Desicritics Author: C N Anand

Questionable Intelligence

C N Anand — Sun, 23 Mar 2008 10:25:20 EDT

Acting on questionable intelligence, the USA dived headfirst into Iraq to search for WMDs. When nothing was found, attention turned to Iran which is far from making a bomb but is accused of having an irresponsible democracy – understandably, democracy should not result in tyranny of the majority. The logic of USA’s domestic policies, “guns don’t kill, it is people who kill” does not apply to WMD proliferation. Exceptions: All these years the father of Pakistan’s nuclear bomb was building a retail network for peddling nuclear know-how so that the profits could help Pakistan acquire strategic depth in Afghanistan by providing succour to the Taliban. A country teetering on the edge of economic chaos, obsessed with Kashmir’s freedom but fetters its own judiciary, is bristling with WMDs. Surprisingly, no one is shrilly drawing attention with, “The actionable WMDs are here stupid.”

The 60 year old track record of Pakistan is full of long spells of military dictatorship punctuated by experiments with short-lived democracy. The latest flirt with democracy is warming and the honeymoon is about to begin. The feudalistic Pakistan Peoples Party continues its old ways heeding Benazir Bhtto’s Will. Fearing assassination, she did not want the party to democratically squabble over PPP’s leadership and so willed Zardari to head the party in her absence. Zardari felt abashed saying he is not a blue blooded Bhutto and so branded his son Zardari-Bhutto and lifted him and plonked him on the chair of the chairperson of PPP, and said that till he comes of age and completes his education, Zardari will be the regent to back-seat drive PPP. Bilawal Zardari-Bhutto speaks propah English and needs a translator to communicate to fellow Pakistanis. In his PPP-chairman acceptance speech, he thrilled everyone with a passionate, “Democracy is the best revenge.” He took time off from studies in Oxford to pop in at Islamabad and declare and anoint Pakistan’s Prime Minister. It will be interesting to hear the Prime Minister’s first address to the nation. Will he stir Pakistan with, “This is our finest hour…”? Meanwhile, Nawaz Sharrif is waiting in the shadows thirsting for his bit of sweet revenge, which is ensuring Musharraf’s exit.

As yet, no party has articulated an economic policy. The problems are many where industry is suffering because of power outages, leading to massive job shedding. The two major reservoirs have touched dead levels and water shortage portends crop failure. Galloping inflation, flour shortage and gas shortage is resulting in despair driving many to suicide. Law and order is breaking down with incidences of highway robberies increasing. Almost every day, one hears of suicide bombers going about their work with deadly efficiency. The army is stretched thin with the defense budget breaking records. The people are desperate for results and will not spare much time for the honeymoon period. Musharraf’s ouster and restoration of the sacked judges is the least of the concerns of the average Pakistani. If democracy does not deliver this time, the Taliban will insist that it is their turn to honeymoon. Will they see reason and exchange the WMDs for economic goodies? Will they cut down the defense budget? Their track record in running Afghanistan before 9/11 should fill the USA with dread.

If presented actionable Intelligence, Obama said he will act against high-value terror targets inside Pakistan. If Intelligence confirms imminent collapse of democracy, is the intelligence actionable enough for Pakistan to be defanged of its WMDs? It will be interesting to see if the situation in Pakistan waits till the November elections in the USA, where the intelligence of the contenders is not being questioned.

Economic Fallout of Pakistan's Military Rule

C N Anand — Thu, 13 Mar 2008 12:42:08 EDT

Food prices have been going through the roof in Pakistan since November, 2007, with long queues in front of fair price shops being turned away owing to shortage of flour. At a time when the Rabi crop harvesting in Sindh has started, which should bring down prices, procurement prices are skyrocketing instead. There has been a decline in wheat-sown acreage, fertilizer off take has reduced and 22 % water shortage has been reported for the year ending March, 2008. The Tarbela and Mangla reservoirs have already hit dead levels, and the Rabi crop in the Punjab due for final watering before harvesting, will surely suffer water deficiency. There will be no carry over water in the reservoirs for the Kharif crop starting in April, 2008. Pakistan will have to import wheat and internationally prices have spiked. Adding to the woes, crude oil prices are touching a new high.

