OPINION

Kosovo's Independence - The Emperor is Wearing Albanian Clothes

February 17, 2008
Dr Bhaskar Dasgupta

Kosovo has declared independence on the 3rd Sunday of February, 2008 and the expectation is that it will be recognized by USA, UK and many other countries immediately. As soon as these western powers do recognize Kosovo as an independent country, it will immediately cause a huge dislocation in the fabric of all other separatist terrorist campaigns, their supporters and the states/groups who oppose them. We have examples ranging from the Turkish, Iranian, Syrian or Iranian Kurds, Northern Irish Catholics, Palestine, Malaysian Indians, Kashmiri Muslims, Naga’s etc. in India, Thai Muslims, Sri Lankan Tamils, Darfurians against Arab Sudanese to the Turkish Cypriots. This will make the international political scenario very complicated and the hypocrisy galore of almost all countries will be exposed. How so? Well, let us take a look.

First, a brief look at Kosovo. The country, which can be said to be part of the Bulgarian (Christian) Empire, became part of the Byzantine Empire in 1018 AD. The local Slavs fought against the Byzantines and then finally became independent in 1208 but not for long. Then the Ottomans came in 1389 and the epic battle of Kosovo happened, something that has been seared into people’s minds. This battle is at the same level of the Battle of Hastings for the English, the Battle of Panipat for the Indians, the Battle of Karbala and the Battle of Badr for the Muslims, etc. That battle defined what Serbia is, the leaders of the Serb armies were even canonised as saints!. But to no avail, over the next hundred or so years, the Ottoman’s won and Islamisation happened rapidly till the 1871 when Serbian Nationalism again arose. Wars happened, the Turks ethnically cleansed a very large number of Slavs from Kosovo and it was a big fur ball but by the end of the 19th century, effectively, the land of the Serbs was now the land of the Albanians.  

Then in 1912, the Balkan wars broke out again, and this time, the Serbs won, did a re-colonisation of Kosovo, and the Albanians moved out. Then the World War 1 broke out which ended in a confused mess. In 1929, the kingdom of Yugoslavia was formed lasting till 1941 when the Italians invaded and then again after some confused too’ing and fro’ing, the republic of Yugoslavia was formed. Now the Albanians lived under the atrocious and horrible regime of Hoxha in Albania proper, and for them, Kosovo was a paradise. So all the Serbian re-colonisation and wars were frankly useless as the population of ethnic Albanians in Kosovo rose rapidly to the low 90% by the late 1970’s.

Then the Slobodan Milošević phenomena happened and all hell broke loose. Whether he was personally to blame or whether he was just a conduit for long festering religious/ethnic tensions will be long debated, but Yugoslavia broke apart into civil war, ethnic cleansing and genocide. The Kosovo problem is just one step in the still to be completed Balkan saga. After the Bosnian war, the attention of the Serbs turned to Kosovo and then the Albanians reacted, peacefully first and then violently. Horrible atrocities were carried out by both sides and then the Serbs got pounded by NATO who stepped into the breach on behalf of the Albanians. Hundreds of thousands of Serbs and Albanians were ethnically cleansed, thousands were killed, and it even degenerated to destruction of churches and mosques.

Now, under UN guardianship, the situation is that the Kosovo Albanians are confident enough to declare independence. The rights or wrongs of the actual decision are beyond this essay, but the point is, that this fight for independence is being waged under the guidance and approval of the West. Mainly Europe and America and they will recognize the independence of Kosovo immediately and they are the people who are providing the military, police and economic cover to the Kosovars. While countries like Serbia (naturally!), Russia, Greece, Spain, Cyprus, Slovakia, Bulgaria and Romania are also the doubters and countries who will not recognize an independent Kosovo.

So what does this mean for other insurgencies, terrorist campaigns and separatist movements? Let us take things within Europe first. Well, the Northern Ireland issue is calming down rapidly so I am not very sure how much it will impact them, but if the protestant/Anglican minority in Northern Ireland or in mainland UK do decide to stall the peace process, this is definitely a way out for the Catholic politicians to declare unilateral independence as an interim way to get to full union with Ireland. Will Scotland use the same mechanism? I do not think so. How about Wales? Nope, it will not. But the Basque in Spain will and can definitely claim this precedent to demand their own homeland.

How about the demands of the far right in Northern Italy? No? How about the very dangerous and frankly hypocritical stance in Northern Cyprus? That statelet is recognised by the Turks and only Turks. Why is Europe not recognising Northern Cyprus as an independent country? See? No response and no comment. Hypocrisy galore. No, actually they are liars, for lying to the Turkish Cypriots, but then, hypocritical lies come very easily to certain people. So the much vaulted principled foreign policy, the speeches about democracy and ethical treatment.

So if that is the case of how to deal with separatist cases, how will the EU/USA work with the other members of the Quartet on the Palestinian case? Will they provide another 2000 members of a stabilisation force to help settle and provide security to the Palestinians in Gaza and West Bank? A similar situation will come up when we talk about Kashmiri Muslims, the Sri Lankan Tamils, Darfurians, and so on and so forth. Will the USA agree on the Puerto Rican struggle for independence? Or how about the Hawaiian struggle? For that matter, would the American Civil War have happened? Curious when these kinds of decisions are extrapolated wider and back in time.

