Desicritics Section: Politics

The New Jahanpanahs

Shantanu Dutta — Fri, 16 May 2008 12:03:18 EDT

When India got independence from the British in 1947, the hard line communists made a derisive comment yeh azadi jhoothi hai and were derided for it. The communist thought that power had merely changed hands from one set of imperialists to another- that the white rulers had been exchanged for rulers of another color – brown.

Looking at the Supreme Court’s disdainful dismissal of a PIL brought by the Peoples’ Union for Civil Liberties that sought to bring judges of the apex court and high courts under the purview of Right to Information Act, it looks in hind sight that the communists were right after all. The Supreme Court armed to the teeth with the Contempt of Court, at least under the current Chief Justice at least seems to keep a scornful and arrogance distance from commoners as an elite group.

The reluctance of the Chief Justice to subject the court and its justices to scrutiny under the Right to Information Act, especially in the matter of declaration of assets is otherwise beyond comprehension. Even more incomprehensive is the Chief Justice’s smug assertion that Judges declare their assets to him. If that were enough than every departmental head could be authorized to handle their subordinate’s affairs and there would be no need to maintain vigilance departments any where !

The modern Indian judicial system has its origins in the Calcutta High Court.

The High Court at Calcutta, formerly known as the High Court of Judicature at Fort William, was brought into existence by the Letters Patent dated 14th May, 1862, issued under the High Court's Act, 1861, which provided that the jurisdiction and powers of the High Court were to be defined by Letters Patent. The High Court of Judicature at Fort William was formally opened on 1st July, 1862, with Sir Barnes Peacock as its first Chief Justice.Appointed on 2nd February, 1863”

Like most institutions the British left behind , be it the civil service or the military or the judiciary or even the Government of India Act 1935 which to a large extent forms the backbone of the constitution, Jawaharlal Nehru who reportedly once described himself as the last Englishman to rule India; he left them unchanged. And because the changes in these institutions were not intentionally made, they remained frozen in time or actually degenerated into grotesque caricatures like when you see those turbaned and liveried waiters serving in the Rashtrapati Bhavan and Raj Bhavan functions, with the viceroy’s crest replaced by the Ashoka Chakra. To see Brown Sahebs and Babus soaking it all in after being sworn to uphold the Constitution of India which still describes India as a Socialist Republic among other things, positively reeks.

The interesting thing is that in that very fountain had of imperialism, the United Kingdom, things are changing as public pressure builds up. By agreeing to pay income taxes, giving up the royal yacht, changing some royal rules, and limiting the number of royals receiving government money, the Queen has sought to placate growing public criticism of the monarchy. Closer home, in Bhutan voluntarily and in Nepal involuntarily , monarchies and feudal cultures are being dismantled. But in India, “their lordships” that sit in judgment over affairs pertaining to a billion plus people and determine their fate in some small measure at least will bear no scrutiny on their actions and conduct through the common man’s scrutiny conducted through lawful means permitted through the law of the land. They are the new jahanpanahs and will not tolerate any lese majeste!

New Delhi's Bus Rapid Transit System - Democracy Rides a Bus

Shantanu Dutta — Thu, 15 May 2008 09:26:33 EDT

For close to a month now, the newspapers in Delhi have been busy covering the fracas caused by the decision of the government to introduce the Bus Rapid System on a fast track. The intent of the government might have been good; but the experience from the phenomenon proves one thing that of course should have been obvious long ago - that technology is a great too but no panacea. Ultimately technological solutions have to operate in society and society is inhabited by human beings, not robots who will dance to a piper’s tune.

I missing link in the government’s high powered group, the Delhi Integrated Multi-modal Transit System (DIMTS) Delhi Integrated Multi-modal Transit System (DIMTS) has got experience in several fields and has obviously got strong political backing but it does not appear to have thought of including a behavioral psychologist or an anthropologist in its technical team who could have assessed and evaluated the traffic usage pattern in Delhi and offered some recommendations as to whether the BRT would or would not work.

If one looks at the history of the BRT, one finds that it was

“first invented in Curitiba, Brazil in 1974. Other cities that are now using BRT are Bagota Quito, Perreira, Guayaquil, Guatemala City, Los Angeles, Ottawa, Miami, Leeds and Adelaide. Cities like Tokyo, Taipei, Seoul and Lagos have taken up the BRT system now. In India, the system has been partly taken up in Indore, Pune and Ahmedabad, other than Delhi.”

