Desicritics Category: Politics: China

China - Censored Growth

sufferingsocrates — Thu, 21 Jan 2010 09:20:46 EST

I am extremely proud and happy to be in India. India could have multiple issues, both regional and religious. But that speaks volumes about the strong emotional bonding that India has enjoyed all through the 62 years of Independence. Notwithstanding hostile neighborhoods, India has continued to be peace loving, and sometimes even too docile for its own good. There is honestly no comparison of India with either Pakistan or China. While Pakistan has been the rogue nation, owing to a politically mismanaged nation and a nation with radicals lurking in every corner, China has been the nation trying to bully around, not only its own citizens, but other Asian nations as well.

Thomas Friedman noted in an article that China is at cross roads of whether to adopt a new age China, or get subdued under the Communist rule. He goes onto mention how China is grappling to come to terms with an increasing knowledge consuming world, which would force the nation to embrace and gain knowledge through multiple channels for its own development. What this would do is inhibit the stringent measures of the Chinese rule, because the exchange of knowledge information needs vast amount of transnational interactions. Human rights violation has been a long discussed issue in China, with executions for crimes being very common, and no freedom for citizens.

Not surprisingly, this is the very reason the Chinese officials are wary of the Web 2.0 revolution and want to monitor human rights activists' actions. One wonders what insecurities should the Chinese have, when it is in the cusp of becoming the second largest economy in the world. The Chinese government is increasingly insecure of uprisings which could arise out of their strict policies. Why else would it raise a cyber army just to track down, hack computers across the world and steal vital information ? Google is threatening to pull the plug from China for this very issue of China hacking into accounts of human rights activists. What China is not realising is, more the restrictions, more are the chances of uprisings and revolts.

In another very disturbing move, China is going to scan text messages to filter out unhealthy or ill-content in mobile phones. What this means is, a Chinese citizen, who may share some passionate messages with his/her spouse over mobile phone could well be jailed and may even be executed ! It is truly unfortunate that China is imposing restrictions in citizens' private lives as well. Already, the rule of a single child in China is coming back to haunt the Chinese. It is resulting in a rapidly aging population in several important cities in China, forcing Chinese to rethink the single child rule. If the single child policy wasn't interference enough in private lives of citizens, scanning text messages is outright intrusive.

For precisely such restrictions and rules that the Chinese employ, it is hard to understand if there will be any emotion or sentiment left in a Chinese citizen. Being patriotic is great, but who would want to be patriotic for a nation which does not allow freedom, even in personal lives ? Who would want to be patriotic to a nation which is always monitoring every single step of any and every citizen ? Which citizen would like to continue in a country, where they live more in fear than for the love of the land ? Consequently, it is not difficult to understand why, any Chinese trained individual would be more robotic than human. Devoid of any emotion or sentiments, be it sportsmen or the army, would automatically tend to be more machine like. Without true love for the nation.

Now think of India. A nation highlighted as being poor, winning Oscars for its slum dwellers. But what India has is, freedom of speech and expression. Sometimes, a little too much of it one would say. But India has stayed on for 62 years with an incredibly diverse populace, and also embracing liberalization along the way. Corruption maybe rampant in India. But pray, where is corruption not seen ? The Indian growth story has been quite remarkable, and more and more honchos in businesses are from India. The world has confidence in an increasingly globalised India, in spite of its infrastructure woes and red tapism. The simple reason is the freedom and the confidence that businesses can flourish in, and that India has the brain power as well as the manpower.

Unlike a Pakistan, India has continued to vote democratically. Though there have been fragile governments, no Indian citizen can complain about the freedom (s)he enjoys.Pakistan is struggling against foes they themselves fostered over the years. India has been the victim of terrorism from Pakistan, and is increasingly under threat from an insecure China. China's insecurity is understandable, with India's increased presence both economically and diplomatically. China is certainly miles ahead economically and militarily, but India and Indians have their hearts in place.

The World Awakens to China

jay — Mon, 18 Jan 2010 08:26:45 EST

As China's economic engine continues to hum and scale newer and newer heights, it is interesting to see a number of commentators especially in the western world begin to get worried. Worried they are, as China overtakes them in metric after economic metric. China is now the biggest market for passenger cars in the world surpassing the US. It is the largest exporter in the world surpassing Germany. Of course, it is also the holder of more than $2 trillion dollars of American debt. With a billion-plus population China is only just beginning. Clarion calls have been sounded around the world in the past few weeks, some merely cautioning to some advising economic sanctions and tariffs. While much of this may be simply nervousness in having to share the bed with an upstart, the fire behind all that smoke is quite revealing.

