OPINION

Pakistan After Benazir

December 30, 2007
temporal

The Chairperson for Life of the Pakistan Peoples Party is not the Chairperson today. Life cut off its tenuous relationship with her. Some reports indicate it was shrapnel wound, others say shots fired at her killed her. Brigadier Cheema, a spokesperson for the government said she hit the back of her head hard on a lever on the sun roof of the Landrover in the shock wave of the suicide blast and that caused her death. The Xray of the skull he released clearly shows a hole. Either he is incredibly naive or thinks others are.

With the Iowa primary next week, her death has also surfaced in the US local politics. CNN is playing sound bites from Presidential hopefuls against each other. Hilary Clinton in an exclusive with Wolf Blitzer has declared her lack of faith in Musharraf Administration and has asked for an International Commission to probe her death. 

Her Roll of Dice

Benazir Bhutto took a gamble when she ended her exile to return to Pakistan. Today she lies buried in Garhi Khuda Baksh next to her father Zulfikar and brothers Murteza and Shahnawaz.

She was admired and despised in equal measure. Admired by the common Pakistanis as the gritty daughter of Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, a symbol of hope and defiance against former President Zina ul Haq, a young, educated, articulate person from a wealthy family of Sind. She was voted into power twice. She was admired by the West for her ostensible portrayal of liberal and secular values.

She was dismissed twice as Prime Minister on charges of corruption, nepotism and ethnic cleansing. She was also despised for her lack of tolerance within her party, for her autocratic ways when in power, for her arrogance and insensitivity to those in her service. She tolerated no dissent and developed no hierarchy in the party.

Elections

The Musharraf Administration is in a quandary. Pressure is on from the West to go ahead with the January 8 elections.  With her successor yet to settle and consolidate (more on this shortly,) and Nawaz Sharif calling for a boycott, the elections obviously cannot go on schedule.

There are whispers from Benazir’s PPP to go ahead and participate in the elections and cash in on the wave of sympathy for the assassinated leader. Should that happen, Nawaz Sharif may yet again change his mind and agree to participate. [He is another thali ka baigan - a ditherer and procrastinator with short memory span, who is as autocratic and intolerant as Benazir was in her party.]Preliminary Assessment

Winners: Baitullah Mahsud, Pakistan Talibans/Alqaeda, Jamaat e Islami and other right wing parties and orthodox Wifaq ul Madaris members.

Losers: Liberals, democrats, activists, citizens.

Baitullah Mahsud, the Pakistan Taliban leader on the run is a very strong suspect for the Pindi blast. He is also a prime suspect in carrying out the Karachi blast on October 18 on Benazir Bhutto that resulted in upwards of 180 deaths. In a statement released through an aide, Mahsud has denied involvement in her assassination.

It could have been avoided but for her fatalism and rolling of the dice. Benazir was still in Dubai, when Musharraf sent emissaries to apprise her of the suicide bombing threat to her. In fact, one of her last publicly acknowledged meeting with a Musharraf functionary was with Gen. Kiani the present army chief, then ISI chief, who apprised her of ground realities in Pakistan and warned her of the consequences. She brushed all those warnings aside and took a gamble in returning to Pakistan.

His options are dwindling by the day. He cannot impose yet another Emergency if things continue to get out of hand. Having relinquished Army Command, imposing Martial Law would be risky for him.  It also augurs bad for politicians hoping to usher in some form of democracy in Pakistan.

Succession: Amin Fahim, Aitezaz Ahsan and Asif Zardari

Benazir, like most autocrats at heart, did not develop a hierarchy within her party. She wrestled the chairmanship from her mother and awarded herself the coveted title for life.

There are unconfirmed reports that in her will she has mentioned that the leadership of the party should remain within the Bhutto family. If true, the two leading candidates would be her apolitical sister Sanam and Benazir’s son Bilawal who is 19 years old.

Other candidates who can lay a claim would be Makhdoom Amin Fahim, a Sindhi, who looked after the party affairs in Pakistan while she was in exile. Asif Zardari, the Mr. 10 % is also in the running.

The PPP member who garners most respect nationwide is Aitezah Ahsan - a long time PPP member and very much in the fore front since March 09,2007 leading the case for former chief justice Iftikhar Chaudhry. Because of his immense popularity and respect within Pakistan and abroad Benazir and her minions have been cold shouldering Aitezaz Ahsan.