Another question that arises is what happens when the minority becomes the majority? What happens to the minorities in the now majority country? The tragic situation is that the new minority always suffers. Look at what has happened to Pakistan and Bangladesh, two countries created for being the homeland of Muslims. This invariably meant that the minorities of Christians and Hindu’s have their numbers rapidly reduced. Similarly, we have seen the situation in Palestine where the Christians have been emigrating or being terrorised to a great extent. We saw this behaviour in Bosnia where the various minorities, which became the majority, in turn oppressed the minorities.

So here’s the other question to NATO. If the ethnic Albanian Kosovars now oppress the ethnic Serbs as it will happen, will NATO bomb the ethnic Albanians? Or will the EU police force be in there for the next 200 years? Or what? It is very clear that it will not do so and more hypocrisy is very clear on part of the Western Powers. This is the reason why all these high sounding principles are frankly distasteful when you hear from these politicians. Not surprising, specially when you remember that these politicians are the inheritors of the same tradition which has managed to carry out two world wars, innumerable genocides and centuries of warfare and colonisation. Fifty years of civilisation and soft EU power is too short a time for the hypocrisy and naked ambition to breed out. Watch out for more hypocritical statements emanating from these politicians, especially for places such as Northern Cyprus. In this case, the Western Emperor is currently wearing Albanian clothes.

All this to be taken with a grain of salt!

Dr. Bhaskar Dasgupta works in the city of London in various capacities in the financial sector. He has worked and travelled widely around the world. The articles in here relate to his current studies and are strictly his opinion and do not reflect the position of his past or current employer(s). If you do want to blame somebody, then blame my sister and editor, she is responsible for everything, the ideas, the writing, the quotes, the drive, the israeli-palestinian crisis, global warming, the ozone layer depletion and the argentinian debt crisis.
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#1
Keith
February 17, 2008
10:16 PM

"Puerto Rican struggle for independence"
The island is divide up between people that want to become a full state of the union and the other half that wants to remain a territory. There is a tiny independence group but they have been unable to persuade anybody. Puerto Rico is allowed to vote for their own government; if they wanted to leave they could.

Hawaiian struggle? What struggle? They almost voted Republican for heaven's sake.

"Or will the EU police force be in there for the next 200 years? Or what? It is very clear that it will not do so and more hypocrisy is very clear on part of the Western Powers."

If the EU police stay for a long time, how is this hypocrisy?

"That statelet is recognised by the Turks and only Turks. Why is Europe not recognising Northern Cyprus as an independent country?"
You answer the question and then ask it. Strange.

Overall, this is very bad writing and not very logical. You should learn more about the examples you use. It sounds like you just don't like Europeans, but your arguments don't back up your animus.

#2
Frank
February 17, 2008
11:15 PM

[EDITED: Personal and racist attack]

#3
Chandra
February 18, 2008
01:38 AM

BD

NATO and their surrogates have developed an expetise in creating nations the size of Connaught Place all over the world. Look at the experiment called East Timor. If that is not a joke what is. And now you have Kosovo :-). These guys have en unemployment rate of 50%.



#4
Sanjay
February 18, 2008
02:20 AM

NATO and the US have certainly adopted a "Might Makes Right" mentality. They invaded Serbia without any UN authorization, basically proceeding as a "Coalition of the Willing". They even violated NATO's own charter, which stipulates that it is to only act in defense of the home territory of its member states. The Clinton Whitehouse was hell-bent on going after Milosevic following the Bosnia War, and they fomented unrest in Kosovo to do this. The price for this was in precipitating the early fall of the Yeltsin govt, so that their drunken flunkie was replaced with the firmer and less capitulationist Putin. Due to the ethnically selective prejudices of NATO and its membership, it's inevitable that they will bring together a Russian-led counter-coalition reciprocally built along ethnic lines. Additionally, NATO expansionism in Europe may further force the Russians into the arms of the Chinese, which may then have fallout consequences for India.

#5
lomi
February 18, 2008
03:44 AM

on one side u butcher muslims. On other side u act as if u are muslim friends. Who needs a psychatrist?

George W Bush or me?

#6
lomi
February 18, 2008
03:52 AM

also u have a christian president (Chavez, venezuela) who doesnt want US association and its okk but if it arab countries (Iraq, Iran) u will nuke them. Ahhhhh gimme break with ur NATO policies.

Queen, u didnt want ur daughter in law sleepin wit muslim?
Whom are u sleepin wit, evil spirits???

Damn with ur freedom of speech and freedom of expressions. U guys are pathetic losers and more appropriately "Pirates of London". U looted my country and are dictatin terms to us. Pity u. Geologists say Londons days are numbered with high chances tat it will be submerged incl buckingham palace in near time.

Save ur gown and ur palace before its history than attackin others.

Damn with ur imperialism and ur cowardice. U are a nation of wat few millions and wit infertile women and u have guts facin us. Well u cudnt even dictate terms to ur bahu, wat can u dictate terms to us? In indian terms u are a FAILURE, "A BIG FAILURE SAAS"

#7
Guido
February 18, 2008
09:06 AM

BD,

I enjoyed reading this and several of your archived articles. You're obviously a smart guy and logical thinker. I think you make some valid points, although your use of examples is somewhat liberal...you have a tendency to paint with a very broad brush.