Although the success stories over all seem to be quite a few, and Delhi definitely needs some urgent solution to its traffic woes, simply because a committee containing some scientists of the IIT generate an idea and a group chaired by the Chief Secretary endorses it, it does not mean that it will work. Besides Delhi could have learnt from the experiences of Pune. Pune got the country’s first BRT system, which was implemented one-and-a-half years ago. What was presented as a panacea for Pune’s continuously worsening traffic condition has only worsened the traffic situation there. The much-publicized new traffic mode created major controversy in the first few months of its implementation when the city saw five casualties on the BRT stretch. Lack of awareness about the new system and inadequate traffic sense were the main culprits.

This is not the first time that a traffic project has been handled in such a ham fisted manner. A couple of years ago, the government introduced cycle tracks in many parts of the city, to keep cyclists off the main road. A patch of the road was converted without any fanfare into a cycle track meant exclusively for them. All well except that the cyclists never knew, since no publicity was ever provided. So the cyclists continued cycling where they always had – on the main roads; dodging trucks and buses and cars like always.

After a while, with the tracks remaining unused by the cyclists, as was inevitable, the tracks became the haunt of road side motor mechanics who would park their vehicles in the track as they awaited repair. With heavy vehicles routinely using the tracks, soon the tracks were developing potholes and with in less than a year they were no more recognizable as cycle tracks. The scheme was then given a quiet burial but it is understood that with the Commonwealth Games coming up and the government wanting to spruce up the city as best as it can, the cycle tracks are being introduced again. One has to wait and watch if the planning is any better this time round.

The lesson for us in democracy is that sadly the common man who is the most important stakeholder is seldom consulted or his ideas sought for. A bunch of experts sprout up – and it does not matter who is in power for each regime has its favorites; these experts practically lay claim to messianic wisdom and come up with “solutions” which the Áam Aadmi” is not expected to understand and over night it is implemented at a huge cost to the tax payer. Ultimately the issues like the BRT reveal only one thing – that democracy is for us Indians only one thing- land up elector’s ID in hand once in five years at the polling booth and then go home and get doped. The benign leaders we elect will look down beatifically and take care of us with the wisdom they alone have.

E-Governance and Grassroots Governance

Shantanu Dutta — Wed, 14 May 2008 10:45:49 EDT

When I engaged the services of a smart, suave lawyer to draft the Trust Deed that I had to register, I thought that I was being smart. Getting good legal advice to have the paper work sewn up well seemed to be a good move. Drafting the deed well was the main half of the story; registering the deed itself would be child’s play afterwards; or so I thought. I was wrong.

Whereas the lawyer had drafted any number of Trust Deeds and drafted mine too in a jiffy, registering the deed turned out to be a nightmare. A visit to the sub-registrar’s office to register a document – any document at all is the best possible proof that if any job at can be performed by machines and computers, they should be asked to do so without any further ado and interaction with human beings is best kept at the irreducible minimum.

The first sight to greet you as you approach the sub registrar’s office is a slew of soft drink and bottled water sellers. That sight ought to make any one’s heart quiver; for if such sellers abound like vultures, it only means that there is a market for their wares in the form of indeterminable delays.

Once you alight, you are in the midst of what can best be called a maze with all sorts of people milling around – clients, petty shopkeepers, hangers on and tough looking people in tight T Shirts. Although there are enough signage; the one most prominent is one advising the client to “beware of touts”. And yet with no clear reception counter or window or help desk, and a swarming crowd trying to find its way through the chaos, the only one who knows the drill to get the job done with as little delay as possible is the tout. Getting your job done without a tout’s help in that run down office where the babu sits behind shuttered windows under a fan and the client lines up under the blazing sun without the pretense of even a canopy is like trying to cross the Sahara desert without map or compass.

I remember the times before e-ticketing in the railways became common when the bookings were all manual. Whenever we went on summer breaks, the first job to do was to make a trip to the railway station to book the return ticket. The process took effectively the whole day and was fraught with uncertainty as the bookings were made manually on a giant ledger and with the queue moving at a snail’s pace, there was no assurance that by the time, one reached the head of the queue, the ticket one sought would still be available.

If there is one area where e-governance has made a difference to a whole lot of people, it is in the area of railway bookings. Another may be banking, especially the adoption of core banking by many of the public sector banks. Several embassies have reduced human contact and give online appointments for visa interviews and other related formalities which too are of help. But what is surprising is that despite a few proven successes in improved governance; the government has not demonstrated the political will to extend IT solutions to other government offices that the public have to visit.

