable in parts must have "proper backup steps to have any significant impact." As a counterpoint, I believe it is worthwhile looking again at the very valid questions he raises, viz:

Do we need reservation for women?
Is reservation really needed at the highest level?
Are reservations really going to make any difference?
Do we need sub-quotas?

Do we need reservations for women?

That, of course, is a matter of opinion. More important is the question of why we might want reservations. Two reasons come to mind.

At the level of principle, this might be because in an ideal, fair, and just society lawmakers would represent their consituents - in the ratio of the constituents. Ideally, that representation should emerge naturally - not by legislation. But as Sandeep points out, reservations are one way to empower women and to change attitudes, so as to lead to that natural order.

A second reason, often overlooked, is that such a policy is likely to increase the pool of talent needed at the top of our political class. Few would argue that India's politics suffers from a lack of credible leaders. To the extent that that is the result of limiting our talent pool to men only, this policy is likely to increase the number - if not the probability - of better leaders.

Is reservation really needed at the highest level?

Sandeep argues that reservations might be necessary at the lowest levels to "bring about social change", but perhaps at the highest level "merit should prevail." And he argues that there is a good reason for the lack of women at the top - their family duties.

This explaination is hardly satisfactory. Women may well have "family duties" but that is not why they do not reach the top. They fail to do so because they often have no opportunity to balance that "duty" with their professional aspirations. Where such opportunity is provided they manage to be both good mothers and good leaders. This is evident from a recent NYTimes article on India's banking industry:

HSBC, JPMorgan Chase, Royal Bank of Scotland, UBS and Fidelity International in India are run by women. So is the country’s second-biggest bank, Icici Bank, and its third-largest, Axis Bank. Women head investment banking operations at Kotak Mahindra and JPMorgan Chase and the equities division of Icici. Half of the deputy governors at the Reserve Bank of India are women.

One in five of India’s big bank, insurance and money-management companies is headed by a woman, according to a study by the headhunting group EMA Partners. By contrast, there are no women leading major American or European banks, and no woman has ever run a Wall Street investment bank.

Are reservations going to make a difference?

Sandeep argues that a reservation policy brings with it the risk of extending that policy to perpetuity. Yes, that risk is certainly there - but do the immediate resulting benefits outweigh that possibility? And even if that risk remains, it is a risk derived not from the principle (of better representation) itself, but from how that principle is translated into policy. So, avoiding that risk is simply a matter of better policy design - for instance by having rotating quotas to avoid institutionalization of the positive discrimination.

Sandeep concludes his answer to this question by saying it is too early to tell. But is it?

Enough countries now have quotas of one form of another to provide indications of the impact - both on performance of politicians and on public attitudes to women at the top. Indeed, if the objective of this policy is to encourage greater female representation and change attitudes, India's own experiment with reservation at the panchayat and sarpanch levels offers substantial hope for a positive outcome:

Here, the evidence from a study of councils in urban Mumbai points to a positive effect. Women who have gained political office are more likely to run and to win in elections where there are no quotas.

Both men and women report a higher assessment of women’s performance as leaders once they have experienced it. A study of the state of West Bengal suggests that bias against women leaders remains, but is less likely to be based on the assumption they will prove incompetent.

Do we need sub-quotas?

For one thing, sub-quotas institutionalize into perpetuity exactly the kind of positive discrimination that Sandeep cautions against earlier in his post. Moreover, he argues that "real empowerment" can only happen at the bottom, but we need proper representation "across communities" at the top.

It is true that a women's reservation bill without sub-quotas will benefit certain sub-groups more than others. But is that reason enough for sub-quotas? Or, can that problem be overcome in other way?

Which groups benefit will depend very much on which seats are reserved. For instance, if a muslim-majority constituency is reserved for women it is extremely likely that most parties will field muslim candidates and the winner would be a muslim. Hence, again the problem of unequal representation against communities is one of design (i.e. which seats are reserved), rather than one of principle (i.e. having sub-quotas).

Finally, of course, we must also acknowledge that a single bill cannot solve all social injustices. It is useful, therefore, to remind us of why we should have a reservation policy. If the objective is to increase women's representation, then this bill should address that problem, regardless of others that exist in society.

Conclusion

Women's reservation has been a long-time coming. This bill may not be the best solution or only solution to empowering women. But let not the perfect be the enemy of the good.

