Where the BRICs Stand Today

In 2001, Goldman Sachs released a report which projected that the four economies of Brazil, Russia, India and China were expected to become the main drivers of economic growth for the world in the coming decades. It was highlighted that these four economies which account for half the world's population would eclipse the current economic leaders in size by 2050. It will be useful to look at where these countries are today 8 years after the publication of that report.

This is not a comparative assessment of the various economic parameters to measure the progress of these countries. Rather this is my subjective opinion of how far each country has moved up the ladder of progress and influence in the world.

China: China is the one country that has moved up the ladder the most among the BRICs and in fact in the entire world. Thanks to its authoritarian regime, it has focussed all its energies to attain its professed goal of being one of the most powerful countries of the world. China understood early on that economic upliftment of as many of its people as possible is the only way to get there. With money comes power, and it has focused on this like a sharpshooter on his target. It was not willing to be distracted by any other irritants like allegations of human rights violations, currency manipulations and massive pollution of the atmosphere. As a result, today China stands tall as the number 2 economy in the world right behind the US eclipsing Japan, Germany and several others.

China Facts:
GDP = $4.3 trillion ($8 trillion PPP)
Per capita income = $3,000 ($6,000 PPP)
Population = 1300 million

Brazil: Brazil, a resource rich country, has been a laggard for most of its existence even after its independence from the Portuguese in the 19th century. It has been behaving erratically for more than a hundred years drifting between strict and loose government controls. As a result, many businesses have been loathe to invest in Brazil and those who did, burned their fingers (Fordlandia in the Amazon is a prime example). However, since 1995 they have got their act together and the country has been showing tremendous progress in the past decade. It has begun vying for high stakes in the world especially under President Lula - the 2016 Olympics being the latest example. It is still precarious to predict how it will fare in the future (because Brazil has promised a lot before, but failed to deliver), but the lamp seems to burn the brightest now more than ever in its history. Brazil has a very consumer oriented economy and is the richest among the BRIC countries in terms of income.

Brazil Facts:
GDP = $1.6 trillion ($2.0 trillion PPP)
Per capita income = $8,300 ($10,000 PPP)
Population = 200 million

India: India's promise has been long heralded but never has it been able to get its act together to benefit from that promise. India's democracy is rather chaotic. All democracies go through arguments but in the end resolve to solve problems one way or another. It appears that Indians culturally cannot come to an agreement on anything and therefore drift along blaming fate for everything that is wrong. This has resulted in India still languishing on various aspects of progress. Although the net result of the past two decades of progress looks reasonably impressive, given the talent and resources available in India it is a pity to realize that much more could have been accomplished. What India lacks is strong leadership with a vision and mission that could guide the country in a specific direction of progress.

India Facts:
GDP = $1.2 trillion ($3.3 trillion PPP)
Per capita income = $1,000 ($3,000 PPP)
Population = 1200 million

Russia: Russia is an enigma in this four nation BRIC cartel. A resource rich country, it is still undecided about breaking away from its past of socialism while trying to get rid of the excesses that accompanied it. Russia's influence today is a far cry from the power wielded by the Soviet Union in the past. The one bane of this country is its over-dependence on oil. It prospered in the earlier part of this decade when the oil prices were quoted in three digits, but has sunk far down the charts since the oil prices tanked. This is an odd ball in this group and may explode or expand spectacularly one day.

Russia Facts:
GDP = $1.6 trillion ($2.2 trillion PPP)
Per capita income = $1,200 ($1,600 PPP)
Population = 140 million

Overall, from a perception perspective, when one looks at the developmental stage of a country, this is where I think each country stands in terms of the quality of life in each country in general.

China = looks more like the USA of the 1980s - they are probably 30 years behind the US - the most advanced country in the world.

India = looks more like the USA of the 1960s - 50 years behind the US and 20 years behind China

Brazil = looks more like the USA of the 1950s - 60 years behind the US, 30 years behind China and perhaps 6-10 years behind India

Russia = unknown

So, BRICs should probably be represented more appropriately as

C-------I--B--R(?)

with China way ahead of the pack, India and Brazil bunched up behind and Russia a question mark.

Many of you may have a different take on this. Your comments are welcome.