The sight of unsightly and ill manned offices with unhelpful clerks in the National Capital and confused clients roaming around under the raging noon day sun surrounded by touts and other unidentifiable characters who seemingly can “fix” any thing is enough to undermine any good that the government might have done in other areas. If e-governance is the panacea of the future, it is much more so at the places where the public congregates to interface with the government and is met with uncouth, sour faced clerks than in the Prime Minister’s office and other such high profile establishments. E-governance needs to expand at the grassroots and do so quickly.

Sisyphus And the Israeli-Palestinian Crisis

Dr Bhaskar Dasgupta — Wed, 14 May 2008 02:26:57 EDT

Personally, I was happy with the Israeli-Palestinian crisis, as it has saved me a few quid. You see, using software developed in Israel for counter terrorist purposes, the local council has saved hundreds of thousands of pounds by implementing a lie detection system over the phone. So when you call up our council to claim benefits, the operator says that you are being evaluated by this lie detection system, you would either not go ahead with the claim or would have the claim rejected because the system thinks you are telling ‘porkies’. The amount of porkies that are told in the aftermath of the Israeli Palestinian Crisis is monumental.

I have a morbid fascination with this crisis. It’s like a horrific car accident. You know you shouldn’t see the accident, but still you slow down as you pass the accident site, crane your neck and peer at the gruesome details. You know it’s a rather uncivilized behaviour and something that your mum would scold you for, but still you cannot avoid it. It’s the same with this crisis. You know that whenever you pick up this topic, you get hammered because you simply cannot be neutral and unemotional at all about it. Even if you are, then for some participant on one side, you will be biased. As simple as that, there is no independent observer on this issue. Ever!

Which is the reason why this book, The Israel – Arab Reader, A Documentary History of the Middle East Conflict, edited by Walter Laqueur and Barry Rubin, should be an indispensable part of your reference library. These two well known authors have done a great job in collecting some vital historical documents, which can be used - at least - to establish some facts on the ground when debating or arguing this issue. The documents are a treasure trove in a very convenient volume broken up into five parts. The first part relates to the time from 1882 to the end of the British Mandate. This part explains the roots of the problem. After this, the remaining parts four are from 1947 – 1973, Camp David to the Madrid Conference, the peace process from 1992 onwards till the intifada started and the peace process dried up.

This book is now in the seventh edition, and once you see it, you can understand why this is so. It contains manifestos, speeches, documents, interviews, memorandums, laws, declarations, reports, statements, parliamentary documents and speeches, United Nations speeches and resolutions, White Papers and the like. The editors have collected documents from Arabs, Israelis, British, United Nations, United States, Germans, Russians, etc. Once I started, I made it a point to read one document or section per day, and I finally managed to complete it. By this time, my hair was hurting so badly, that it had curled up like a Velcro mat. You know why? Because when one reads this, one is torn between two feelings, one – this is a car accident, drive away and two – it’s a car accident, bloody hell, what happened.

This is not the place to review who is right or who is wrong. Who is right or wrong is no longer the argument; it has gone way beyond that. The thousands of millions of words and pages which have been written, the millions of people killed, tortured, wounded, exiled, the decades of anger, hatred and war, the deep religious entwining, the ancient history of this blood drenched land, all those frankly preclude any rational and objective discussion of this issue.

Mind you, there have been thousands of solutions, such as the Two State Solution, Jordanian Solution, the One State Solution, the Ugandan Solution, the Madagascar Solution, and so on and so forth. The current state is a variant of the Two State Solution, which was established in 1948. There would be a Palestinian state and an Israeli state. There is no point in going for what-if’s, we are where we are. The One State solution is now slowly gaining credence. A recent and reasonably well argued book from the Palestinian perspective is written by my colleague, Ghada Karmi, called Married to Another Man, Israel’s Dilemma in Palestine. If you keep these two books in front of you, you will see what I mean by the great difficulty of trying to be independent and unemotional about this issue. The latter book is something that clearly Israel can never live with, as it is very emotive. But then, being the son of a refugee myself, I can empathise with Ghada about her feelings for her homeland which clearly show up in her work. Unfortunately, that emotional approach to this problem means that the book is more of an op-ed than a balanced and reasoned argument for a One State Solution.

