Indian Elections 2009: The Final Forecast

whether we like it or not, the writing on the wall is the defeat of NDA.as you predicted the congress may take the support of AIADMK. there is possibility of left giving support to the congress to keep the communal forces out of power.

Good one. But your recommendations for the BJP are coming too late..

If there is one person who single-handedly destroyed the chances of the BJP, it is that idiot Pravin Mahajan.

If the winning party implements all the populist measures that you recommend (a, b, c, e, g) for the BJP, India will go bankrupt. What's the idea - to imitate George W. Bush's economic plan?

Vinod, Chandra didn't use the word "implement", he used the word "promise"..

Vinod,

Chandra is a known admirer of george. said so himself zillions of times right here on DC. so, no surprises there..

Good analysis. But with the analysis-predictions from pre-poll surveys swaying like politicians' soiled linens, add to that missing homogenity in sampling and a small sampling size(50K?), we are at best, guess-timating...

http://churumuri.wordpress.com/2009/04/14/the-poll-of-polls-swings-wildly-like-waqar-younis/

Indian electorate is hard to poll or predict. Indian elections always pull surprises. Only thing that seem certain is that no 'front' will get clear majority. How chips will fall among them is anybody's guess at this point. Now that elections are already at hand, why procrastinate, why not simply wait and let democracy have its say?

You did analysis for NDA and showed why it will not add to the tally of 2004. You did not do similar analysis for Congress and show why it will increase the tally.

How congress will increase tally from 142 in 2004 to 165 in 2009?

How?

Have you considered following:

1) price rise.

2) unhappy people.

3) economic slowdown cascading across businesses.
and resultant unhappiness and helplessness.

4) UPA partners pitting candidates against Congress. Communists going against Congress.

5) Congress rebel candidates.

6) No sweep of 39 seats in Tamil Nadu as it happened in 2004.

7) Grand Alliance, a famous movie star and anti-incumbency in Andhra which has 42 seats.

8) Its weakness in UP and Bihar with Laloo, Paswan, Mulayam and Mayawati eating its vote share.

In which states Congress will get those extra 23 seats and compensate for the ones which it will be losing in Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh ?

One has to ask why Laloo, Mulayam, Paswan, Sharad Pawar and co are sitting on the fence. Because, there is a fundamental shift in political structures of the country and this will not just end with this election. Both UPA and NDA are dead.

If Congress forms Govt with Mayawati's or Communist support, one must watch the fun.

There will be elections in 2011.

Yeah. Congress is the darling of English Media and that can influence the analysis of many bloggers.

So, who is the Congress Leader in Karnataka who can wrest several seats from BJP?

Is BJP Govt in Karnataka worse than the Dharam Singh or Kumaraswamy Govt?

Sumanth

You ask a fair question. My estimate is as follows

a. Congress loses a total of 19 seats in Bihar (-2), UP (-3), TN (-5) and AP (-9(. They gain a total of 35 seats in MP (+5), Orissa (+8), Kerala (+15) and Rajasthan (+8) giving them a net gain of about 10 seats. In sum, the congress will actual see a net gain. Adding up other states like WB and Karnataka this could go up further by another 10. Either way, it is difficult to imagine congress scoring below 142.

I understand all the points you have raised. However, you will have to realise that this forecast does not take into account voter turnout and the impact of delimitation. I am unsure how this will impact vote this year. In the past a lower turnout was good for the ruling party, usually voters of opposition are more excited about the election. This year we are seeing an increase but since we have also had delimitation at the same time, difficult to do an apple to apple comparison.

Yes, elections in 2011 seem to be a big posisbility. Let us watch

"Both UPA and NDA are dead." Both are already cremated.
Now Third, Fourth and nth Front are going Rounds.
Except me everyone else is in the Prime Minister Fray
"elections in 2011 seem to be a big posisbility.""
Why 2011? Why not 2010?
Election possibility in 2010 cannot be ruled out!

Chandra #10 - "In the past a lower turnout was good for the ruling party, usually voters of opposition are more excited about the election. "

That doesn't make sense. If the turnout is lower, that means only those who are excited enough to vote would vote, who according to you, would then favour the opposition over the ruling party.

Chandra, your analysis (re. the likelihood of Congress increasing its current tally) placed too much reliance on its being able to bag 15 seats in Kerala. Could you elaborate on this very unlikely scenario? Though Kerala politics is very predictable (if you are the ruling party today, you WILL be in the opposition tomorrow) the kind of sweep you are talking about usually favors only the leftists...Congress doesn't usually get its benefit. And the rising influence of BJP (not much of an influence actually..their share of the votes in most constituencies were in the single digits last time) usually means votes taken away from Congress. The communist cadres are too...let us say "disciplined" :-) ...to break ranks

Worst prediction ever!

i don't agree with this prediction

ha ha ha,your calculations are totally a mistake. I just point out that on individual basis, congress will not cross 103 any way if take statewise while BJP touches 177. This is the fact. Decision on allies will take place only after the results come. Regarding UPA and NDA, most of alliance are not in the said UPA or NDA hence calculation is not justifiable.