The fact of the matter is that in 2009 China has realized that it is the foremost economic engine in the world. This acknowledgment by the world has given the Chinese the confidence to junk Deng Xiaoping's advice to "Keep a cool head and maintain a low profile". It now thinks that it has achieved the aim of proving to the world what China can do. It appears to have decided that it is no longer necessary to keep its ambitions and aims close to its chest but to further it as openly as necessary. This appears to be a strategic change to the direction in which the country had been going so far. Several recent events give credence to this fact.

1. China continues to peg its yuan to the dollar at devalued rates to further its exports to the rest of the world defiantly telling the world that it will adjust the rate only when it thinks fit. In another era of lopsided power equations, perhaps China could not have been so belligerent.
2. China has kept the border issue with India on the front burner in recent months while professing Asian unity just to keep India second-guessing and to remind her of who is more powerful if there was a need for a backyard brawl.
3. China's relentless pursuit of natural resources including oil, minerals, farm produce etc especially in African countries often by arming and supporting tin-pot dictators has been brazenly upheld despite international criticism. It has decided that it will seek what it needs, international obligations be damned. A lot of people in African countries who signed up for such largess are beginning to realize the negative effects but can't do a thing about it.
4. China has openly indicated that it does not need a Google to operate within its borders, if it does not comply with its draconian rules about dissent and openness. In an earlier era, China may have compromised (it may still reach a negotiated settlement with concessions from both sides) but the new resurgent country wants things done on its own terms.
5. There are several indications on the ground too where some have reported how business proposals have been shot down or supported according to the new rules even though none exist on the statute.
6. The Copenhagen summit was deftly steered into a do-nothing conclave at China's behest because it was not ready to commit to any numbers on paper.

These seem to point to a new belligerent attitude of the Chinese who are ready to flex their muscles to indicate that they have arrived on the global stage, and will run their business the way they like it. At this stage it does appear that it is going to descend into a fight between a wounded Bald Eagle and a "fresh-from-slumber" Dragon. China is well aware that the Americans have studied their Great Depression books well and understand that tariffs and sanctions are what did them in during the 1930s. The Americans are dead against protectionism for now and so China will play the brinkmanship game for some time to come.

It is instructive to remember the words of the late French hero Napolean who once said "Let China sleep, for when she wakes, she will shake the world". If his words turn out to be prophetic, the shake is not going to be very comforting. Definitely not for India who may have a lot more to lose than just parts of its territory.

China - No More Gimmicks

itonion — Sun, 17 Jan 2010 04:39:05 EST

When a Company grows very rapidly outpacing its competitors and produces a balance sheet which is less transparent, an obvious suspicion will revolve around the company. The doubt arises as there is very less data to support the growth of such company and all that you can see is glowing number in the quarterly/Annual reports. This was the exact case of Enron, the biggest bankruptcy in the history of US. Now, replicate the same analogy for a country in the current economic scenario, which grows very rapidly at a time when other countries even hesitate to say that they are out of recession. This is China for you!

In recent days, a lot of voices are being heard warning about the Chinese Bubble. This started with the Hedge fund Investor James S. Chanos who predicts that China is headed for a crash, contrary to the popular belief that the country is growing at a faster pace. He is the person who predicted the fall of Enron and similar other Bankruptcies. So, nobody is daring to ignore him. After all, that is his job and he has an impressive track record for years. Chanos, a hedge fund Investor simply bets against a Company/Country, as he believes that it will go down in few months. If his prediction is right, it results in an insane amount of money. (Especially, when they bet against the popular opinion). Classic example is George Soros, whose betting against 'Bank of England' earned him $1b in a single night. This was in 1992.

Coming back to China, Chanos suspects that "Beijing is cooking its books, faking, among other things, its eye-popping growth rates of more than 8 percent". He is planning to give a detailed speech about this at the Oxford University by end of Jan'10.

Here are a few factors which raise questions about China:

The Chinese economy is largely based on Exports to US and European countries, which means the Chinese currency 'Yuan' has to appreciate less against the dollar or Euros to continue the impressive GDP growth. China being a growing economy leads to appreciation of their currency, but the Chinese central bank has prevented the appreciation and has kept the exchange rate between dollar and Yuan almost the same for past few years. This largely helped them to maintain low prices for their goods in the foreign market and thus accumulating billions of foreign reserves. Now, you may think that it's plays to the advantage of Chinese economy. But, the economy at such a mass scale doesn't work this way.