Women's Reservation Bill: Lottery System to Replace Democracy in India

Sumanth — Fri, 5 Mar 2010 05:38:43 EST

Italy was a fascist country before and during World War II. Edvige Antonia Albina Maino (Sonia Gandhi) like a Monarch feels like giving a special gift to Women on International Women’s day on March 8th. She wants the sacred Constitution of India to be amended just for that wish. (Gift)

On 8th March, 2010 the puppet Government at New Delhi controlled by Sonia plans to introduce a special bill in upper house (Rajya Sabha) of Indian parliament for amending the sacred constitution. This amendment is to stop 110 million Indian Men from contesting elections in their own constituencies, so that women can win these elections. Sounds ridiculous? Is not it? Yes. That’s where the Indian democracy has degenerated into.

If this fascist action succeeds, then the Indian democracy will be reduced to a Lottery. Yes, you heard it right. According to Abraham Lincoln “Democracy is government of the people, by the people, for the people”, but according to Sonia Gandhi democracy is: Lottery.

Imagine, Manjunatha Gundappa(name changed) wants to contest in Mandya and he heads towards the local election commissioner office (or registrar office) for filing his nominations. As he reaches to the office, Manjunatha is told by the officials, “Sir, please wait. In another one hour there will be a Lottery and then we all will know whether you have the right to file your nomination or not. If the Lottery does not favour you, then you can get lost and come back to us after 5 years”.

WTF?!!

If constitution is amended according to the current women’s reservation bill, then the democracy in India will be governed by this Lottery System. The main opposition party BJP also has joined this drama and wants to mutilate the constitution written by Dr. Ambedkar.

It seems “Women’s Reservation “is very close to Sonia Gandhi’s heart. Sonia Gandhi is a member of parliament and she went to people last year for votes so that she gets a chance to serve the people. She should keep the matters of her heart to herself. Being a servant of the citizens, she has to follow not her heart, but the hearts of the citizens of India. (link)

Now, what does the citizens of India say? A poll conducted by NDTV has more than 89% opposing the “women’s reservation bill”, while 10% supported it. (NDTV Poll)

Does Sonia Gandhi, having Italian origin respect the verdict of the people? It does not seem so. May be she feels her heart’s desire is more important than the people’s wishes.

Now, it is claimed that Sonia’s Congress Party, BJP and the Communists (CPI/CPM) want 33% seats be reserved for women in parliament and state Assemblies. These parties fielded 40,42 and 5 women candidates respectively in last Lok Sabha elections for 544 seats. (detailed article).

Now, if women’s reservation is so important and no one can wait any longer, then I have a much better solution. Sonia Gandhi of Congress, Sushma Swaraj of BJP and Brinda Karat of CPM can tell 30% of their existing male Parliament members to resign based on a lottery on Monday, March 8th. In 2 months, we will have bi-elections, where Sonia, Sushma and Brinda will field only female candidates. So, we get 30% representation of women in parliament in just 2 months instead of waiting for another 4 years.

For that, no constitution amendment is needed and men will not lose their right to contest in elections and democracy is saved. Can the Monarch have some mercy on us, the citizens of this country?

Senile Sena Ails Maharashtra

sufferingsocrates — Thu, 14 Jan 2010 00:41:46 EST

Shiv Sena has yet again reposed the faith of the Sena brand of politics by announcing that it won't allow Australian cricketers to enter Maharashtra to play cricket matches. It seems like a blanket ban on Australian cricketers from entering into Maharashtra alone, though I am not so sure if all the Indians attacked or abused in Australia are all Maharastrians. This seems like another effort by the Shiv Sena supremo to win back the lost sheen of his party after last year's Maharashtra Assembly elections.

In the Maharashtra elections last year, the MNS made significant inroads with its bizarre and at times inexplicable campaign surrounding Marathi Manoos. Being their first assembly election, the fire brigand leadership of Raj Thackeray helped in winning important seats. On the other hand, a struggling BJP, and an inspiration seeking Shiv Sena lost out in a very big way. Shiv Sena especially felt the pangs of separation bite them badly, after Raj Thackeray had parted ways three years ago to form MNS. MNS announced its arrival by eating into the vote bank of Shiv Sena and as a result, the Sena-BJP combine.