The Two State Solution, unfortunately will be the only way forward for the foreseeable future, the only outstanding questions relate to the boundaries, the state of Jerusalem, refugees and security. But then, I definitely have no suggestions as to how this can be resolved, other than the fact that Israel should speak to Hamas and come to some sort of agreement. But I am also doubtful that this solution would be that easy. You see, this conflict has now reached civilisational levels, with the entire Muslim nation officially seeing the Palestinian cause as its own, while the majority of liberal democracies, broadly defined, are lined up with Israel. Conflicts at these levels are breathtakingly huge in concept, think about the crusades, the final solution, the English – Boer War and so on and so forth. The historical record is not good; solutions are generally imposed when one party is utterly exhausted or eradicated. But the core issue does not go away. Hundreds of years after the crusades were over, the issue still flares up in strange and weird places (witness the reaction of the Muslim nation when George Bush said that he was launching a crusade against terrorism.) But if it will be solved, it will be solved by the efforts of people like Laqueur and Rubin, who try to be independent and clearly want to resolve the issue without taking extreme positions such as what Karmi does.

But for what it’s worth, Israel and Palestine have been facing an existential problem for its sixty years and every year, like Sisyphus, they have been trying to resolve it. I can but look upon this train crash of a problem with deep despair and worry but still I think, at least my council tax bill will be reduced by two quid because of this problem. Now that’s not a silver lining on a planetary sized cloud. It is perhaps a silver molecule on a solar system sized typhoon, but hey, straws are straws. In the meantime, happy reading and lets hope Sisyphus keeps on banging away at this task.

All this to be taken with a grain of piquant salt!

Coordinated Bomb Blasts in Jaipur, India

Aaman Lamba — Tue, 13 May 2008 12:12:02 EDT

At least seven bombs went off in close succession in Jaipur, India, the capital of Rajasthan. The blasts occurred in the most crowded areas of the old city, ranging from the Hanuman temple area to markets in the old walled city.

At least 60 people have been reported dead, although the death toll may rise as information emerges. Close to 100 people are reported injured, and phone networks in the region are jammed. The blasts occurred at Tripolia Bazar, Johari Bazar, Manas Chowk, Badi Choupal and Choti Choupal in Jaipur. This would be in a radius of less than a kilometer. The bomb disposal squad has reportedly recovered at least one live bomb, and another may have gone off in a police station. Early indications are that bicycle bombs were used, and were low intensity blasts, but with iron splinters and the extremely congested areas mean the impact would be high.

The Indian Premier League cricket series is underway, and there was a match in Jaipur yesterday. Lalit Modi, the Chairman of the IPL, reiterated that security precautions would be expanded, and the games would go ahead as scheduled. The next match in Jaipur is on Saturday. Bangalore has offered to host the Saturday game, showing that cricket is still a gentleman's game.

The injured are mainly at the Sawai Man Singh Hospital in Jaipur. The Hospital numbers are: 0141-2560291; 0141-2619827 The Police contact numbers for Jaipur are below. (Country Code: 91, STD Code: 0141)

Police Station	Tel No.	Police Station	Tel No.

Ashok Nagar	381540	CID CB	618573
Bagruwalon Ka Rasta	322919	CID (Ramgani)	560978
Bajaj Nagar	510971	Chandpole	312308
Bani Park	202095	Civil Lines (OP)	223097
Bas Badanpura	630752	Control Room (Jaipur City)	565555
Bhana Basti	300875	Crime Police Help Line	1090
Brahmapuri (O P)	671305	Control Room(Traffic)	565630
Brahmapuri	672315	Galta Gate	641067
Ghat Gate (O P)	612589	Gandhi Nagar	515727
Harmada	330744	Malviya Nagar	520642
Jagatpura (O P)	750508	ManakChowk	601366
Jhotwara	341555	SMS Hospital (O P)	563036
Kishanpole (Ajmeri Gate)	318159	Sataner Sadar (Pratap Nagar)	582020
Mahila Thana (Gandhi Nagar)	510232	Shastri Nagar	304135
Mansarovar	392224	Subhash Chowk	635840
Moti Doongari Road	613663	Sindhi Camp	206201
Police Lines (Rural)	671917	Sanganeri Gate (OP)	571275
Ram Ganj	613676	Amer	530295
Sanganer	721677	Adarsh Nagar	615238
Sanjay Circle (CP Gate)	362174	Lal Kothi	615108
Shyam Nagar	393193	Vaishali Nagar	352088
Sodala	213166	Vidyadhar Nagar	336400
VKI Area	330507	Vidhayak Nagar	741844
Vidhayakpuri	369756	Transport Nagar	618574

2s is twittering about the blasts - he happened to be in Jaipur and a blast occurred less than 20 feet from him. He and his family are fine. No trains have been cancelled as yet in Jaipur.