When a country has huge amount of money among its people (in a manipulated market, the Chinese central bank prints loads of Yuans equivalent to the dollars), the value of the currency itself decreases. This triggers an increase in inflation, as the price of the domestic goods increases over the period of time. So, to prevent inflation the Chinese government should at least stop the surplous flow of Yuan. This can be broadly achieved by two ways:

1. Increasing the interest of the money that is been lent by the Chinese Central bank
2. Preventing the Consumer banks from lending out more money. This can be achieved by instructing the banks to increase the limit of cash reserves.

However, during the time of recession, the Chinese government infused a stimulus package of around $600 billion dollars into the economy to prevent any huge recession impact. So, this stimulus money along with the existing flows triggered a real estate boom in China, where the prices of lands/home rapidly increased every month and thus creating a 'Real estate Boom'. Now, the government is highly worried by this boom as they have just witnessed on how the US hosing market turned into bubble and got burst.

This is clearly evident from the fact that the government has just announced that they are backing off the stimulus package and have also announced few strict measures to bank on the lending policy.

Now, the Chinese have to control the interest rates, imports and exchange rate similar to adjusting the volume equalizer in a music player. They have keep adjusting the numbers as and when the other value changes.Since the market is in a bubble stage, a small miscalculation can result in disaster.

Moreover, there is more pressure on China from world countries to stop manipulating the Yuan against foreign currencies. Recently, when China surpassed Germany as the world's second largest exporter, Germany had put lot of political pressure against China to stop the currency manipulation. Apart from Germany, other countries are applying similar pressure, as the cheaper Chinese goods are flooding their markets which eventually slows down the growth of in-house industrial houses. Also, there are also threats from other countries that they will stop buying Chinese goods.

All one can conclude is, China will not grow at the same rate as earlier. If it continues to do so, it will not last long for even a few months before which the real-estate boom market will turn into a bubble. For sure, China can expect heavy backlashes from world countries for its continued currency manipulation.

Travel: Hike on Eastern Simatai, Great Wall of China

Sumanth — Mon, 11 Jan 2010 08:28:46 EST

The Great Wall of China has many sections located in the mountains north of Beijing.

The most popular sections are the ones at Jongyuquan near Badaling Pass, where most foreign tourists and even local Chinese head to. One can reach this section of the wall by taking the Badaling Express way exactly in the north of Beijing. One can find a huge colourful crowd almost every day in tourist season and the Great Wall is so much renovated here, that you will find feel as it it was built only 10 years back. Badaling Pass was a strategic pass in history because, conquering this mountain pass is a must, if one wishes to capture Beijing while attacking from North.

In April 09, I and my friend Doc headed to Beijing on a tourist trip and we wanted skip Badaling section of Wall initially and were enthusiastic to go to less crowed Jinshanling-Simatai section, located at about 80 miles north east of Beijing towards Changde City. This section of Great Wall is not at all renovated and scenery is much more beautiful than the section at Badaling.

We booked a 280 Yuan tour at a Travel Agency near Qian Men Hutong area. The hike of 11km of Jinshanling section starts at Gubeikou mountain pass proceeding east and ends at Simatai. Gubeikou mountain pass is a strategic pass and many historic wars were fought at this mountain pass. From research in Internet, I could gather information that this 11km trek will take about 4 to 5 hours and one need to carry enough water as there are no places in the middle where you can get any food or water. There are 32 towers en-route and some sections can get steep and dangerous to climb. The tour operator generally drops the hikers at Gubeikou Pass, climbs down, proceeds east and waits for them at Simatai to pick them up after 4 to 5 hours. The Great Wall at Simatai has western and eastern sections separated by a small lake called "Mandarin Duck Lake" in the middle. Another alternative to this 11km hike is, to hike couple of kilometres of steep Great Wall at eastern section of Simatai.

However, next day morning we were disappointed. The girl in the travel agency told us, “no trip today. I am sorry” and returned the money. We headed to a local tourist office and there was not much help there as well. A group of 3 foreign students (two American and one Korean) joined us and they were also looking for a hike on Great Wall. We all decided to drop the plan to hike 11km Jinshanling section and instead decided to just travel to Simatai on our own to hike a couple of kilometers there. We referred maps and found that we have to travel to a small city of Miyun on north eastern side of Beijing. We took Metro (link) to Dongzhimen Bus terminus and took a bus towards Miyun. The buses going towards Chengde city pass through Miyun. The Ticket was 15 yuans. In about an hour’s time, we were at Miyun. Near the Bus stop, the Korean guy, who knew a bit of Chinese negotiated with a Cab driver for a 5 hour trip to Simatai. We got the cab for about 220 yuan for 5 guys and headed to Simatai in the mountains.