During winter months when power consumption is the least, for the first time Pakistan has suffered 10-hour Power outages. 60 % of Pakistan's export earnings are met by textile exports and this sector has been badly hit. 30 % of power generation is met through Hydel power generation and with its major reservoirs hitting dead levels, we can expect a drastic change for the worse in the next few days. With summer approaching, fans and air-conditioners will start getting switched on adding to the power demand, which could well be the last straw.

With the army stretched in NWFP and Balochistan and internal security crumbling with suicide bombings almost everyday, what will be the tone of the first address of the PM to the nation? Will he dare to say that he has nothing to offer but blood, sweat and tears in clearing the mess created by Army rule? Will he say, "let us smoke the peace pipe with India and forget about Kashmir and enjoy a peace dividend." Will he bell the cat by saying that the defence budget is getting unbearable? Going by Zardari's latest statement that the army will continue to play a major role, it looks as though the Army will continue to do back seat driving, where foreign policy will be dictated by them. Not one of the politicians dares to question the role played by the Pakistani Army in propping up Musharraf. The core constituency of Musharraf is the army. Disgruntlement can quickly set in when the core constituency's share of roti(bread), kapada(clothing) and makaan(shelter) gets threatened.

According to Peter Drucker, the business of business is to stay in business and the Pakistani army is well into business. Its Fauji Foundation rehabilitates ex-servicemen and enjoys monopolistic license-raj style benefits in running cement, fertilizer, gas, oil terminal & distribution, security services, breakfast cereals, LPG marketing, employment services and steel companies. In addition, retired army officers are given sinecures in public sector undertakings like the Railways, PWD, Postal services etc. The Military Industrial Complex in Pakistan is well integrated, inbred and all encompassing and has its fingers embedded in all nooks and corners.

The bulk of the beneficiaries of the Fauji Foundation are officers and not the men. The current snowballing economic crisis does not bode well for the Army's officer cadre. The bulk of the Pakistani soldiers are from the peasant class of rural Punjab. There will be no escaping for the core constituency from the woes that are closing in.

China & India

C N Anand — Tue, 15 Jan 2008 00:38:09 EST

Two of the world's oldest, greatest and neighboring civilizations, India and China, never coveted other's lands. Both were culturally and materially rich and did not have to maraud to acquire wealth. Both exchanged ideas when Hien Tsang visited India in the 6 th century BC. Simple living, eschewing ostentation to live in harmony with nature, were ideas that both shared. While Copernicus and Galileo were reviled and incarcerated for their theories on heliocentricity, Indian and Chinese astronomers mastered it centuries ago.

Both India and China were seized with protecting what they had from the drooling hordes of Central Asia. While India had the Himalayas for protection, China built a wall. But both the obstacles were breached. A few of the hordes carted away riches to carry on with their nomadic and plundering way of life, but most stayed on to be assimilated by the rich cultures.

Before the 17th century, both countries produced steel the Western world could not match in strength and durability. Ideas on Paper currency and printing were brought to the western world by Marco Polo. Use of gunpowder for rockets in warfare was experimented with. There was nothing that Europe produced which was wanted by India and China, but there was plenty that India and China produced that Europe desired.

While the marauding raids from Central Asia had an immediate cathartic effect, it was not corrosive in the long term. It was the rapacious multinationals that came from the sea that poisoned both countries, the effects of which last till today. The most powerful was the British East India Company, armed with powers to wage war, sue for peace, make laws, and mint money in the lands they subjugated. They had nothing to offer China and India in exchange for tea, spices, silk, Indigo and muslin.

They had to show profit and with a sword in one hand and ledger in the other they cleared the decks in China by fight the opium wars. They subjugated Bengal and Bihar of India, the main opium growing states. They secured the sea route between China and India by acquiring Hong Kong and Singapore and dominating the Malacca straits. Free opium was distributed in China for the habit to take root and then opium from India was dumped in China.

The profits enabled the East India Company to take home indigo, tea, spices, silk and muslin. Some of this tea found its way to the Boston tea party. The dawning of industrial revolution led to the death of Indian and Chinese crafts. Chinese and Indian labor was indentured for work in the Americas, Malaya, and Africa. A near collapse of self esteem took root.

Subsequent overthrow of British influence left behind festering wounds. The India- China border was not clearly demarcated by the British. India and China which never coveted each other other's lands bickered over inhospitable land. However, good sense seems to be prevailing when leaders agreed to leave the dispute for later generations to find a solution. In the meantime, there are urgent economic problems to be attended to.