Despite your intelligence, you seem to have swallowed the "Great Satan" paradigm hook, line, and sinker. Your opinions reflect that bias clearly. And although you attempt to reach logical conclusions with the spattering of over-simplified examples, the fact is, you have already reached a foregone conclusion, prior to typing the first word. Furthermore, you are quick to highlight the problems, point the finger, and scream injustice...but where are your recommendations? What are you're your proposed solutions?

Please try to leave your baggage in the closet before expressing your opinion. Unless of course, your intention is to spread that baggage around. In which case, I have totally misjudged you and the purpose of your blog.

Guido

#8
bd
February 18, 2008
10:29 AM

#1 Keith

the point that I am making is that the principle behind an aggrevied party unilaterally declaring independence is not right, and the western powers coming down on its side in violation of international law that territory separation should only happen when both parties agree is violated. Take Hawaii for example, there is nothing stopping a bunch of chaps going to a small island, claiming majority status, showing history of separate behaviour and then claiming independence. You had a similar situation with the civil war.

Second, the hypocrisy is when you are willing to be there for Kosovo but not for example, Darfur. See what I mean?

Third, no, that wasnt strange, it was a statement and then asking a question to the EU/US powers. SHows that there is no answer. which leads to hypocrisy.

#9
bd
February 18, 2008
10:31 AM

#3 Chandra

well, these are the chickens coming home to roost from actions carried out decades ago. And by this step, chickens will be roosting on the collective european and american heads for a very long time ahead as well. that's my point.

#10
bd
February 18, 2008
10:33 AM

#4, did you also see that China is also expressing grave misgivings about this independence declaration? i didnt even talk about it, because what happens if Taiwan declares independence? or if Kashmir does? What will the EU / US do?

#11
bd
February 18, 2008
10:34 AM

Lomi #5,6, thank you for your comments. I am not sure what you meant but I am sure you meant well.

#12
bd
February 18, 2008
10:46 AM

Guido #7

One thing which I have learnt from my amateurish bumbling around history is that the trajectory of states and nations is very unpredictable indeed but still, you can identify turning points in history when the future literally changes. While many can debate about the turning points, the problem with the anglo saxon legal system (which is slowly getting adopted) is that once precedent is set, then many things follow that precedent.

For example, the trial of Slobodan Milosovic can be directly traced to the fateful decision by Roosevelt that an international trial court will be setup to try the Nazi criminals. Previously, the idea was that a local german court will try them and shoot them in short order. Now, this entire body of international law, the ICC, etc. revolves around that historical point.

This recognition by the western powers is something like this. Yes, I drew a broad brush, Guido, but let me flip this around. If you were in 1945, would you have expected the geopolitical events of 2008? I very much doubt it. So you dont know and nor do I as to where the trajectory of any or all of these insurgency movements will end up.

And I dont have to give a recommendation, my friend, its pretty much obvious. The western powers keep on making the same damn mistake over and over again, they go to war or do political things without good cover, you saw what happened with Iraq. Now you will see what will happen with Kosovo. My recommendation is what everybody has been banging on and on about, its a UNSC matter, not an EU/US matter.

Finally, my baggage and my opinions come as one, I am afraid, the opinons are formed based upon the baggage :(

#13
commonsense
February 18, 2008
01:58 PM

Lomri wrote:

""on one side u butcher muslims. On other side u act as if u are muslim friends. Who needs a psychatrist?

George W Bush or me?""

Lomri Bhai, you do not need a psychiatrist. That would be too strong an option. Some commonsense would help though. These games have little to do with being pro or anti-Muslim, although such chutiapa helps in rallying support of the herds. It has all to do with power politics (aka the "great game") and "tel ka khel"...when in doubt, remember that the first govt. and country to recognize the USA itself was none other than the "Islamic" Morocco...how's that for something new learnt everyday?

#14
Guido
February 18, 2008
07:11 PM

BD,

First and foremost, thank you for taking the time to respond to my comment. I apologize for my overuse of metaphors. It's an inept attempt to compensate for my lacking vocabulary. In this case, I used the word "baggage" as bias or prejudice. I always make too many assumptions, and here I presumed my euphemism would be recognized in the intended context. The point that I so poorly tried to assert, is that conclusions and/or assumptions based in inductive logic and involving complex issues, are better served without the fog of bias. There I go with metaphors again! Suffice to say, it's easier for others to see our prejudices...especially when it's polluting our thought and thus our decisions.

For example, let's assume for a moment that I was raised by a white Anglo-Saxon shotgun toting bible-thumper, in the bowels of Alabama. And moreover, I had been taught from an early age to hate the black man. But through the course of my life... via education, wisdom, experience, and exposure to the secular progressive community, I learn to recognize my own biases, stereotypes, and falsehoods. I begin to understand how these prejudice influence and cloud my judgment. I start to form new opinions and conclusions based on a totally different perspective. I let go of the baggage.

Forgive me for belaboring the point, but I think it is critical to good judgment. The bias (whether religious, racial, ethnic, political, or national) must be recognized for what it is and abandoned, or your conclusions and assumptions, no matter how logically thought out and researched, will be false. Your arguments will hold merit and appeal only to those with like thoughts and prejudices. Your assertions will be based in rationalization and lacking foundation, which will ring hollow to those able to recognize your preconceived ideas.