It took about an hour to reach to Simatai. The eastern and western section of Simatai mountain is divided by a lake called Mandarin Duck Lake, which gets water from two small rivers.

From the ticket counter, we had to walk about a mile to reach to the entrance of the Great Wall at eastern section. This section of the wall is steepest and the distance between the towers is also shorter (about 250m average) compared to other sections of Great Wall.

The map of a portion of Great Wall at Simatai. One can take a cable car to directly reach at tower 8 or using cable car one can climb down from tower 8.

Slow climb on the hill for about a mile to reach to the entrance in second tower of Great Wall at eastern section of Simatai.

First steps after the entrance (at second tower) and you can see the tower 3.

West Section of Simatai leading to Gubeikou pass in Jinshanling. You can see about 13 towers out of 32 towers of that 12km section.

This picture shows the Simatai west and also the lake in the valley in the middle.

This picture shows second tower in ruins in eastern section of Simatai Great Wall.

This picture is taken from 4th tower. The wall to 5th tower is in complete ruins and one has to climb a scary narrow passage of two feet width with a sharp drop in the hill on the right to the chain (not in this picture).

This is the 5th tower with other towers in the background.

The climb gets steeper. You can see the 6th tower and the 7th tower in the background. We could see couple of children having a lot of fun climbing. You can also see outlines of couple of people standing on 7th tower.

You can see 7th and 8th towers in this pictures. The tourists are standing on 7th tower, the only tower, which one can reach easily though one has to be careful once you are up there. The 8th tower is also known as "White Cloud Tower" and it has a big hole in it, due to Japanese bombing during world war II.

The climb to 9th tower is steep.

This place is at location of 13th tower in ruins out of about 17 towers in total in this section. This is the farthest one can go in eastern section of Simatai.The remaining towers are Fairy Tower and Watching Beijing Tower with the steep passages called Heavenly Ladder and Sky Bridge. These are closed to tourists for safety reasons (<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simatai">link</a>.

There is a warning to tourists not to cross a barrier here and two guards make sure that no one ventures beyond this point. Looks like someone translated it directly from Chinese.

“Stop! Dangerous Ahead. Climbing the front Great Wall is Prohibited. Those who violated will be fined 200 Yuan”

This is a recent video of eastern Simatai Great Wall in snow during winter. One can also directly climb up to eighth tower of this section of wall via a cable car.

A better way to explore the great wall at Simatai is to stay couple of days at the youth hostel near the Mandarin Duck lake in the valley. You can also read this blog, if you wish to hike from Gubeikou(Jinshanling) to Simatai. It also contains some very nice pictures. Also, have a look at this blog, which I referred before deciding about this hike.

BRIC Economics - Peering Into The Future

jay — Sun, 10 Jan 2010 09:37:15 EST

Predictions are powerful because when they are made by influential people they become self-fulfilling prophecies. Witness the result of the BRICs report by Goldman Sachs. That report published in 2001 set in motion a great flight of capital into the emerging markets of China, India and Brazil propelling them into the next stage of economic development. This report and its aftermath turned out to be such a big success that the projections are now being revised even more favorably towards these countries with China projected to overtake the US as the world's largest economy by 2031 several years earlier than the original predictions.

Now, the Carnegie Endowment, a reputed US-based think tank has put out its International Bulletin in November 2009 projecting the growth path of the major nations of the world up to 2050. The chart (G20 in 50: available here) effectively uses Google Motion Chart to tell the story of the rise of China and other developing countries, through the first half of this century.

According to this projection, again China is expected to surpass the United States as the largest economy in the world in 2031 with about $23 trillion in nominal GDP (a compounded average annual growth rate of 9.5%). India's GDP at that time is expected to be about $6.5 trillion - 6.65 times what we are today (a compounded average annual GDP growth rate of 9.3%). At around the same period, India is expected to overtake China as the most poulated nation on earth with about 1.47 billion people within our borders.

The story on the per-capita GDP numbers is quite dismal. The standard of living of the people in both China and India although would be far better than where we are today in 2010, it probably will not be good enough to pull a lot of people out of poverty especially in India. The per capita GDP of China is expected to be about $15,000 (up from $3,000 today) while that of India will be a dismal $4,500 (up from $1,000 today). This would mean that by generally agreed yardsticks, India would still not be a middle income country even by 2031 (A country is generally considered to have broken into the middle income category once it crosses the $5,000 threshold in per capita GDP).