It now seems a role reversal for Shiv Sena. The Shiv Sainiks, especially in the days following their election debacle in Maharashtra have been following the Raj Thackeray brand of politics. While MNS Woke up with Sid to remind Maharashtrians of Bombay's rechristened name, Shiv Sainiks followed suit, by targeting yet another Bollywood movie, Kurbaan. Cinema has been of late found as "objectionable by convenience" by political parties to raise their plank at the state and national level. When a bare backed Kareena Kapoor showed up on posters of Kurbaan, Shiv Sainiks protested against the screening of the movie. Though the Shiv Sainiks draped sarees and even went to Kareena's house to give her a saree, did any of them bother gifting her a blouse, a petticoat and the necessary lingerie' ?

Then there was Sachin Tendulkar, who I have admittedly been admiring more of late, after criticising and disliking him for almost two decades. This after he took India home in a record chase against England and also won India the tri-series finals in Australia in 2008. When Sachin said he is an Indian first and then a Maharashtrian, unusually enough it was Bal Thackeray who questioned Sachin's commitment to the Marathi cause and criticised Sachin. Sadly for the aging Thackeray, neither could he emulate an MNS like uproar of violence, nor did he win any support from anyone in the country.

It seems like Bal Thackeray is trying to battle his senility and bring some semblance of hope into the rapidly diminishing presence of Shiv Sena in Maharashtra. Why else would a veteran political leader want to tread the same path of that of his nephew who was once his own pupil. There is definitely no inspiration or spark left in the aging Shiv Sena rank. If the assembly elections last year were anything to go by, the Shiv Sena's decline, along with the aging of Bal Thackeray looks more inevitable than ever.

Women's Reservation Bill: Denying Citizens Rights to Contest in Elections

Sumanth — Tue, 12 Jan 2010 12:56:49 EST

This is not the first time that attempts are made at subverting democracy in India. In 1974, Indira Gandhi created a massive crisis in India by declaring emergency, suspending elections and civil liberties. She threw most of her political opponents into jail. She was the mother-in-law of Sonia Gandhi, the chairperson of current ruling Congress Party.(link)

The latest attempt by Sonia Gandhi and Jayanthi Natarajan is towards reservation of 33% of seats of country’s parliament and state assembly for women. They want to do it by preventing men from contesting elections in these constituencies (link).

Since the last couple of years opportunist feminists have tried for 33% reservation in parliament. Their goals are simple. They need some more numbers in parliament to pass some more discriminatory laws against males. At present, the feminist politicians are in a very awkward position due to large scale misuse of anti-dowry laws, section 498a of IPC and also DV act. This has made it very difficult for them to get the sexual harassment at workplace law passed in parliament without the “prevention of misuse clause”. Their anger and frustration has hit the skies.

So, the feminists in politics and outside think that once women get 33% reservation in parliament, then they can officially declare men as second class citizens by preventing them from contesting in elections. After that, they may think of denying the men’s right to own property, once they get married. The problem with democracy in India is that parliament can officially sanction discrimination against any section of population and it is constitutional once such discriminatory bills are passed.

India is not the only country in the world, where there is under representation of women in politics. There were only 38 women who became senators in US history till today. The US senate does not reserve seats for women. Now, the irony is that feminists want to create an example in the world by reserving seats for women in Indian parliament and the fund donors from US are also supporting it. If seats in parliament have to be reserved for women, then the constitution of this crippled democracy will be further mutilated with another major constitutional amendment. Democracy will be dead, if men are told that they cannot contest election in a particular constituency, just because of their gender.

In the recent LS elections(link), out of the 443 candidates declared by the Congress, the party pitched only 40 women candidates (less than 10%). Opposition BJP was no better with the party fielding only 43 women candidates out of the total 427 seats. Left parties, the self claimed flag-bearer of the cause of women reservation, had the worst record of women representation in their list of candidates with the left parties not even giving 5% of the tickets to women candidates for the 15th Lok Sabha elections. While, the CPM only fielded 4 women candidates out of the 80 declared seats, the CPI gave only 3 women candidates out of the 45 seats it was contesting. Still, people made 61 women candidates win the elections.

So, the Congress Govt controlled by Mrs.Sonia Gandhi failed to field even 100 female candidates. It’s difficult to believe that a more than 100 year old political party does not have 100 worthy female leaders to contest parliamentary elections. The truth is the older male politicians are not ready to give up their seats for females. Even Sonia Gandhi was powerless in front of these old politicians. She cannot risk a major revolt in Congress party, if she had fielded women in 30% of parliamentary seats.