Now to your excellent points...and I mean that sincerely.

1. "...the trajectory of states and nations is very unpredictable." Concur. No one can predict the future of a country, its people, and government. Although I'm sure you'd agree there are cycles and predictable phases in the life and death of nation states.

2. "You can identify turning points in history when the future literally changes." I agree with the statement, but not necessarily your example. If I'm right, you use FDR's decision to conduct the Nuremberg Trails as one of these historic turning points...and then the direct leap to Milosevic and The Hague...and then a giant jump to your point.

Although the US surely held sway over much of the conduct of WWII and post events such as the trials, in no way do I accept that any US president can, or could in 1945 dictate international policy. Especially involving international tribunal.

First of all, tribunals against war crimes occurred long before FDR was even born. For instance, following his escape from Elba in 1815, the Great Powers of Europe declared Napoleon Bonaparte an outlaw. He was tried by what could be arguably called an international tribunal and banished to the Island of St. Helena. Also, under the Versailles Treaty (1919), the German emperor William II was tried by an international tribunal for a supreme offence against international morality and the sanctity of treaties.

Second, it was the joint decision of the three warring powers via the 1943 tripartite in Tehran; Russia, England, and the US (Roosevelt, Stalin, and Churchill) that determined the fate of the Nazi party and surviving officials. To assume FDR single-handily "created" the trials is to ignore history and the power of other prominent European leaders.

3. "...this entire body of international law, the ICC, etc. revolves around that historical point." The "point" BD, is historical only in the sense that you made and posted it 18 February 2008. The above point is based on the false assumption of a single misperceived action of one US president more than 65 years ago. Enter the broad brush.

4. "This recognition by the western powers is something like this. Yes, I drew a broad brush, Guido, but let me flip this around. If you were in 1945, would you have expected the geopolitical events of 2008? I very much doubt it. So you dont know and nor do I as to where the trajectory of any or all of these insurgency movements will end up." Excellent BD! No argument here...neither of us is a fortune teller.

5. "The western powers keep on making the same damn mistake over and over again, they go to war or do political things without good cover, you saw what happened with Iraq. Now you will see what will happen with Kosovo."

There are currently 31 wars waging as I write this: Wars. Of those 31, the EU and/or US has had unilateral armed intervention in one...Iraq. Furthermore, excluding Iraq, the US and EU have been directly involved in only four. If my math is correct, the "western powers" are involved in 16 percent of the current worldwide conflicts.

Reference your statement, "political things without good cover"...the broad brush again. If you're referring to Iraq, yes...we're all watching that closely. I'll refer to your point in number four above. Time will tell.

And your final recommendation...or should I say non-recommendation; since you seem at odds..."And I dont have to give a recommendation..." and then "My recommendation is what everybody has been banging on and on about, its a UNSC matter, not an EU/US matter."

If your solution is to let the UNSC handle things, as opposed to the west, let me remind you that 3 out of the 5 permanent members are western countries. And unfortunately the UN's track record for resolving conflicts are spotty at best...Sierra Leone, Israel/Palestine, Sudan, and Bosnia come to mind. Or we can just do nothing and let things take their "natural" course. That option would certainly cull the herd and ease global population growth.

On the current topic of Kosovo, I side with the Serbs. Kosovo and the former Yugoslavian states (Slovenia, Croatia, Montenegro, and the FYROM) have little in common. However, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo all share some history with Serbia...a lot of history Without going into the bloody complexities of Balkan past, I will simple suggest that Kosovo Albanians seem to have Albania more in mind than independence from Serbia. I think the solution is the status quo.

Again BD, thank you for the opportunity to blog.

Guido

#15
Sujai
URL
February 18, 2008
10:09 PM

Chandra:

You stump me!

Look at the experiment called East Timor. If that is not a joke what is. And now you have Kosovo :-). These guys have en unemployment rate of 50%.

So, why is East Timor a joke? And is high unemployment a bad reason to create a nation? I wonder what was unemployment rate in India at the time of Independence.

#16
Sujai
URL
February 18, 2008
10:14 PM

#8, BD:

You make some interesting statements:

... that the principle behind an aggrevied party unilaterally declaring independence is not right,

Why is it so?

...and the western powers coming down on its side in violation of international law

Which law? What law was upheld when Bangladesh got separated from Pakistan?

that territory separation should only happen when both parties agree is violated.

Really? So, did Pakistan approve of creation of Bangladesh?

#17
kerty
February 19, 2008
12:49 AM

Guido..

Prejudice is supposed to be irrational, not backed by facts. BD has laid out facts and basis from which he draws his conclusions. When there is factual basis for opinions and conclusions, you can't discredit them as personal bias or prejudices.

I do not think recognizing Kosovo independence is a wise move by USA and EU. It will change nothing in Balkans but breed more future conflicts in that theater. Break up of Yugoslavia was an unwise move that has cost millions of lives since than. Just as removal of secular saddam hussain was an unwise move - now USA is doing the same things in Iraq that Saddam was accused of doing - using heavy-handed militaristic tactics to subdue all dissidents, insurgents and fanatics to maintain semblance of order. West has a pathological addiction of gerrymandering and remaking the world map and than washing its hands off all the bloody consequences. It is sickening.