The SAJA Blog collates updates on the Jaipur blasts

Peace With Dignity: Another Gift For Israel

temporal — Mon, 12 May 2008 07:46:14 EDT

Last week, the Western media focused on Israel’s 60 years as a nation. They accentuated the positives - business & technology development, growth rate, wealth, democracy – and either looked the other way or made light of its nuclear weapons of mass destruction, the Apartheid Wall that symbolizes occupation, its contemptuous disregard of UN resolutions and its discriminatory treatment of its Arab citizens and Palestinians under its occupation.

Let me focus on one editorial by the National Post. It ran a week-long series of Israel at 60. It makes no bones to hide it far right orientation and its neoconzix leanings. Since it is competing for survival in Canada’s toughest newspaper market and is behind the leading Toronto Star and the Sun, it tried to play fair and gave op-ed space to Jeet Heer and Benny Morris who tried to portray the other reality of Israel. But at the same time it “blared horns” and beat a loud trumpet to tell itself and its readership that it does not agree with Mr. Heer’s views.

At the culmination of this week, it ran an editorial wondering what would be a “fitting” birthday gift to Israel. It railed against those who oppose Israel branding them neurotic, leftists, Marxists and (invoking Godwin) anti-Semites:

Even in the West, it has become intellectually fashionable in left-wing circles to regard Israel as a mistake…Pundits and politicians…cast the Jewish state as a nation conceived in "original sin," and perpetuated as an "apartheid" society. As George Jonas, David Frum and Michael Coren noted in their contributions to our series, these accusations have no basis. At best, they represent the projected neuroses of self-loathing Western intellectuals who are still guilt-ridden over their own ancestors' colonial sins, and still influenced by Marx's toxic doctrines of class struggle. At worst, they are a politicized expression of crass antisemitism. Excising such intellectual bigotry from our societies would make a fitting (if belated) gift in commemoration of 60 years of Israeli survival.

This is the state that drove 700,000 inhabitants out, obliterating villages and cities (Deir Yassin is no longer on the physical map), refusing reparations or the law of return for those driven out, building the wall, ghettoizing and Bantustising what remains of the West Bank, dividing families and their homes and lands.

Citing Rachel Corrie and Muhammed al Durrah, it glides over by suggesting “the Israeli military makes mistakes during the execution of counter terrorist operations.” And then this classic defense of these cold blooded killings – “But what Western fighting force does not?”

Criticizing Zionism is NOT anti-Semitism. States do not exist without an “official” map. Israel has to exist. Its citizens have a right to live in peace and harmony within its defined borders. They forget that to ensure this its neighbors should also have the same rights.

Israel, Palestinians and other states in their neighborhood should come out of knee-jerkism and refrain from the tiresome blame game and extend guaranteed human rights to every citizen in their states.

Both Israel and Palestinians have to demonstrate more effectively that they want to live in peace and do not want to kill, maim, expel from their land. It is for them to deliberate and decide if this should come under One State of Two State solution.

The world should help them reach this decision but should not refrain to remind Israel that it should curb its policies of occupation, subjugation, ethnic cleansing, and terrorising.

We should encourage initiatives that will let all Israelis and Palestinians to live in peace, with dignity, justice and guaranteed fundamental human rights in secure borders, as enshrined in the various UN resolutions.

To remove misgivings, doubts and suspicions, international bodies including the UN, the European Union, OIC should be enlisted to provide guarantees. Peace in the region is not to be equated with death for the state of Israel.

Eco Friendly Vehicles: A Case of Misplaced Emphasis?

Krips — Sun, 11 May 2008 14:07:45 EDT

In this year's budget, the Government reduced the excise duty on electric cars from 8 per cent to nil. Recently the Government repeated the same with 2 and 3 wheel electric vehicles. (Full article here) Why? Well, if one were to believe the advertisements, this is because the Government wants to promote these "eco friendly", "zero pollution" vehicles. Just open any electric vehicle manufacturer's website and you will see these words laced all over the site.