2009 LOK SABHA ELECTION - PARTY POSITION SELF ASSESSMENT BY SKN
STATE TOTAL CON BJP OTHR
ANDHRA 42 16 1 25 19+6
ASSAM 14 3 6 5
BIHAR 37 1 11 25
CHHATISGARH 11 2 9 0
DELHI 7 3 4 0
GUJARAT 26 7 19 0
GOA 2 1 1 0
HARYANA 10 3 3 4
HIMACHAL 4 1 3 0
J & K 6 1 1 4
JHARKHAND 14 3 9 2
KARNATAKA 28 5 21 2
KERALA 20 12 0 8 7+1
RAJASTHAN 25 13 12 0
MADHYAPRADES 29 6 23 0
MAHARASHTRA 48 11 12 25
NORTHEAST 11 4 0 7
ORISSA 21 7 5 9
PUNJAB 13 1 5 7
TAMILNADU 39 3 0 36
UTTARPRADESH 80 7 27 46
UTTARAKHAND 5 2 3 0
UNION TERRITORY 6 3 0 3
W.BENGAL 42 8 0 34

540 123 175 242

My forecast was made before the elections started and largely in line with the exit poll results that have been released during the last two days. Let us see how things work out tom......people interested in discussing the results, please come to this page at 8 AM on saturday....

Exit Polls Summary

NDTV (Dorab and team)

UPA: 250
NDA: 177
3rd Front: 100

IBN (Yogendra and Team)

UPA: 235-260
NDA: 180-195
Others: 95-110

Star News (Partha Rakshit and Team)

UPA: 240
NDA: 198
Others: 96

Chandra (Pre-poll Forecast)

UPA: 255
NDA: 190
Others: 90


Please read my article on why exit polls can go wrong

http://desicritics.org/2007/07/01/061329.php

I think the following states may surprise most exit pollsters

a. UP
b. Tamil nadu
c. Andhra
d. Rajasthan
e. W.B
f. Kerala
g. TN

All sorts of advertisers on news channels today.....today is their day :-)

first numbers in, 8.14 am

upa-
nda-
others-1

first numbers in, 8.14 am

upa-1
nda-
others-1

UPA: 5
NDA:1
Others:4

8.19

8.24

UPA: 9
NDA:4
Others:4

UPA: 13
NDA:6
Others:4

8.30

UPA: 28
NDA:24
Others:11

8.40

UPA-47
NDA - 34
Others - 15

UPA-57
NDA - 40
Others - 24

UPA: 68
NDA:49
Others:32

8.35

UPA: 68
NDA:49
Others:32

UPA: 68
NDA:49
Others:32

UPA-146
NDA: 94
Others: 39

9.20a

UPA-159
NDA: 92
Others: 39

9.20a

It seems UPA has this one handily. Its over for NDA. 3rd front had no chance anyway.

chandra, sincere thanks for these updates of a genuine democracy at work. really, sincerely! really, take what i say at face value.

Hope congress gets enough seats on its own so it does not have to deal with fair weather alliances and India can have steady hand at the wheels.

Congrats to Chandra for estimate and to Congress led UPA to win next five years.

Now I expect Congress to pass all backlogged legislations as there is no impediment of Lalu or Mulayam. the mandate was against hooligans , communalism and for secular and stable government

a) sexual harrassment against fairer sex at workplace
b) 33% reservation for politically weaker sex

Manmohan by winning back to back fullterms is the second PM after Nehru way back in 1957.

That itself is incredible feat which was not matched by Indira Gandhi or Rajiv Gandhi. Hats off! (even though I am not congress supporter)

The credit for victory goes to Sonia and Rahul, and their bold campaign initiatives that were fraught with risks but paid rich dividends. And Of course, the decent and non-controvercial image of MS can only help.

By and large, BJP ran most inept and insipid campaign in modern history since 2004, which should remain a benchmark for how to lose elections. Overall telly for BJP is not that bad, considering its washout in Rajesthan and Delhi and significant reverses in Punjab and MP. But it would not have mattered to overall results for congress even of BJP had not fared that badly in those states. Because significant portion of congress victories came at the expense of its own anti-bjp allies - there is a re-alignment and consolidation of sort among anti-BJP parties in favor of congress. Perhaps they saw writing on the wall that they can't afford to remain a house divided and still be able to stall BJP. This bodes well for emergence of bi-polar polity in India. Except that I am not sure where BJP can go from here. If BJP's best of leadership could not take on even congress-lite at its ideological lowest point facing its worst economic performance, second-rung of BJP will only find it a lot more tougher to take on a more rejuvenated and empowered congress under Rahul. It seems BJP's best days are behind it, not ahead of it, at least, not in near future. History does not give too many chances and turning points, and if political movements fails to grab them, they deserve to be losers, and be consigned to dustbins of history as wannabees. If left plays its cards right, it can reclaim the political space vacated by BJP, and congress can make it happen, least that congress can do for Left that has vacated political space in favor of congress.