Non-renewable energy sources are depleting while the appetites of China and India are growing. If every Chinese and Indian consumes extra two liters per day of petroleum products to improve their standard of living, USA's daily oil consumption will be surpassed. If literacy rates improve and two extra paper sheets are used by every Chinese and Indian, whole forests will have to be hacked. A small improvement in standards of living will strain the world ecology. The first world will not give up an iota of the luxury they are wallowing in.

Enlightened cooperation between India and China is needed to save the world. Joint R&D efforts in renewable energy, water conservation, oil exploration, nuclear energy and space exploration is the need of the hour. A consortium of countries, many of whom fought each other in WWII, got together and established the Airbus. Why can't India and China jointly land a man on the moon? If China is willing to share its plutonium with India, many fast breeder reactors can be set up to convert thorium to Uranium 233 for satiating the energy needs of both countries. If only they can put aside the border dispute and reduce their defense expenditures…

Musharraf's Core Constituency

C N Anand — Fri, 28 Dec 2007 02:06:22 EST

After subjecting Pakistan to shock therapy, Musharraf announced a lifting of a six-week-old emergency starting December 16, 2007. He addressed the nation saying that he has saved democracy and now wanted the politicking to begin. However, the judges who did not take oath continue to be under house arrest and GEO-TV remains gagged. Benazir Bhutto, Sharif and Imran Khan railed against Musharraf but not against the Army, and admit that the elections can never be entirely fair, but are taking part because it is the least of the evils. Even Imran Khan never dared to take on the Pakistani army.

With Benazir Bhutto assassinated and Sharif announcing a boycott of the polls and doubts over polls taking place, there is no one to question the role played by the Pakistani army in propping up Musharraf. Rumors are rife linking Bhutto’s assassination to a conspiracy involving the Government -- Zardari endorses it. The core constituency of Musharraf is the army. If this core constituency gets disgruntled and turns against Musharraf, an implosion can occur. Disgruntlement can quickly set in when the core constituency's share of roti, kapada and makaan gets threatened.

According to Peter Drucker, the business of business is to stay in business and the Pakistani army is well into business. Its Fauji Foundation rehabilitates ex-servicemen and enjoys monopolistic licence-raj style benefits in running cement, fertilizer, gas, oil terminal & distribution, security services, breakfast cereals, LPG marketing, employment services and steel companies. In addition, retired army officers are given sinecures in public sector undertakings like the Railways, PWD, Postal services etc. The Military Industrial Complex in Pakistan is well integrated, inbred and all encompassing and has its fingers embedded in all nooks and corners. The question that begs is how can this core group which is sitting so pretty ever get disgruntled? Please read on.

The bulk of the beneficiaries of the Fauji Foundation are officers and not the men. The bulk of the Pakistani soldiers are from the peasant class of rural Punjab. Last year, Pakistan faced a 14 % water shortage for irrigation. In The Indian Express issue of December 06, my article Tarbela dam: Pakistan's other crisis cautioned that the Tarbela reservoir might have already silted up and that we should take a peek via satellite imaging. Now Pakistini papers have reported that the water storage in Tarbela and Mangla has come down to less than 2 MAF against 5 MAF this time last year. Load shedding all over Pakistan has already started and unprecedented power shortages in January are being predicted. The available water in the Tarbela and Mangla reservoirs can either be used for power generation or final wetting of the standing Rabi wheat crop. It will be interesting to see which way the Pakistanis sway while walking the tight rope of water allocation. Even if the entire remaining water is used for irrigation, it will not be enough to save a major portion of the standing wheat crop. Sindh will accuse Punjab of usurping its share of water. The Tarbela reservoir depletes to its lowest level in May, where as this year it seems as though it will reach dead level in January. Fortunately, domestic consumption of electricity is least in the winter months. When summer approaches and fans and air-conditioners get switched on, who will Musharraf favour, the industry or the domestic consumer? There is a shortage of flour and sugar and prices are going through the roof. The NWFP has reported shortage of Diesel oil and Pakistan’s petroleum product reserves are at rock bottom. Cotton production was hit by the mealy bug and imports from India are being explored. This time there will be no escaping for the core constituency from the woes that are closing in.