One reason this is so is that China's climb is much steeper than India's when you look at how worker productivity is expected to change over the years. While the worker productivity of most countries - especially the United States and China - seems to climb appreciably through the years, India's still ambles along like the elephant that it is.

Economics 101 teaches us that the three factors that impact the economic growth of a country are capital, labor and productivity. Given that India will not be short of labor and perhaps will have sufficient capital chasing it, it is clear that increasing productivity will be the way to grow faster. In fact this is one area where India has done a really bad job. This has been our bane for decades until now and may continue to be so. Although technology is considered to be the biggest contributor to increasing productivity in developed countries, in India there are many other factors contributing to lower worker productivity. Its dismal infrastructure (power, roads, water, ports etc) is a major contributor to inefficiencies. So is its tardy implementation of any projects that it takes up. If we continue to keep the "chalta hai" attitude that we are famous for, then India will be condemned to remain a low income country for decades to come.

Should China Have Executed A British National?

Arundhati Thapar — Fri, 1 Jan 2010 19:04:14 EST

Its a difficult time for British diplomacy. Despite intervention at the highest levels, the Chinese went ahead and executed Akmal Shaikh, the British citizen convicted of trying to smuggle 4 kgs of heroin into China. Gordon Brown himself made this a high priority case for himself.

It is beside the point that, given everything else the man has on his platter at the moment, including a crumbling economy among the very few still to officially come out of recession, it is surprising that he did. Also, given Gordon's recent luck (he seems to suffer from a case of reverse 'midas touch' syndrome - everything he touches, turns to mud) his last minute decision to butt in may have been ill advised on more than one counts. Certainly the outcome has made him lose face on the International stage and made the British side look decidedly sheepish.

The main crux of the argument from the British side seems to be that Mr Shaikh suffered from Bipolar disorder and hence the Chinese Government should have exercised clemency in dealing with his case.

The question remains whether this was a case of the Chinese committing a heinous crime against humanity by executing a 'mentally sick' man or was it just the British refusing to recover from their sense of pseudo global supremacy. Certainly the Chinese did not take kindly to attempts at external interference in their judicial system.

I am not going to go into the arguments for or against capital punishment but certainly a country has a right to convict a criminal according to the law of the land and no outside Government should be trying to supersede a country's judiciary. So, you do not agree with the way China deals with its criminals. Tough luck. The man, although he was British, committed a crime on Chinese soil knowing fully well that that country has a judicial system entirely different to the British.

I can sympathise with the family of the deceased man and any family would do all in its power to defend their dear one in this situation. But would it not be unfair to Chinese families who have lost family members for similar crimes, to say that this one would be pardoned because he is British?

As to how much weight the argument of 'bipolar disorder' holds in this case is also debatable.

Bipolar disorder is a 'neurosis' as opposed to a 'psychosis'. A neurotic person does not lose 'insight' or 'sense of reality' which is the hallmark of psychosis. So if someone colludes with drug peddlers when suffering from a bout of depression, it neither dilutes the effect of the crime nor makes that person any less culpable in the eyes of the law.

However it looks like the repercussions of this particular act might be more far reaching than just a tussle over which legal system is superior. The Chinese ambassador has been summoned at 10 Downing and given a dose of the bitter pill. The Chinese lost no time in retaliating either. In instant quid pro quo, Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Jiang Yu said: "Nobody has the right to speak ill of China's judicial sovereignty. We express our strong dissatisfaction and resolute opposition over the groundless British accusations. We urge the British side to mend its errors and avoid damaging China-British relations." A firm well planted kick up the British backside.

The issue as far as I can see is related to the very low threshold western leaders have currently for attempting to take the moral high ground and preach values to developing nations. Had this happened in the US, I doubt Britain would have been as eager to interfere.

No Cop-out At Copenhagen

jay — Mon, 21 Dec 2009 06:57:18 EST

The lights have been put out at the Bella Center after two hectic weeks of heated debates in Copenhagen. To most observers, the net result of all that hullabaloo was nothing much to cheer about. After much hype and fanfare leading up to the event, it was somewhat of an anti-climax to see the delegates returning home empty handed. Although on first look it does not seem to augur well for the world that nothing happened at 'Hagen, I think there are a few intangibles that have been achieved that can take the momentum forward to Mexico next year.

For one, the US is now firmly in the ring. This was of course expected with the change in leadership in Washington. After 8 years of being against the green movement politically, the US has now assumed its role as the primary mover in these negotiations. It was evident in the way Mr. Obama and his team wanted to wrest the initiative and come up with something at the end (for him to boast of, back home!) even if it meant some arm-twisting. Whether it was in the right spirit or not, at least it set an agenda for the coming years to work on and puts the US rightly at the center of it.