So, just because of the stubborn behaviour of old male politicians, Sonia Gandhi and Jayanthi Natarajan are thinking of amending constitution. If Sonia Gandhi can’t take risks of fielding 100 female candidates in elections, then why should the citizens take a risk of having a mutilated constitution?

The Congress Govt tried to table this bill in the parliament before elections in 2009. Still, Sonia Gandhi fielded only 40 women in the elections. If Sonia Gandhi does not have integrity and courage, then why should I give up my choice to contest elections in my own constituency?

People have not discriminated women in the national elections. One out of 12 women candidates won in elections compared to one out of 15 male candidates. If Sonia Gandhi and other Congress leaders can’t trust women, then that is not my problem. Why should I give up my democratic rights and choices, just because of discrimination of women by Sonia Gandhi, Congress leaders, Brinda Karat or her husband Prakash Karat?

I and my friends did not stop Kiran Shaw Majumdar, Sudha Murthy, Jayanthi Natarajan, Uma Bharati or Kiran Bedi from contesting in elections. Then, why should I be stopped from contesting elections, just because of my gender?

When Sonia Gandhi does not have integrity, then she should clean it up by taking responsibility for the same and correct herself instead of preventing some citizens from contesting in elections. Otherwise, the solution will create a bigger mess than the problem itself. It is like:

“The Patient has got Piles, and the Doctor is getting ready to do Open Heart Surgery.”

The Constitution of India will be protected at any cost. This Rape of Constitution will be stopped. People will not tolerate any further amendments of Constitution, because they have every right to protect the democracy and civil liberties using all possible means.

All political parties, small and big will be warned against voting for a constitutional amendment, which denies citizens their right to contest in elections. Massive letter and email campaigns will start to see that democracy does not remain a joke anymore in this country of more than a billion people. We in India say, "Satyameva Jayate (Truth only Wins)". There be victory of truth and integrity.

Politics - Going Rogue

Arundhati Thapar — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 00:12:34 EST

Power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely - these words ring true of not only the entire socio political setup of this world that we live in but also of things on a much smaller stage - everyday living and issues surrounding who rules who?

It would be an interesting experiment to give power in the hands of the downtrodden of today - the ones who curse the system and wish politicians dead. Would they then establish a just world order or fall prey to the very temptations and machinations they abhor today?

Would this then answer the quintessential question? Chicken or egg? Which came first?

Is it the wrong kind of people who go into politics, accumulate wealth and become powerful and then perpetrate the hideous culture that has become the hallmark of politics across the globe?

Or is it normal people ...people like you and me, but maybe with a dash more of ambition thrown in, who get into politics, wake up to the immense thrill and kick that power gives and then start on the journey of corruption to maintain that power?

Two old political scandals, or shall I say mishaps, have returned to the fore in the public arena this week. They belong in two different continents but the undertones are similar....

As the Chilcot enquiry begins its work to look into the legality of the war in Iraq, the most palpable sentiment around is hatred for Blair. Yet this is a man who could do no wrong a few years ago. A darling of the masses, twice elected to power, with a huge halo round his head and the glow of his charismatic personality radiating far and wide.

Did Tony Blair start off as a well meaning Prime Minister who seriously wanted to do the right thing, defend democracy around the world and establish a just world order? Few believe this today but in the heydays of Labour supremacy in Britain, he did have people enthralled by his sharp oratory and the look of earnestness about him. Did he start off as a smarmy, sly man or was it years in politics that made him cynical to the extent that many now are ready to believe he took the country into an illegal war? How cynical do you have to be to do something you know will cause immeasurable death and destruction, reduce an entire nation to a rubble and ruin the lives of generations to come?

Opponents of the war hope the inquiry will establish that the decision to invade Iraq was illegal and based on flawed or deliberately misleading intelligence about the risks posed by Saddam Hussein. Whatever else the enquiry achieves, simply by being in the news the past few months, it has played a major role in Blair losing out in the race to be EU President.

The other case in point is our very own L K Advani. In a dramatic turn of events, -the Liberhan commission report, which was 17 years in the making, was tabled after details of its conclusions - apparently implicating top leaders of the Hindu nationalist opposition in the Babri masjid destruction - were leaked on monday, triggering uproar in the lower house. Personally, I have always found it extremely difficult to digest that Advani and co had at any point acted out of 'Ram bhakti'. It never was a campaign of moral outrage against historical acts of vandalism or a campaign to reignite religious sentiments in the hearts of the non believers. It always was a cynical political act directed towards exploiting the extreme naivety of the electorate, wasn't it? Yet at the time, even the intelligentsia was divided about whether to celebrate or lament their growing influence.