#18
smallsquirrel
February 19, 2008
01:08 AM

kerty, you said : Prejudice is supposed to be irrational, not backed by facts

actually, that is incorrect. prejudice is usually borne out of something factual that is taken out of context and oversimplified and over-applied to the group. so while the end result is irrational, the person can usually back up their claims by what they feel is factual evidence.

#19
bd
URL
February 19, 2008
01:56 AM

Guido #14

Thank you for your comments. My reason for raising the turning point issue was to show that issues such as recognition of Kosovo will mark a turning point in the annals of international law and possibly politics. For the Yalta meeting, it was Roosevelt who pushed for the war crimes trials, Churchill was not interested and Stalin did not know what trials meant.

So to go back to the original point, the fact that they have recognised Kosovo will mark a turning point and yes, a broad brush is required to recognise it because just like that Nuremberg decision is now seen on a broad brush across the world for example on the ICC, this decision will also cause a broad based impact. Think of a decision tree and by the time 5-10 evolutions take place, you see a fan of impact points.

Do nothing is not an option, you as well as I know that the EU and US were and are definitely out there to tweak the Russian bear's nose. There is always hope, and there were quite a lot of options on the table excluding outright independence and status quo. But none were seriously negotiated, either in Brussels or in NY, I am afraid. Albanians, of the right persuation (even Rugova) agreed that it will be very tightly tied to Serbia economically for a very long time. The reason why Kosovo was better than Albania was Serbian entrepreneurship, industry and the like, so for them to cut off the tit that feeds them was pushing them into a corner and that's what the EU/US did, and they, unfortunately, will have to bear the consequences.

I am not on either side, but I am rather miffed with the inability of the western powers to review and think through the implications of their decisions 

And no need to thank me, my friend, this is healthy debate 


PS: the bias discussion is a difficult one, and perhaps relates to value judgements. I have yet to find a historian who does not do that :)

#20
bd
URL
February 19, 2008
02:07 AM

Sujai #16, no, the issue of Bangladesh does not apply as the relevant UN resolution was not made.

Here's a good overview of what I referred to when I mentioned international law

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7244538.stm

Second, you have the right for self determination, but at the same time, states have the right to territorial integrity. You pick which side you fall. War's, on the other hand, have a tendency to override laws and become facts on the ground. In this particular case, both parties had agreed to diplomatic solutions. You see, given the current scenario, it will be lawful for Serbia to wage war on Kosovo. And for Russia to come to its aid.

Curious, no?

#21
Guido
February 19, 2008
06:27 AM

Kerty # 17

Thank you for your comments.

Please reread my supposition concerning bias and you'll notice that nowhere have I stated or inferred that prejudice is fact-based, as asserted in your opening sentence.

My original comments concerning BD's well written Kosovo article, was to point out that he used historical examples to support (in my opinion) far-reaching conclusions about the west...in particular the EU and US. I further implied that his decisions were perhaps influenced by personal bias. Your second paragraph makes my point. It is a litany of accusations obviously founded on hatred of the west.

If we look at your closing statement, "It is sickening" and read backwards, it provides insight into your decision making process. BD attempts to support his assumptions...even if I think they are slightly prejudicial. But there is no substance to your claims...no facts, data, or examples...only the exposition of a predictable and overused anti-west rant.

Guido

#22
Chandra
February 19, 2008
06:35 AM

Sujai-15

I think you will have to read my comments along with what BD has already written. You cannot compare India with Kosovo because unlike Kosovo India was occupied by another nation. As BD has already highlighted,Kosovo has always been a part of Serbia. It is not that the Serbs had occupied Kosovo.....

East Timor has a population of 8 lakhs and is now in the middle of a civil war........it is surely a massive joke......the only reason it is a nation is because it is christian....

#23
commonsense
February 19, 2008
09:27 AM

Kerty:

""West has a pathological addiction of gerrymandering and remaking the world map and than washing its hands off all the bloody consequences.""

Right you are again! Japan no doubt was a Western power...

#24
commonsense
February 19, 2008
09:30 AM

Kerty:

""West has a pathological addiction of gerrymandering and remaking the world map and than washing its hands off all the bloody consequences.""

Just as some folks get their daily fix by lashing out at "the West". Talk of pathological addictions! Easy, lazy highs!

#25
Guido
February 19, 2008
09:31 AM

BD #19

BD,

I won't quibble the FDR issue...only to admit we slightly disagree, 1) about the level of influence he had in shaping the Nuremburg trials, and 2) the precedence those trials set on the current ICC structure and in-turn Kosovo.

Reference your quote, "...the fact that they have recognised Kosovo will mark a turning point...". It seems that "they" are growing in number. According to the most recent news reports, Bulgaria and Romania have jumped on the EU bandwagon to legitimatize Kosovo independence. Perhaps we won't have to wait too long to observe the impact points you allude to.

As you know BD, tweaking the Bear's nose is an old game the east and west have played for a long time. But I don't think it was a major factor in NATO's decision to use force in Kosovo. Had there been no outside intervention (do nothing) the problems facing Europe today would look quite different than the current issue of Kosovo independence. Eastern and Western Europe would be dealing with the lasting effects of three-quarters of a million very angry Kosovo Albanian refugees...which I might add, no one wanted; including the neighboring countries of Bosnia, Albania, Macedonia, and Montenegro. Where would those refugees be now? Who could afford to absorb them, even if they wanted to? And what insurrections would be festering in god-knows what disease-ridden refugee camps. Does Palestine ring a bell?