Another positive is that China has now agreed to be a major player. Mind you, without the US and China leading this effort, there was no way any meaningful mitigation would result out of anything any one else would do. Not only has China agreed to be a major player, it has even agreed to make its effort verifiable. Now, one could say that for a country like China, this is easily done. Given the opaque nature of whatever it does and the thick hide it possesses, it is easy for China to agree to something, cook up the numbers when required or even to renege on commitments with impunity. However, the silver lining is that there are indications that China understands that worsening environment is detrimental to its own citizens more than any one else and has repercussions for the continuation of the Communist party regime in Beijing.

India, South Africa and Brazil got some brownie points to boast of. They were given recognition as emerging powers with a say in world affairs (as the BASIC group) and can at least be privy to what is being decided if not have a vote.

Another positive outcome of the meet has been the pledge by advanced nations to provide $100 billion of annual payouts to developing countries and technology transfers to help them mitigate the effects of climate change while transitioning to newer greener methods of energy production. This is a great achievement for the South as the North was never ready to acknowledge this need so far.

There are those who would declare that this conference has been a washout given that no legally binding requirements were agreed upon. It should be remembered that legally binding or not, if the adoption of green technologies resulted in a country losing out economically, those requirements would be chucked out the window. So, it is critical that every one have a say in the final outcome and that it not be shoved down some people's throats. With 192 members to agree on such a draft is going to take some time. We need to be patient and thank the leading countries for moving the talks in Copenhagen forward rather than backward.

The Chinese Situation

sufferingsocrates — Sun, 29 Nov 2009 02:58:16 EST

The past few months has seen some unusual posturing by India on the international stage, especially against China. There have been a lot of reasons to believe so. India has come out largely unscathed from the economic recession, posting a strong growth of over 6% thus far in the quarters. Issues, which plague India quite often, have not subsided though. Drought due to a delayed monsoon, and then the monsoon itself unleashing its fury, has befuddled farmers and the government alike. Inflation which was in the negative territory after the government stimulus is on the rise and food prices are already shooting through the roof.

Issues, which by design or ignorance have left a blemish in an otherwise healthy growth scenario. Is it this belief and confidence which is helping India in demanding a sharing of emissions burden as referred to by Manmohan Singh a day ago? Well, there have been a sequence of events even before that confirming India's assertion. That the Indian prime minister, is being hosted by Obama for his presidency's first state visit is testament to India's growing stature.

There have been a slew of strong gestures and messsages by India on China. Even at the White House, Manmohan Singh, though unprovoked, minced no words in questioning China's human rights record, while conceding China's far superior growth rate. Earlier, the Indian establishment expressed its displeasure in no uncertain terms, on the Sino US statement of China having a role in South Asian matters. Expressing its strong displeasure, India clearly conveyed that no country needed to play mediator in Indo-Pak disputes. Both China and US issued clarifying statements, allaying Indian concerns of external mediation.

Using its strong growth story, India seems to be asserting more against China's recent posturing at the border areas in Sikkim, Arunachal and Ladakh. Frequent incursion related incidents had raised eyebrows on the Indian government's inaction. India now, through its own diplomatic measures has sent a strong signal back to Beijing. In the past few months, China has been trying to rake up its claims on Arunachal Pradesh repeatedly. By conducting peaceful and suceessful elections with a high voter turnout India sent out the apt signal of what its citizens want. On top of this, India hosted Dalai Lama, in Tawang in November, despite constant protests from China, questioning India's motive in entertaining the Tibetan leader's visit. China has has also been issuing stapled visas for Indians of Jammu and Kashmir and Arunachal Pradesh domicile. India, finally took action and declared any such stapled visas as invalid. Three strong signals in a span of a month, have surely sent a strong signal to China.

The importance of India to be assertive has not been lost on the Indian defense establishment. India has been a soft target, from elements within and its vicinity. India's location is vulnerable, from all its borders, owing to hostile neighbourhoods. Pakistan has always been provocative, and has been responsible for launching terror attacks within India. China on the other hand, has always been surreptitiously supporting Pakistan. Revelations of China helping Pakistan's nuclear programme are certainly worrying with reports of Pakistan possessing more nuclear warheads than India. China is also being seen as having a hand in Maoist violence in India and arming and training miltants in Mizoram.