Who knows if these two men started out believing in a just cause and simply 'went rogue'. (Ha ha....could not keep our darling Ms Palin out of this) Time will tell.

Satire: The MNS - Mentally N-ill Sena

sufferingsocrates — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 08:38:15 EST

Note : This post does not intend to hurt or insult Maharashtrians. It is only an attempt to scoff at the absurdity of MNS in trying to push their agenda. I whole-heartedly respect every human and am proud to be an Indian (HINDUSTANI!) and respect every Indian, wherever (s)he hails from. Only after my identity of an Indian, can I claim to be part of any state in India.

Imagine a scenario: Ponting takes the field in the mysteriously titled Honour Series (The what?!. Courtesy:Times Now) or the still more bizarre Grudge Series(The what what ?!, courtesy:Headlines Today) in the final ODI in Mumbai tomorrow. Imagine the contradictorily paradoxical coincidence of Ponting at the press conference with Dhoni. Ponting, speaking in Marathi !?! duh ! MNS workers wielding swords and threatening the Aussie cricket captain at the post match podium - "We don't even care what happens to non-Marathis being assaulted in Australia. But while in India, and that too in Maharashtra's capital, you better be talking in Marathi. We have recorded your on-field conversations. They were in English. How dare you not learn Marathi and set foot on our proud Marathi land ?!" Ponting blinks - "?!?!"

Imagine a scenario: Call Center and BPO firms in Mumbai and Pune. MNS workers would be at the office premises, shouting slogans - "We demand all call centers be shut until the calls are answered in Marathi!". All the employees would be stunned and scratching their heads. But, the justification could well neigh be, more employment opportunities. Don't get it ? Employ a Marathi translator (re-director ?) for every Call Center employee.

Wait. Should the voices on the other side of a call also be in Marathi ?! I wonder. More technological advances to be ushered in. When a caller, calls a number which is at that moment in Maharashtra, owing to pressure from MNS, the incoming voice data service provider should translate the language in the air waves into Marathi and transmit to the receiver ! Language support should be enabled, even if the call is from a tribal land in Somalia. Wow, more employment opportunities. Courtesy, MNS !

Oops, BTW if you are at a cafe' IN MAHARASHTRA and even by the remotest of chances have opened this link, please have Marathi aided specs, so that what you read transforms magically into Marathi and you can read it ! More employment for ophthalmologists ! Look at the advancement for science !

More to follow after the next insane act of MNS. Abu Azmi for the moment has oathfully taken his cabinet position in the Maharashtra Assembly.

Hooliganism in Maharashtra Assembly - Whither Democracy?

Aaman Lamba — Mon, 9 Nov 2009 08:38:03 EST

Democracy, that fragile and complex idea, is at once an ideal state and equally an expression of social opinion. We were gifted democracy by the framers of our Constitution, who knew well the dangers inherent in such a mechanism of governance.

The newly elected government of Maharashtra has had quite an extended labour, waiting like some 'rough beast' to be born. It's hour having come at last, with the convoluted power (and pelf) sharing agreement between the Congress (I) and the NCP agreed, today was the first day of the new Assembly. The commonplace event of the swearing-in of the new legislators was disrupted by MLAs belonging to Raj Thackeray's MNS, demanding the oath be read out in Marathi, in keeping with their claims to represent the 'Marathi Manoos'. They even resorted to physical violence and brought the proceedings to a halt.

The four MLAs involved in the incident have been suspended for four years and all other parties have condemned the event and spoken out against 'divisive forces', but the matter does not end there. The country has been divided before - first on religious lines, and then again a redistricting on linguistic boundaries, neither effort succeeding (or even trying) to build a national identity.

The 'spirit of India' as Ramin Jehanbegloo calls it in his seminal work, is its commitment to pluralism from ancient times. Jehanbegloo, an Iranian political philosopher, talks of Mahatma Gandhi's efforts to 'democratize democracy', wherein he talked not only of the rights of citizens, as in the Western tradition, but also their duties. In Mahatma Gandhi's famous words, "The spirit of democracy cannot be imposed from without. It has to come from within."