Although I don't disclaim that the NATO countries were eager to flex their muscle in the face of growing opposition to NATO's post cold war existence, it does not belie the fact that doing what they did, when they did it, more than likely saved lives and increased the overall stability in Europe during a period of great change in the Balkans. Of course, at the expense of Serbia...and so in there lies another separate but related issue.

I think you're right on the mark with your financial analysis of Kosovo. However, isn't there the chance that the global market will help an independent Kosovo recover from losing the purse strings of mother Serbia? That is of course, unless someone with a big stick (enter the Bear) destabilizes the situation and scares away the investors. Now the US dollar is in decline, the stock market is down, and American troops are tied up on two fronts...perhaps it's the Bears opportunistic turn to do a little tweaking.

Gratzie!

Guido

#26
smallsquirrel
February 19, 2008
10:22 AM

guido... parla italiano?

#27
Sujai
URL
February 19, 2008
11:53 AM

Chandra:

East Timor has a population of 8 lakhs and is now in the middle of a civil war........it is surely a massive joke

Is 8 lakh too low a number to make a nation?
Does having a civil war negate the existence of a nation? [India went into an overdrive to kills its own people - more than half a million in few months, right after our Independence]

...the only reason it is a nation is because it is christian....

So, why is Kosovo being Muslim, is a nation now?

#28
Chandra
February 19, 2008
11:53 AM


I think all these debates are pointless.At the end of the day, NATO decides the contours of the Planet. This was the case 150 years ago and is still the case....I dont know when he will rise and throw these guys out of Asia....the sooner the better.....

#29
Chandra
February 19, 2008
12:04 PM

Sujai

Yes, I think 8 lakhs is too small to create a nation. I dont know if you are following the events in Dilli. These morons now have a civil war within that 8 lakh people (My tribal district of Koraput had a larger population with zero violence, may be we should have a nation too). The west has been prodding these guys since 1975 because the Indonesians got rid of the Portuguese. They managed to split this region from Indonesia because of the 1997 Asian financial crisis. This is another way of teaching the Indons a lesson. Guess who supports these 8 lakh people....Australia!!!


I can understand Kosovo being autonomous under a UN mandate. But declaring itself free and that being accepted is ridiculous. Since when did Govts that form a part of the SC go above the SC in accepting the Independence of a country. None of SC resolutions suggest that Kosovo can declare independence....


* SC -> Security Council

#30
kerty
February 19, 2008
03:29 PM

Guido..

You Said: "If we look at your closing statement, "It is sickening" and read backwards, it provides insight into your decision making process. BD attempts to support his assumptions...even if I think they are slightly prejudicial. But there is no substance to your claims...no facts, data, or examples...only the exposition of a predictable and overused anti-west rant."

In your decision-making process, it appears facts = overeaching, logical conclusions = prejudices, sound reasoning = assumptions. When you read them backward, any obvious conclusion staring in the face can appear anti, hate, bias, prejudice, overreach etc. I think it is vain tactic of building immunity and infallibility from criticism or opposition - and that is very typical of west's approach in dealing with criticism. Every thoughtless deed it does, it builds this wall of infallibility and immunity by discrediting the criticism and opposition. One can't criticize them without being labeled as hatred or bias or anti-west. This reminds me of how right-wingers in America try to discredit criticism of racism - for whom, practicing racism is not racism, but pointing out racism in day to day events is hatred of whites and racism.

Take the case of Iraq war. There was no compelling rationale to launch a gruesome war upon people of Iraq. Neither people of Iraq nor Saddam did any wrong to people of USA. America's geopolitical calculations drove it to launch a brutal war with lies that killed more people in Iraq than Saddam ever did. But nobody could anything about it, not even independent American media or people opposed to war. If one opposed the war at policy level, they were silienced as friends of saddam, associates of Al Queda, appeasers of terrorism, against men and women serving in american army, weak on American national defense. If one sought to cut the funding for immoral war, they were silenced as trying to harm American men fighting a war for freedom of Americans. If one opposed torture and other inhuman tactics used against Iraqis, they were silenced as trying to put American lives at risk by thwarting efforts to uncover and prevent terrorist plots. If one want American troops to pull out from Iraq, they are accused of destablizing Iraq, handing victory to Al Queda, surrendering to terror, inviting terrorist attacks and putting American lives at risk, trivializing and mocking the sacrifices made by dead and wounded American soldiers. With these kind of tactics of silencing the critics, no political voice in America can oppose any US-led war however evil it may be. American war-mongering machine has acquired total immunity from any opposition from within America and since America does not give a hoot to any opposition from outside America, that is absolute and unaccountable war powers - not accountable to Amercian people, not accountable to people outside America, not amenable to any criticism, not subject to any restraints. That is what Iraq has been about - about acquiring such demonic war powers, and not about fighting some phantom demons in Iraq. If someone exposes or opposes this, he or she would be anti-american and anti-west suffering from prejudices and hatred. I hear you.