Bangladesh has not been far behind, being a safe haven for terror elements infiltrating into India's porous borders.Sri Lanka, finally suppressed the LTTE menace and has ended the rebellion. That certainly would be one respite for India. The other worry for India has been the much talked string of pearls strategy by China. China has been working on this for decades now, and India is slowly waking up to the concerns. China's growing influcence, especially economically, has given it the muscle power to woo the South Asian countries, by helping build ports in Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Pakistan. The strategy is multi purpose, starting from enhancing military bases in coutries like Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Myanmar, in the guise of economic development.

India has had the larger influence in the maritime locations in the Indian Ocean, until now. Though China's larger objective of the string of pearls may seem as one to gain easier access to fuel supplies from the Arabian nations, encircling an entire Indian ocean can only spell greater worries for an already encircled India. Realising this, India has sought Maldives' help for setting up a naval base there.

India also opened its airbase in Ladakh, 2.5 km from the LAC a few weeks back. In another display of military might, India recently carried out a military exercise near the Sino Indian border in Sikkim. Though the recent meeting between the Chinese premier and the Indian prime minister played down rising tensions, India cannot afford to trust China blindly. Though India is no match to China's military might, India has grown in significance as a world power, which definitely is harming Chinese interests along the Sino Indian border.

A more assertive and strong India, will be harder to negotiate with on border disputes. The time is ripe and apt for India to be posturing and assertive.The reasons are plenty. A confident Government elected unanimously. A literally unscathed economy, growing at a rapid pace. A far more supportive US government, who will be more than willing to reduce Chinese influence by using India as the balancing weight.

India would definitely have to grow its presence and significance in Afghan development, and better relations with Russia to counter an encirclement plan by China. Times certainly have changed and China would think multiple times over before even thinking of any conflict with India. While China has suppressed human rights, and expanded its infrastructure, India has thrived on its multiple diversity and democracy, encouraging freedom of speech and thought. The difference ? While Chinese military and defence would seem more like mechanical robots at work, Indian military would have the heart in its place and certainly have more brain power to compete effectively against any any Chinese adventures. But India certainly has to be watchful than ever before to counter an increasingly insecure Chinese at its borders.

Will Obama be a One-term President?

jay — Sat, 14 Nov 2009 15:00:46 EST

It has been a year since Mr. Barack Obama was elected president and about 10 months since he assumed office. When he was elected as the first African- American president of the United States, hope swelled among the ordinary people of the country. They anointed him as "The Chosen One" and believed that he was capable of performing miracles. Alas, that very same hyperbole of hope is beginning to break at the seams. And when the mighty fall, they do fall with a thud. Let me explain.

Mr. Obama inherited a presidency with insurmountable problems which probably would take years or decades to clean up. His oratory skills, charm and charisma brought him to the office, but when the time for action came he has fallen short, at least so far. He promised to clean up the politics in Washington. Admittedly, the politics in Washington is so sleazy that no one person can hope to clean it up. But he promised the moon to the voters to clean it all up and to build a bipartisan model of cooperation.

Of course every candidate promises that and no one ever believed them. But Obama was an outsider and believable, so they fell hook, line and sinker for him. However in the past year, the politics in Washington has degenerated to a level of partisanship not seen in many years. Cases in point : heckling of the President by a senator during an address to the Congress; boycott of his speech in August to the school children of the country; a senator openly calling to make his health care agenda his Waterloo; Rush Limbaugh, a partisan Republican big mouth declaring that it is important to have Obama fail even if the country goes down with him, etc.

There are other things as well. The health care debate has got so ugly in the past 6 months that they are way behind the August deadline for passing it through the Congress, despite the majorities enjoyed by the Democrats in the House and the Senate. Even now, the bill that will come out at the end of it all is still a mystery as there are enough factions and interest groups to sway it one way or another.

The climate change bill that was to have passed prior to the Copenhagen summit is still hanging and neither the House nor the Senate even expects to look at it before next year.

And the biggest of all, while the economy is declining and job losses are mounting, the Wall Street fat cats are paying themselves hefty bonuses under the administration's watch. This has rankled the taxpayers and many an Obama supporter is becoming an Obama hater. Although most reasonable thinking people are able to understand the complexities in untangling this mess, the man on the street who has lost his job would justifiably have no time for niceties and explanations. He is willing to desert Obama and the Democrats if only he could find an alternative.

On the International front, he started with a bang by addressing the Muslim population of the world from Cairo. He was quickly seen as the "un-Bush" and America began to be loved by many all over again. However, that love has not lived for long. Israel is bristling with anger at the Americans for turning their backs on the settlements issue. He has plenty of other problems like Afghanistan where the interminable wait for a decision seems to point to the possibility that it is all going to end in a thud. Pakistanis are no longer enamoured of his multi-billion dollar help (although they still love the money!).