Well, that might be true if one were to compare electric vehicles with carbon dioxide emitting vehicles. However, I seem to have been bitten by the recent bug of measuring everything by its carbon footprint. Considering that most of the power produced in India is from hydro carbon fuels I fail to see how these vehicles are eco friendly. Just because you choose to be blind to the technology that brings the electricity right to your doorstep it does not cease to exist. Add to that the fact that we are an energy deficient nation, I fail to see the rationale in promoting electric vehicles.

I see a lot of similarities between ethanol blended fuel and these electric vehicles. Ethanol blended fuel was supposed to be environmentally friendly since it used natural component that could be regenerated. However, this has a hand in the spiraling food prices as food crops like corn were diverted to produce ethanol. Similarly agricultural land meant for food crops began to grow crops that were in demand to produce this "bio-fuel".

As and energy deficient nation and one that meets its electricity needs primarily through fossil fuels can we really afford to promote electric vehicles?

Supreme Court Strikes Down AIIMS Amendment Act

DeeptiA — Thu, 8 May 2008 11:54:31 EDT

Although, the real name of the amendment brought in by the Government at the urging of the PMK Health Minister Anbumani Ramadoss was actually the AIIMS Amendment Act; it should have been called the anti-Venugopal Act. The law fixed the upper age of retirement of the AIIMS Director to be 65, based on which the noted heart surgeon had to resign.

However, since Parliament, in a new low for the Government, actually spent time in passing a law that was directed specifically at one person; it was very easily challenged in court as being discriminatory and meant only to retire him. Venugopal challenged the Act, and even during the initial discussions, the SC had some strong words to say to the Government.

The Central Government on Thursday received a major setback with the Supreme Court striking down the law that enabled premature retirement of noted cardiologist P Venugopal as the Director of All India Institute of Medical Sciences (AIIMS) after a raging row with Health Minister Anbumani Ramadoss.

The net effect of the Supreme Court action has been that the health minister has suffered a severe reversal in his battle with the AIIMS Director. Of course, questions must be asked of the Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh, this was after all the Bill of his Government and the Government has suffered the setback.

In other steps, the Health Minister has lead a campaign against drinking and smoking, and he is justified to that extent since these two are a cause of a large number of casualties. However, there are far more severe problems that the Minister and the Government don't seem too enthusiastic to tackle, since they are not glamorous. Take a look at this cover page article of TIME magazine that blows a hole in the quality of India's health services:

It's not hard to find people caught in the gap between India's dreams of greatness and the awful reality of its broken health system. Most of the country lives there. Sixty years after independence, India remains one of the unhealthiest places on earth. Millions of people still suffer from diseases and ailments that simply no longer exist almost anywhere else on the planet. Four out of five children are anemic. Almost one in four women who give birth receives no antenatal care.
The truth behind the glossy advertising is less incredible: India remains the sick man of Asia, malnourished and obese at the same time, beset by epidemics of AIDS and diabetes, and with spending levels on public health that even Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has conceded "are seriously lagging behind other developing countries in Asia." The sorry state of India's medical services might not matter so much if tens of millions of Indians weren't already so sick.

I would advise people to read the whole article, it is is no way complimentary and displays a state of health that a lot of us, who now depend on the private health care system, don't know about and don't care. In the midst of this, we have successive Governments who care about things that make political logic; trying to spend the long time and effort to overhaul a broken health care system does not matter anymore.

Why is Argentina Boosting Air Force Spending?

Dr Bhaskar Dasgupta — Tue, 6 May 2008 00:36:37 EDT

Argentina has been in a spot of economic trouble, well, for many years now. This week's Economist had this to say:

Argentina is worse off on all three counts ... provoked a tax revolt by farmers ... lost its most important new face when Martín Lousteau resigned as economy minister over a policy disagreement. ... The price of Argentina's bonds has plunged as investors show little confidence in the government. ... According to unofficial calculations, inflation has reached 25% (officially, it is 9%). ... But overheating and inflation are already bringing Argentines some of these woes. ... The statistics agency has stopped releasing poverty figures. Using an independent estimate of inflation, the poverty rate has risen from 27% in 2006 to 30%, with 1.3m Argentines descending into poverty last year. ...

Pretty much standard for a Latin American country, and I did not worry about it that much. But this raised serious worries for me when I got to read about the fact that more budget and aircraft were promised for the Argentine Air Force (Hat tip: DefenceTalk).