The other dark horse is the shadowy Rehman Malik, former head of FIA. Pakistan TV showed Asif Zardari and Rehman Malik prominently as they lowered Benazir’s body in the grave. If the two link up with other shadowy operatives and manage too wrestle the leadership away from long time party supporter and leaders, then the outcome will be hard to guess.

Nuclear Control

The US has two over riding objectives and concerns.

First is the control of what some say the breeding grounds for Al Qaeda terrorists.  – control of  Al Qaeda and their proxy, the Pakistani Talibans. The Talibans are mainly Pushtoons and live in the North West straddling both Pakistan and Afghanistan.

They were the abandoned orphans of the Afghan War – the US used them and discarded them when their objective was realized.

The second US concern is the control of Pakistan’s Nuclear weapons. President Musharraf has gathered that control under himself with tacit US approval.

In parachuting Benazir they had hoped for a political solution for their first objective. They had hoped that Benazir could come to a political understanding with the Taliban and the Pushtoons.

Simultaneously, the Bush Administration needs President Musharraf and the Army to be in firm control of the Nuclear weapons.

Outcome

The elections, if and when they are held, will have a predictable outcome. The results are fomented in GHQ and are known to the insiders days before they are held. This is the sad reality of an army occupied Pakistan.

Before here death, I had heard this: the elections would be a play on around 230 seats in the NA. A good bet would be 70-8- seats each for PPP, PML(N) and PML(Q). The elections would happen when the GHQ/ISI feel confident they can deliver pre-determined 'results.'

Anticipating this Benazir had taken to saying this in her interviews and rallies that if PPP does not win a majority she would no accept the ‘rigged’ elections.

Washington is caught without fig leaves. The dichotomy of their foreign policy is exposed and well known. In their doublespeak, they talk of democracy and human rights but show a propensity for dealing with puppets and autocrats – Zina ul Haq, Anwar Sadat, Hosni Mubarak King Hussain, the Saudi-Americans – the list is endless. They wanted to parachute Benazir while propping the occupying army.

This reluctant marriage was accepted by Musharraf and Benazir, who had no love lost for each other. Now with her assassination, the US is back to square one. Is there a plan B?

Who can replace Benazir and deliver? Should they explore General Kayani?  How will the lawyers and activists, in the fore front of the restoration of democracy movement take another Army foray into politics? Can Imran Khan be persuaded to fill the political void?

The only thing that can be said with certainty is the coming months will be full of uncertainty. And the forces of dark glow with glee at it.

love people who are in awe of words. words are the sole arbiter and the final survivor. desicritic editor, slave and slave-driver.
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#1
temporal
URL
December 30, 2007
02:49 PM

Benazir's Last Will Shows Her True Colors

In her death, she spoke like the feudal she was at heart, treating her party like her jaagir (personal fiefdom.) She wrote the leadership of PPP should remain within the Bhutto clan.

While there are more eligible candidates in the Bhutto clan, she did not mean them, but her own son Bilawal Zardari, 19 who promptly and publicly consented to change his name to Bilawal Bhutto Zardari.

Following the Nuadero meeting of the Central Executive Committee of the PPP, Asif Zardari spoke impromptu, mixing languages, stammering and was incoherent at times. Until he learns public speaking, perhaps he should stick to 'reading.' Bilawal a teenager spoke well - in English - he has just lost his mother and has been thrust in the limelight - perhaps unwittingly. So, I would be kind and refrain from any comments.

If we are to believe reporters, PPP is a nationwide party with supports from people in all provinces, and had a good chance to win votes in the coming elections, then I wonder - who are the leaders at the provincial and local levels? And do they have any conscience? Or is PPP full off chamchas (yes man) like all other parties?

How can any party fight for democracy, and free and fair alphabet-soup of demands and display not one iota of conscience at this blatant travesty of democratic norms?

And the second tier leadership of PPP lacks in honesty too. At least, if they were honest, they would acknowledge they accept all this because their greed and lust for power overwhelms their other senses.

Today, greed won - injustice won - nepotism won- once again - and you, me and Pakistan lost.

#2
blokesablogin
December 30, 2007
03:44 PM

I cant believe that we have a Bhutto family to rival the Nehru family in India. How different is Sonia pushing Rahul to the fore? Sonia truly beilieves that the congress is her personal Jaagir! I sincerely hope that Rahul doesnt come to the end his father and grandmother came to. It is just not worth it.

#3
Chandra
December 30, 2007
03:44 PM


Welcome to the Congress Party of Pakistan.......