India probably got a really bad deal from the White House. It is clear by now that Barack Obama is not a great believer in the India story (the upcoming Manmohan Singh visit is not expected to change anything!). He seems to have discounted the strategic role that India can play in the region and the world stage (unlike Bush and Clinton who both saw great potential for India towards the end of their terms!). He, as the Great Pacifier, has decided that rather than containing and encircling China in a bear hug, it is better to partner with them as an equal. In that goal India needs to be dispensed with. He even went to the extent of declining a meeting with the Dalai Lama to please the Chinese.

India can be an ally and can be useful at times as a faithful friend in the region. But beyond that he does not see much use for the country. This is an unfortunate development which the policy wonks in Delhi understand but can't do anything about.

The recent losses in the elections, the highly rancorous health care debates both in the Congress and on the street (with gun-toting Republications gracing Town Hall meetings), the state of the economy and high unemployment, and the strain of two wars - all are taking a toll on the presidency. There is clear evidence of a crack in Mt. Obama and it appears that he is beginning his downhill climb from the summit. In the past year his approval ratings have fallen considerably while his disapproval ratings have risen appreciably.

Perhaps his charm and goodwill will still see him through as he tackles one problem after the other while convincing his country men of the difficult times ahead. Perhaps the "do-nothing presidency" (from a skit in Saturday Night Live) will turn into a "do-everything" one soon. It was after all the Audacity of Hope that brought him to office.

Change, or the Climate Will Change You!

jay — Fri, 6 Nov 2009 09:44:56 EST

It is going to be hot in Copenhagen this winter. That is because the United Nations Climate Change conference is beginning in that city on December 7. There is a lot at stake for many nations in this conference as time has come to reach a deal on climate change after postponing the problem for several decades. The Kyoto Protocol adopted in 1997 and effective from 2005 has been patchy in its effects. The situation has changed considerably in the past decade and awareness about the problem has risen significantly in the past few years. It is no longer beneficial for any nation to behave like an ostrich with its head in the sand when it comes to climate change.

India is one of the more significant players on the field here. The minister for Environment Mr. Jairam Ramesh has been twisting and turning to find the appropriate stance that is palatable to all. As a rising power it is extremely important for India to be seen as a part of the solution rather than as a part of the problem. To be fair, this is the dilemma that all the major nations face. The level of discussions have reached a point where it is no longer fashionable to engage in shouting matches looking to pin the blame for this problem on developed nations anymore. The need of the hour is concerted action from all corners.

It is a battle between the developing and developed nations with China and India assuming leadership of the former while the US and EU are ranged on the latter's side. In my opinion, India needs to act as a bridge between the two sides to play a constructive role in this bargain. The fact of the matter is, whether you like it or not, China is not a reliable partner in this endeavour. China has many strategic aspects to consider including its enhanced role in the world. They can ditch the coalition to appease the crowd in the opposite camp. This is a major cause of worry for India while coming up with its nuanced position.

What is even more critical in my opinion, whether the climate change negotiations bring about legally binding commitments or not, is to start working on implementing the solutions. On this front, China is a leader both on the ground in implementing and at the negotiation table scoring brownie points.

Consider this:

China passed a renewable energy law in 2005 which mandates feed-in power from renewable resources into the energy grid. The aim is to meet 10% of the power needs of the country through renewable sources by 2020. India does not have a law nor a plan of this nature.

More than 10% of the homes in China have solar water heaters installed. India's number is much less.

On Electric cars, China is well ahead in the game compared to the rest of the world. Several companies like Lishen, Coda, SAIC, BYD, Chery have specific plans to make electric cars with several models already on the street. India only has Reva. Also, China is far ahead even compared to the US when it comes to battery technology for electric cars - the most important piece in the electric car jigsaw puzzle. Combined with its manufacturing prowess, this gives China a tremendous advantage in the coming years.

To its embarrassment, China is a world leader in using carbon generating energy sources like coal (India is third). It is quite clear though that the country has taken a decisive turn to address its problems and to move towards a carbon-mitigating future. And when China makes a decision, it sticks to it. It is up to India to make similar moves as soon as possible to jostle for leadership in this space. Even though we may have several constraints including finding the funds for it, it is quite clear that alternative energy is the future.

India needs to gain the strategic and the moral high ground in this game to be a recognized leader of the world. Can we do it?