You know that the United Kingdom is not going to be able to mount another Falklands-style campaign, not with most of our troops tied up in Iraq and Afghanistan, Bosnia and other places. (Graphic). Those 1,300 soldiers in the Falklands will not be able to stop the Argentines if they attack. At the most, they are supposed to provide a speed bump till reinforcements arrive. How will they arrive? Our main heavy-lift aircraft, Hercules, is up on the blocks because it has cracks. Our naval aviator Harrier pilots are no longer fully trained or up to date on carrier landings. Our political system is currently undergoing massive upheaval and the economy is whimpering. If the Argentines wanted to pick a time to attack the Falklands, then they couldn't have picked a better one. Am I crying wolf? I might be biased because my supervising professor is the official historian of the previous campaign and wrote about it in two volumes, here and here. But remember what happened the first time around? They went to war because the country had economic difficulties and the military government tried to divert attention by launching into a war. That nebulous link with neighbours, as mentioned in the Uruguayan newspaper, is worrying. Is that a reference to Venezuela? If not that, why or which other neighbour will have Air Force links with Argentina?

Dont know, but not getting a good feeling about this.

Technorati Tags: Argentina, United Kingdom, War

Interview: Michael Levin - The Next Great Clash

Desh — Mon, 5 May 2008 09:38:50 EDT

I very rarely find a book that I cannot keep down, specially when it comes to politics. The Next Great Clash: China and Russia vs. The United States by Michael Levin is a revelation. Not many analysts really do serious research before writing. Levin is different. He is a serious analyst who has had long stints in Soviet Union/Russia and China and he is currently Executive-in-Residence at the Thunderbird School of Global Management.

The introduction to the book starts in the most thoughtful manner. It is so gripping that you start believing in the power of book introductions once again - an art that had long vanished! He discusses his tough childhood and fight with disease as well as his struggle to learn about Russia and his success after some aimless times.

I love Levin's expression as it is profound, although it talks of some mundane things like global politics. Like he says:

"Reading is the collecting of intellectual income, writing is the spreading of it."

He uses a lot of research and the models of other researchers to test his conclusions that are based on his experience and knowledge.

Overall, a great book to read! Here is my interview with Michael Levin, the author.

1. You have talked of "One Radical Imbalance (American Debt) sustains another (Asian Surplus)". Just as the "rich" in the US are betting, foolishly, on a never ending stream of debt; aren't the Chinese, again foolishly, betting on unending stream of export wealth? And while talking of the aging US (and Western) population, we forget the same trend for China as well. So two questions:

(a) Is this a game of "who blinks first?" between the US and China and - in that sense - a repeat of the Star Wars tactic to destroy Soviet Union under its own weight?
(b) Is the Chinese "surplus" a notional surplus since it's invested in an instrument that it can best see ride down as the clash with the US increases?

LEVIN: Two things to keep in mind: if there is an economic break between the US and China, China has an ace in the hole: it can divert its attention to satisfying the demand of its domestic consumers as a replacement for export-led growth. The US seems to be at a disadvantage - it does not have an ace in the hole.

Second: You are right - both countries face demographic imbalances that will pose challenges in the future. It seems that America's advantage is its ability to absorb immigrants - recent protectionist sentiments aside. China also has some advantages: its social structure dictates that children take care of parents; it is a private, family matter - so the state is not, thus far, burdened with pension plans.

Imagine the additional wealth that China will have at its disposal as it implements pension schemes.

2. For the clash to tangibly occur as a military confrontation, a complete decoupling between China and US economies needs to occur. What will be that mechanism? Is it possible for either to voluntarily decouple from each other?

If there is outright war, the decoupling will be a byproduct. The whole global economy will go haywire.

But China is developing asymmetric capabilities that exploit US weaknesses. If China is able to prevent the US from protecting Taiwan during a military confrontation - it has won.

By the way - I would like to emphasize: I hope I am all wrong about the next great clash. As you see though, the evidence is quite compelling.

3. Like you said very well, Europe learnt to use the "Human Rights Imperialism" with telling effect. It is very true that all the major powers use a Utopian ideal to create surrogates and followers. Again, as you have very rightly said - the US has considerably weakened two major alliances (UN and NATO) in recent years (probably the worst foreign affairs folly of the last 8 years despite Iraq). So, the US has lost that romantic "Moral Imperialistic Ideal" that inspired other people in its "mission". China, on the other hand, has embraced capitalism and has also weakened its position in its strongest "base" - the Communists and Marxists! Predictably, China has also lost its "Moral Imperialistic Ideal". How will these two powers gather vassals and followers?