It is perhaps therefore unfortunate that democracy itself seems to be in the hands of two opposing forces in Gandhi's India, six decades after his death. On the one hand, we have democracy for sale to the highest bidder, as seen in the horse-trading of MLAs and ministries in Maharashtra, Karnataka, and the corruption of Central & state-level governments. On the other hand, the fundamentalist, illiberal perspective seeks to cordon off the open ground that developed in hitherto feudal India and on the same lines, rule by brute force. The MNS belongs to the latter camp, but they are not alone there by a long shot. Indeed, one might find much crossing over between both camps, as it were.

There are many warnings through the ages of the risk to public interest by individuals who put their private interests ahead of all else. Fortunately for us, we are still a democracy, and counterpoint voices many. Unfortunately, the framers of the Indian Constitution thought the safeguards of keeping the three pillars of the democracy separate and equal would suffice as checks and balances. This has been borne out in practice, for the most part, yet, citizens lack effective mechanisms of recall and repudiation of abhorrent views, other than to speak out or approach the courts if a specific law is violated.

As George Bernard Shaw noted, "Democracy is a device that ensures we shall be governed no better than we deserve."

Ministries Dispute Delays Formation of Maharashtra Government

Ashish — Tue, 3 Nov 2009 10:05:10 EST

This is almost like scoring a self-goal. So many days after convincingly trouncing the BJP-Shiv Sena combine in the state assembly, the Congress-NCP has not yet been able to come to an agreement on the sharing of ministries. Even though there is no direct threat to their success in the assembly, this bickering over the sharing of ministries looks very unsightly, and is a clear pointer to the money making and influence peddling abilities of the respective ministries.

The two parties are primarily fighting over the ministries that have a lot of money and political strength, basically the ministries of home, finance, public works, power, urban development. These are the ministries from where you control the levers of money; and it is the ability to spend government money that drivers political power. It is also true that controlling each of these ministries enables the parties to do patronage of their own party workers, thus getting them more money and power. The home department means the control of the security apparatus of the state such as the police and intelligence agencies.

The seeds of this dispute are based on the long standing electoral adjustments that the 2 parties had made. Initially, when the NCP and Congress had come together, after the 1999 elections, the NCP had more seats, but the Congress wanted to get the Chief Minister, and had to give away some of the more powerful ministries. Over the years, as the Congress controlled number of seats has gone up, while that of the NCP has reduced, the natural power hungry nature of the Congress apparatus has got more uncomfortable with the fact that they were not able to control these ministries. In addition, over the years, the basis for which the NCP has been a party separate from the Congress has more or less vanished (Sharad Pawar had separated from the Congress over the claim of Sonia Gandhi foreign origins, but that issue vanished when he agreed to a tie-up with the Congress).

Now, NCP is in a bad position. It has less seats than the Congress, and it can see itself declining; further, if it accepts the hard push of the Congress to give away the more important ministries, it can see itself being slowly pushed to the margins. In the next election, one would see an even more determined push for the Congress to go it alone, or to give even lower number of seats to the NCP (link to article):

In an effort to break the logjam over the formation of the government in the state, Maharashtra Governor S.C. Jamir has summoned Chief minister Ashok Chavan and deputy chief minister Chhagan Bhujbal to Raj Bhavan on Tuesday, an official here said. While Chavan will meet Jamir around 11 am, Bhujbal will meet him half an hour later, the official said.
Though there is no fixed agenda for the two meetings, it is expected that the governor may advise them to take steps to form the new government immediately. "However, it's too early to say whether there will be a swearing-in programme today," the official said. It has been 13 days since the results of the October 13 elections were declared but there has been no progress towards the formation of the new government.

Maharashtra Elections: Final Forecast

Chandra — Sat, 10 Oct 2009 01:18:44 EDT

With two more days to go, it is time to forecast the results of the Maharashtra elections. This is the first election after the Lok Sabha election and therefore keenly watched by everybody. At the outset the fact that the election is happening so close to the Lok Sabha means that forecasting these elections will be quite easy. In many ways that is true.

- Maharashtra voters typically tend to vote for the same parties in both the Lok Sabha and assembly elections

- Maharashtra voters are largely loyal to the party they vote

- No significant events have occurred since the Lok Sabha elections to change voter's perception

Having said this, a few things have changed

- The proportion of rebel candidates is quite high compared to the past

- The SS-BJP coalition have been far more aggressive in dealing with the MNS threat than during the Lok Sabha election

- MNS has lost some of its members to the Shiv Sena

The biggest imponderable in this election as in the past is voter turnout. Voter turnout was quite low during the Lok Sabha elections. Any substantial change in that figure will have a huge impact, particularly in swing constituencies. However, it is unlikely that there will be a huge spurt in voters in most constituencies.