According to online Pakistani newspaper reports, Benazir Bhutto, Sharrif and the rest hit the campaign trail in spite of warnings by the Pakistani Government. Other than promising an honest government and roti, kapda aur makkan there was very little substance in their speeches. There was no mention of hard decisions like finding resources by cutting down on luxuries like F-16s. None of them asked as to what did the Army do during the last nine years. Musharraf is confident that rural Punjab is not bothered about freedom of press and independence of the judiciary. It is the price and availability of cheeni and roti that counts.

With unprecedented economic problems looming and with Bhutto’s assassination leaving no political party to pass the buck to, the Army will soon have to do a lot of explaining. Watch out Musharraf – it is the end of the road.

Pakistan's Economic Monster - The Tarbela Dam

C N Anand — Tue, 27 Nov 2007 00:16:59 EST

Pakistan's cup of political woes is brimming. Lurking behind is a less obvious and closely guarded economic monster threatening to garrote Pakistan -- the rest of the world better watch out for flailing nuclear arms. I am not crying wolf:

If the Grand Coulee dam springs a leak and empties overnight, the USA will be wounded but will not crumble. However, if the world's largest earth and rock fill dam, the Tarbela dam across the Indus, springs a leak and empties, Pakistan will disintegrate -- hopefully without any fireworks. Pakistan has placed a lot of its eggs in one basket. The Tarbela dam provides 60% of the hydel power generation and anchors Pakistan's irrigation system. However, the Indus river is one of the world's largest silt producer and the Tarbela reservoir is choking up with silt. The catastrophe in the making which was thought to be many years away might actually be visiting Pakistan very soon if it is not already almost upon them. The current political woes in Islamabad has either got the Pakistani leadership to stick their heads in the sand, or they do not want the rest of the world and their own people to know the extent of the dire straits they are in.

With Pakistan having acquired nuclear weapons, the rest of the world must know whether the remaining shelf life of Tarbela is only a few months or a few years. How fast is Pakistan becoming a failing state is the answer we all have to know in an objective manner.

The Tarbela dam construction was completed in 1974 and while test filling the site, sink holes in the alluvium bed were noticed. This led to costly remedial measures and delay in filling up by two years. Since then, every year, 200 million tons of silt was being deposited in the reservoir. Predictably a silt delta formed and crept towards the dam. It was envisaged that the silt delta would be 48 Kilometers from the dam by 1983, but it actually loomed to within 19 Kilometers. By 1991 the delta crest was just 14 Kilometers from the dam and creeping towards the dam at the rate of one kilometer a year. In 1997 M/s Tippetts-Abbett-McCarthy-Stretton International Corporation (TAMS) recommended that if remedial measures were not taken for the management of sediments, the delta would cross the danger limit line by as early as 2006.

If the danger limit line is crossed and the delta slumps, there is a very real danger of the turbines getting overwhelmed and being shut down. If the Tarbela dam stops producing electricity, the entire grid of Pakistan will trip. The load shedding that will have to be resorted to will cripple industry, normal daily life and bring about a sudden flight of capital and civilian population. Darkness will engulf the country and Pakistan will implode. This scenario is neither far-fetched nor fanciful.

To reduce the creep rate of the silt delta, the minimum level to which the reservoir was allowed to deplete to was being raised every year. This resulted in the live storage being reduced not only to the extent of silt deposition but also the extra water locked in because of rising of the minimum operating level. Foreigners are not allowed to visit the dam site.

In October 2005 an earthquake resulted in earth loosening up and hill sides sliding down into the valleys. All the valleys of the tributaries of the Jhelum and the Indus got choked with mud slides. Since the earthquake, two monsoons have washed the loosened earth into the reservoirs.

This year the snowmelt and South-West monsoons have been steadily leading to the Tarbela filling to the brim by end of August 2007. Hardly two months have passed and the Tarbela reservoir has been depleted to less than half its capacity. The Pakistani media has been reporting in a guarded manner that Hydel generation is down and eight to ten hour power outages are being predicted. Water shortage for the Rabi crop is feared. Is this article crying wolf? Shouldn't we take peek into Tarbela? A few satellite images should be revealing and this is an activity that India and the US can jointly undertake. Even if Pakistan turns beautifully democratic overnight, is there any light at the end of the tunnel for it? Let us not be taken by surprise.