Not really. The Chinese have demonstrated that they are successful communists - unlike their Soviet brethren. The Beijing consensus of economic development seems to have more adherents than the current Washington consensus. And the Chinese have very skillfully honed their image (although the recent disturbances in Tibet have upset China's "charm offensive") in the Muslim world, in Africa, and in Latin America.

4. India's "fascination" for the USSR and Russia is mainly because of a consistent and uninterrupted arms flow as opposed to wavering US positions. In the last one and a half decades, India has sent more professional immigrants to the US than all the other countries put together (every year, Indians get 40-50% of all H1B visas). That creates an intellectual ripple effect over two generations that moves out to influence minds as opposed to lobbyists. At the same time, with the highest percentage of younger population in the major economies, English education, and an education system that is privately owned so it can adjust to the demand rapidly, India is positioned to become the provider of world's management and executive talent over the next few years. How does that change the dynamics of the world's economies in the coming centuries? (PS: Rajat Gupta, the CEO of McKinsey, for example was instrumental in opening a world class business school in India - ISB - and also has expanded McKinsey's presence in India. Same goes for the PepsiCo CEO Indra Nooyi).

You know way more about India than I ever will.

5. Does India's business elite have a great deal of influence within the corridors of political power, or are they simply one more lobby to contend with? It seems that India's leaders rise through political parties/families - they do not come from business circles. Also, the Indian business community in Russia is highly organized and very wealthy. I would imagine that they are very involved with the Congress party, whereas Indian business elites in the U.S. might identify more with the BJP. What do you think?

Undoubtedly India has a great competitive advantage in its English-language capability - but the Chinese are very determined and hard-working. And they seem to be much better organized politically and so could easily launch a national English-language campaign (Incidentally, there is a fascinating article about this in the most recent New Yorker).

6. Despite its earlier start and higher percentage rise in GDP over last 3 decades, China has less than half the number of billionaires (official wealth counted) than India. Does that tell a tale? Is China's economy a government-sponsored musical chairs of using money where it sees the best returns and forcing its decisions into enterprise-led initiatives? With rising paper surpluses and a challenge from the US and a private-government combine of Indian economy* apart from a slowly awaking Japanese military power, does the Chinese economy appear to you as a "House of Cards"?

(PS: the Kazakhastan deal for oil was greatly influenced by the Lakshmi Mittal - who owns large steel plants in that country and has a JV with ONGC - in India's favor against the Chinese bids.)

China's economy does have many weak points - chief amongst them, its high percentage of non-performing bank loans (which you point out elsewhere). But China also has many strengths that are not captured by statistics and economic data - such as its ability to mobilize the population and a fervent belief that their time has come. The Chinese are also used to deprivation and sacrifice - something that most westerners are not familiar with.

Regarding the number of billionaires - some thoughts: Do these statistics take into account the number of overseas Chinese who are billionaires?

Also, in China, political connections are more important than wealth (although that may start to change). It would seem that the massive levels of corruption also distort the wealth statistics.

In a sense, all of the members of the central committee (approximately 300) are billionaires of power. And they are not wanting for material comforts.

7. In World War II, the US was an Aaly of Western Europe for the most part. It did not START any war until the end, which many believe it ended in an immoral way. Since then, there have been very few, if any, wars which the US has started and won. Does the US have the ability to attract allies that can forge its position? China has created its vassal states like Pakistan and North Korea to fight its wars that it does not want to fight itself. It has chosen to use the poverty of these vassal states while arming them and providing them with a sense of self-esteem in the absence of actual wealth (a policy very fruitfully used by the British with Indian kings during colonial rule) to create a vast strong set of "allies". How do these two strategies (or otherwise) of the US and China in the recent decades affect the future dynamics?

No one likes a bully - all the kids gang up on the bully as soon as he is down. George Bush/the US is perceived as the bully, and China is skillfully exploiting this, but recent events in Tibet are a great threat to China's strategy of seeking a more "multipolar" world.

8. Finally, a rather small detail: You said that you would sell expensive editions of the Koran in Russia - where your contacts were "refuseniks" (Jews refused immigration to Israel) to earn money. Why were these Jews buying the Koran, and not the Torah?

Please note: i did not sell the Korans - i gave them to the refuseniks, who in turn sold them on the black market to muslims. Access to the Torah was not a problem.