Look around the world map and all trouble spots around the world if you need data and examples. Like Kosovo, powers that be in the west have left their footprints all over world map, and trail of bloody strife behind those gerrymandering. In previous post, I didn't just jump into my final comment 'it is sickening' which you tried to read backward. I gave couple of examples too why it is so sickening. However, for you, that is just an evidence of anti-west hate, and not any wrong-doing. For me, that is clear case of remorse-less and arrogant infallibility that only power-mad countries would exhibit.

(PS: I do not know why I got banned from this site. I am getting permission denied when I access this site. I hope I have not ruffed too many feathers here. I mean I do have no-hold-barred views which I can not help. I am using different computer now to post here. But if this site does not want me post here, I will gladly go away. Bye and wish you all well)

#31
Guido
February 19, 2008
07:13 PM

Kerty,

Thank you for the well thought out reply. I sincerely appriciate and respect the passion evident in your words. You seem to genuinely care a great deal about whatever it is you're espousing. But I stick by my previous assertion concerning your opinions. You have done exactly the same as your previous post...leveling sweeping accusations against whole groups of people, without any support whatsoever, save for your own beliefs.

Please allow me to clarify my intentions before continuing. I'm not promoting anyone's agenda here. I am not right, left, conservative, or liberal...democrat, republican, or communist. Perhaps a bit independent. I'm trying to be open-minded, yet critical without being rude and cynical...a real challenge in cyberspace. I mention this to assure you that nothing that I post here is personal.

Your quote: "This reminds me of how right-wingers in America try to discredit criticism of racism - for whom, practicing racism is not racism, but pointing out racism in day to day events is hatred of whites and racism."

The word racism is used five times in one sentence and forgive me, but I don't have a clue what you're trying to say. However I do recognize that you've stereotyped the conservative American political base.

Your quote: "Take the case of Iraq war. There was no compelling rationale to launch a gruesome war upon people of Iraq. Neither people of Iraq nor Saddam did any wrong to people of USA."

According to whom? Again, you make profound generalizations without any supporting reference. Here are some reasons for going to war with Iraq. You might not think they're compelling or rational, but 98 percent of the US congress...both sides of the house and senate would have disagreed with you.

1. Iraq's noncompliance with the conditions of the 1991 cease fire, including interference with weapons inspectors.
2. Iraq's alleged weapons of mass destruction, and programs to develop such weapons, posed a "threat to the national security of the United States and international peace and security in the Persian Gulf region.
3. Iraq's "brutal repression of its civilian population."
4. Iraq's "capability and willingness to use weapons of mass destruction against other nations and its own people".
5. Iraq's hostility towards the United States as demonstrated by the alleged 1993 assassination attempt of former President George H. W. Bush, and firing on coalition aircraft enforcing the no-fly zones following the 1991 Gulf War.
6. Members of al-Qaeda were "known to be in Iraq."
7. Iraq's "continuing to aid and harbor other international terrorist organizations," including anti-United States terrorist organizations.
8. The efforts by the Congress and the President to fight terrorists, including the September 11th, 2001 terrorists and those who aided or harbored them.
9. The authorization by the Constitution and the Congress for the President to fight anti-United States terrorism.
10. Citing the Iraq Liberation Act of 1998, the resolution reiterated that it should be the policy of the United States to remove the Saddam Hussein regime and promote a democratic replacement.
11. The resolution "supported" and "encouraged" diplomatic efforts by President Bush to "strictly enforce through the U.N. Security Council all relevant Security Council resolutions regarding Iraq" and "obtain prompt and decisive action by the Security Council to ensure that Iraq abandons its strategy of delay, evasion, and noncompliance and promptly and strictly complies with all relevant Security Council resolutions regarding Iraq."
12. The resolution authorized President Bush to use the Armed Forces of the United States "as he determines to be necessary and appropriate" in order to "defend the national security of the United States against the continuing threat posed by Iraq; and enforce all relevant United Nations Security Council Resolutions regarding Iraq."

Some have used the argument that President Bush lied about the WMD. But those same people don't want to hear about the intelligence failure on a global scale...a fact accepted by the CIA, FBI, and British Intelligence. And by the way, all wars are gruesome.

Your quote: "America's geopolitical calculations drove it to launch a brutal war with lies that killed more people in Iraq than Saddam ever did."

What are America's "geopolitical calculations"? I thought the coalition went to war because Bush lied about WMD.

A September 14, 2007 estimate by Opinion Research Business, an independent British polling agency, suggests that the total Iraqi violent death toll due to the Iraq War since the US-led invasion is in excess of 1.2 million. That's a very liberal assessment and many dispute it. Nonetheless, sources in wikipedia.org estimate the Iran/Iraq war total death numbers at 1.75 million. I might add, Saddam's war is noted for being very similar to World War I...tactics used included trench warfare, manned machine-gun posts, bayonet charges, use of barbed wire, human wave attacks and Iraq's extensive use of chemical weapons (such as mustard gas) against Iranian troops and civilians as well as Iraqi Kurds. The body count from his death squads is still being tallied as more mass graves are found even now. But the numbers aside, don't you think there's something fundamentally wrong with comparing the deaths of a foreign invasion with that of a dictator's own atrocities. There's another leader with the distinction of killing more of his own people than the invading force...Stalin. And by the way, all wars are brutal.