BJP is a gerontocracy. There are not many young people in its leadership. Advani's clout may be over. Its now an also ran party.

A lot of foreign terrorists must be celebrating a Congress win. It now open season with a soft state like India. But then BJP screwed up the last time. However, this time they would have upped the ante.

India can kiss the one trillion(or even more) dollars worth of blood money goodbye, which is sitting in Swiss banks.

Congress is dead against extracting this money, the only regime to not pursue the retrieval of ill-gotten wealth(according to Swiss govt).

Don't expect any major infrastructure projects like roads, irrigation etc. Instead there will be Jawahar Rozgar Yognas, Rajiv grameen Yogna, Indira Yjana etc.

The Proceeds of the above schemes will be shifted to Switzerland. This will be accomplished by full convertibility of rupee.

On a positive side,with no left front turds, Naxalites will get it up their ass. Kashmir insurgency may be contained. But illegal immigration and terrorism from Bangladesh could escalate into a bigger problem.

Real Estate will boom as a result of relatively stable govt in center, meaning if either party got comfortable majority, demand would rise along with consumer confidence.

FII's will rape the stock markets.

Hindu ethos will take a back seat. Rabid Islamization of certain section of society however will not be stalled, they wouldn't dare. So pseudo-secularism will fill the gap.

Casteism will continue as usual. Divisive policies will be raised to new level. Expect reservations in private sector.

People may however raise some concerns about electronic ballots. Next time around there may be independent audits by political parties.

All in all expect the same as last five years. Only difference will that now we do not know where Rahul Gandhi's ass ends and liberals lips begin.

If you hear some heavy kissing sounds, just go back to sleep. Its only some urban sophisticate kissing Raul's buttock across the ocean.

A year from now, Manmohan will step down and Rahul G will become the PM.

Congratulations to Congress but I think most countries in South Asia will view the victory with some dismay.

#42.....MBI Munshi

Why?

In Bangladesh at least most people see the Congress as more devious and cunning and subversive to neighbouring countries while the BJP or leftists tend to be more pragmatic and their ideological pretensions are usually just rhetoric. It is easier to deal with the BJP and leftist than the Congress.

Munshi

It is the other way around. It is congress that is pragmatic, not have any deep allegiance to any ideology, principles or scruples, it never means what it says and always speaks in many forked tongues, and is like a slippery snake that is not easy to pin down. So it appears pragmatic, practical, non-ideological, and self-serving, but they are the corner stone of foreign policy of any sovereign nation. Only nation with nefarious aims against another nation should be afraid of such political force.

Left and BJP are just the opposite. They are easy to read, therefore easy to predict and deal with. They do not have pretensions. Rather warding them off remain their major preoccupation and they get spent up in the process, thus rendered ineffective and harmless. They remain mostly embroiled in internal divide that pretensions and pragmatism create within their own ideology and among their ranks and file. They are feared and loathed for their ideology, and painted as monsters in propaganda, even though their ideology remain pie-in-the-sky and improbable to achieve. Their politics may appear incremental and pragmatic, but propaganda of their opponents would not let them be divorced from their ideology.

Kerty #45

I cannot help but feel that there is a tinge of sarcasm in your explanation. Your description of Congress is exactly why we feel apprehensive of the policies of the party because we have no idea what it stands for or what they intend to do. All we know is that they are usually up to no good. Your last sentence of the first paragraph entirely confused me though. We all assume it is Congress with the nefarious agenda so we take defensive measures to protect ourselves. You may try empathy and put yourself in the position of a Bangladeshi, Pakistani, Nepali, Sri Lankan or Bhutanese dealing with a Congress that makes no sense but you see your country falling apart due to external forces probably coming from India but you cannot be sure. The only indication that it is Indian interference is because there is no other country in the region with the same subversive inclinations.

Munshi

"We all assume it is Congress with the nefarious agenda so we take defensive measures to protect ourselves."

Foreign policies of all nations are built on such perceptions and defensive measures. You can not single out congress. Congress has every reason to worry about nefarious agenda of the neighbors, and take defensive measures.

"The only indication that it is Indian interference is because there is no other country in the region with the same subversive inclinations."

Its the other way around. These tiny nation-states had been carved out as separate entities precisely because they hate India, did not want to be part of or co-exist with or within larger Indian mosaic, and their own reason d'etre is predicated on keeping up the separatist hate jehad.

India's neighbours have much more to fear from it than India has to fear from them. It is because all the other countries have tasted Indian interference and subversive tactics that they are apprehensive of New Delhi's intent and especially of the Congress party who is the best practitioner of this nefarious art.

I think the real test is on how many occasions has India had to change its policy to please its neighbours - NEVER. Put the question the other way around and the answer is - NEARLY ALWAYS. If these countries do not follow India's preferred course on an issue then they have to withstand a relentless and damaging tide of propaganda and on a more serious scale assassination and bloodshed. Internally the Indian public is fed the same trash that its neighbors are a mortal threat to its existence but never are they told the truth about how other countries in the region view India as the principal destabilizing factor in the region.