In terms of the main opposition, the campaign has been quite lackadaisical Instead of drumming up 1 or 2 messages consistently across the state, the opposition parties have been trying to raise too many issues. A consistent focus on price rice and measures to eliminate the same would have won them atleast some of the fringe loyalists from the Congress-NCP combine as well as independent voters as a whole.

Considering all the above factors and a clear absence of an alternate and more compelling vision from the SS-BJP combine, my forecast for Maharashtra is as follows

Congress - NCP: 133

BJP- SS: 126

MNS: 6

Others: 13

Difficult to predict: 10

Therefore, it looks highly probable that the Congress-NCP regime is likely to return to power again in 2009. Albeit, in alliance with rebels and smaller parties. This is unfortunate considering the quality of governance provided by the current regime. However, voters donot have too many options giving the ruling parties an edge over the main opposition. The MNS figure looks much lower than what many others have forecast for the simple reason that this is the second election and often rebel parties like MNS tend to lose some steam compared to before.

Also, even in the Lo Sabha election, the MNS managed to lead only in 9 assembly constituencies. Actually, it is likely that the 'others' group that includes a myriad of other parties may be a bigger spoilsport for the Congress-NCP combine than the MNS for the SS-BJP combine. It remains to be seen as to how the rebels factor also plays out. In my forecast, that is an imponderable that I have not considered.

BJP At The Crossroads

Gaurav Rathore — Mon, 24 Aug 2009 07:31:53 EDT

The BJP, the party with a difference, is surely a different party these days. It's limping badly. One can draw parallels with Jinnah. The preacher of communal harmony in 1916 became the sole messiah of Muslims in 1946. In the same way, the BJP from the single largest party and the ruling one in 2001 is now, in 2009, an organisation that resembles the Pakistan Cricket Board as far as infighting, bickering and power struggles are concerned. The change is swift and radical. The party which sells itself for its ideology is struggling to define it.

In the last 5 months, the party has spent most of its time in defending venom spewing Varun Gandhi, trying to satisfy the ego of Arun Jaitley and Rajnath Singh (remember Sudhanshu Mittal episode), ignoring the poll debacle, mishandling Vasundhra Raje episode and the expulsion of the veteran leader, Jaswant Singh. Yesterday, Sudheendra Kulkarni dissociated himself from BJP because of ideological differences. All these are clear signs of breakdown. The latest being the critique of the BJP president Rajnath Singh as "Humpty Dumpty" and the BJP itself as a "kati patang" & "Alice in Blunderland" by Mr. Arun Shourie.

With A B Vajpayee out of active politics, at 81, Advani cannot be seen as the future of the party. In fact, many say that the decision to expel Jaswant Singh was taken to douse the chants (RSS chief among them) of instating younger leaders at the helm. With no clear succession plan in place, this ego tussle between the individuals is bound to grow exponentially and there is no dearth of second string leaders in BJP. For every Rajnath Singh, there is Murali Manohar Joshi, for every Sushma Swaraj, there is Vankaya Naidu and for every Yashwant Sinha, there is Arun Jaitley. Not to forget the state stalwarts like Narendra Modi, Sushil Modi, Shivraj Singh Chauhan, Kalraj Mishra, Ravi Shankar Prasad etc and then there is the RSS burden to tackle.

The BJP catapulted to the national scene with the emotive Hindutva issue and managed to encash it for few years. But, to be honest, the issue practically died down with the demolition of the Babri masjid. Now there is a makeshift temple at the disputed site and everyone in the BJP knows in their hearts that the talks of proposed temple at Ayodhaya are mere fiction. They briefly tried to reignite the same agenda on the name of Kashi and Mathura but realised that people don't buy stale food. They then tried to tread the aggressive tone with the nuclear tests in Pokhran, Kargil and then Operation Parakram. Then there was the aggressive economic agenda which they tried to sell through much maligned 'India Shining' campaign and failed miserably. Since then, Congress has patented the idea of economic progress of India.

The BJP now stands at the crossroads, unable to decide what's its core ideology and what agenda to pursue. With only a handful of states in its bag and the ever diminishing seats in parliament, BJP now plays the role of opposition which can be passed as laughable at best. And with a herd of leaders with fat egos sitting at various influential positions within the party, their future looks bleak, at least for the time being.