The rest of your article seems to be about how the evil forces on the right silence the righteous the left. I'm trying not to be cynical or patronizing, but it's hard. In your words, "If one opposed the war at policy level, they were silienced as friends of saddam, associates of Al Queda, appeasers of terrorism, against men and women serving in american army, weak on American national defense." Whom Kerty? Who is the one? You refer to this enigmatic "one" six different times:

1. One can't criticize them without being labeled as hatred or bias or anti-west.
2. If one opposed the war at policy level, they were silienced as friends of saddam...
3. If someone exposes or opposes this, he or she would be anti-american and anti-west suffering from prejudices and hatred.
4. If one want American troops to pull out from Iraq, they are accused of destablizing Iraq...
5. If one opposed torture and other inhuman tactics used against Iraqis, they were silenced...
6. If one sought to cut the funding for immoral war, they were silenced a...

Please give me a name, an example...a reference...anything to corroborate your assertions.

I'm sorry Kerty, but I have read and reread your post and come to the same conclusion every time. Your hypotheses (I use the term generously) are unsupported and void of any attempt to legitimize them. You use stereotypes and make broad accusation. i.e. "America does not give a hoot to any opposition from outside America". I assume that includes all Americans and that you speak for them.

Any reasonable person will read your post and make the same assumptions I have. The author despises the west and especially America. And nothing anyone can say...no clear evidence to the contrary is going to change your view.

I sincerely enjoyed the discussion Kerty and I hope to see more posts. You certainly haven't ruffed my feathers...well maybe a little. But I have a thick skin. However, I think we both need to get back to BD's subject at hand...Kosovo. Which by the way seems to be exploding at the moment.

Grazie,

Guido

#32
Guido
February 19, 2008
07:26 PM

Smallsquirrel #26

Io parla Italiano un po e mi piace Italia molto! I speak a little, but I have enough trouble just trying to be understood in English. I'll stay in the English speaking mode at this blog.

Ciao, Guido

#33
kerty
February 19, 2008
09:25 PM

I don't know what was the glitch that denied me access to this site, but whatever it was seems to be gone in few hours and I am able to access this site again. Thanks.

#34
Aaman
URL
February 19, 2008
10:40 PM

there was some server issue - all fine now:)

#35
kerty
February 19, 2008
11:06 PM

Newsweek fears a birth of another failed state.
Here is Newsweek link

http://www.newsweek.com/id/112945

Why Kosovo independence is illegal and UN may not be able recognize it.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/europe/article3385104.ece



#36
kerty
February 19, 2008
11:06 PM

Arman

Thanks.

#37
bd
February 20, 2008
02:58 AM

And so it begins

RAMALLAH, West Bank (Reuters) - A top aide to Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas said on Wednesday the Palestinians should consider declaring an independent state unilaterally if peace talks with Israel continue to falter.

Yasser Abed Rabbo, a member of the Palestinian negotiating team with the Israelis, told Reuters that if they could not reach a deal with the Jewish state, the Palestinians could consider declaring independence like Kosovo did on Sunday.

"If things are not going in the direction of actually halting settlement activities, if things are not going in the direction of continuous and serious negotiations, then we should take the step and announce our independence unilaterally," he said.

(Reporting by Mohammed Assadi, Writing by Ari Rabinovitch; Editing by Michael Winfrey)

http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSL2022795620080220?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews

Will NATO be sending troops in, bombing Israel and EU sending its policemen and bureacrats in? :)

Or recognising the new state?

#38
bd
February 20, 2008
04:01 AM

And more hypocrisy and inconsistencies bubbling up now.

http://dailysalty.blogspot.com/2008/02/can-north-kosovo-declare-independence.html

What a tragic set of decisions these stupid gits have taken?

#39
bd
February 20, 2008
05:29 AM

Somebody asked about the legal arguments.

http://dailysalty.blogspot.com/2008/02/legal-arguments-foragainst-kosovo.html

#40
Guido
February 20, 2008
11:01 AM

"What happens to a tiny enclave of Serbs numbering only about 70,000 in northern Kosovo is just the start. If these Serbs succeed in de facto seceding from Kosovo, then the Serbs of Bosnia -- who number about 2 million -- will similarly seek to throw off NATO control and merge with Serbia as well. NATO and the EU probably will accept the first, even if not officially, but the second has the makings of a shooting war.

For Russia, which has opposed Kosovo's independence from day one, this is a bit of sweet revenge. While the Russians may have no tools for directly influencing events, the events well unfold precisely along the lines that a vengeful Kremlin would have scripted." STRATFOR - 19 Feb 2008.

#41
Guido
February 20, 2008
02:09 PM

Just for the record. For those who like to point the preverbal accusing finger...and who doesn't like to do that. Make sure your pointing at all KFOR contributors:

In addition to NATO members, nineteen non-NATO countries are participating in KFOR operations, namely: Argentina, Austria, Azerbaijan, Bulgaria, Estonia, Finland, Georgia, Ireland, Latvia, Lithuania, Morocco, Romania, Russia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Sweden, Switzerland, United Arab Emirates and Ukraine. Source: NATO Handbook, Chapter 5: The Alliance's Operational Role in Peacekeeping, 2003 publication.

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