#4
Sanjay
December 30, 2007
10:30 PM

If Pak wants a Congress Party, then Zardari will have to go from Mr 10% to Mr 20%

But more importantly, why was the crime scene hosed down before investigators could gather evidence??

It seems as if Musharraf's govt doesn't want the identity of the killers uncovered. A responsible administration would have first tried to scour the entire scene for vital forensic evidence. But here the govt has done exactly the opposite. WHY??

I find this behavior very noteworthy.

#5
Sanjay
December 30, 2007
10:51 PM

Take a look at this new video footage which has just come out:

http://www.cnn.com/2007/WORLD/asiapcf/12/30/pakistan.politics/index.html?eref=rss_topstories

This video clearly shows Benazir Bhutto collapsing as she is hit by gunshots. You can also see her headscarf flapping upwards, as the bullet impacts below it. The explosion from the suicide bomber occurs afterwards.

The Musharraf govt is firmly claiming that Bhutto had no gunshot injuries, and that she was only killed by the bomb blast itself. This new video shows that to be a total lie.

It is now looking increasingly like the Musharraf govt does not want the truth to come out. I find the govt's behavior to be very disturbing.

#6
Sanjay
December 30, 2007
11:07 PM

WTF, I wish the DesiCritics goofballs would focus a little less on being Thought Police, and a little more on making their site function better. Here, I've had to re-map that CNN video link of the new footage:

Click Here

#7
Sanjay
December 30, 2007
11:09 PM

Bah, just copy-paste my original link into your browser address bar. I don't think the staff here know how to program worth a damn, anyway.

#8
temporal
URL
December 30, 2007
11:36 PM

I don't know if this is a trial balloon. I don't know who this guy is. But I do know I predicted Mr. Thali ka Baigan aka Nawaz Sharif would back track yet again on his decision to boycott the elections. There is no honour amongst this breed of crooks. Almost without exception the current breed of politicians reek of opportunism and greed. Read on

#9
Tanay
URL
December 31, 2007
12:17 AM

#7 Sanjay, Please try to be express courtesy and politeness when you are not sure on something. Guess you didn't link the URL properly and don't put the blame on the programers and techies who maintain this site...

Now if you follow the comment by #8 temporal, the one immediate next to yours, there is something Read on and it gets linked to the underlying URL perfectly.

Guess you got the message and calm down ;)

#10
Sanjay
December 31, 2007
12:18 AM

At first, I didn't think that Musharraf was involved, but now I'm beginning to feel suspicious. His govt is behaving in a manner that is consistent with suppressing the evidence. If Mush was truly innocent, he'd be doing more to get the facts out, rather than trying to block any investigative progress. The site would not have been hosed down to wash away vital evidence. The govt's insistence that there were no gunshot wounds, in the face of glaring evidence to the contrary, is alarming.

He still has that headstrong reputation. He's looking more and more culpable with each passing hour.

#11
Sanjay
December 31, 2007
12:21 AM
#12
Sanjay
December 31, 2007
12:22 AM

Tanay, why not put your money where your mouth is, and try to post the link yourself? The site won't publish it.

#14
khojidesi
December 31, 2007
01:13 AM

I can't understand Bilawal lived his entire life in England and Dubai, he is Political Science student, strange he did not learn anything about party Democracy, at least, he, a product of new enlightened generation should have rejected the post and given some sense to the wish of her great Democratic mother(who believed that Democracy is the biggest revenge). And the aam junta of Pakistan would vote for any puppet beside the pic of martyr BB.
Nobody becomes a saint just because they are six feet under, so is with Benazeer. (I would call her BEGHAIRAT)

#15
khojidesi
December 31, 2007
01:18 AM

Angrez chod gaye lekin log Ghulami nahi chodenge. It was English before and Bhutoo, shareef clan now.

#16
Chandra
December 31, 2007
03:02 AM


the best solution for Pakistan is to split into 5-6 major republics (like USSR). The enterprising people of Punjab and Sind will do very well without the laggards of Balochistan and Pathanistan (NWFP).

#17
khojidesi
December 31, 2007
03:15 AM

Chandra # 16,
Then Bhuttos will get Sind, Nawaz will get Punjab, Osama will get NWFP. yes Altaf hussain will get another Vatican that is Karachi. And Balochistan will be left for, they need somebody, Bughti clan can own it.

#18
commonsenseforall
December 31, 2007
03:55 AM

On this issue, an interesting essay by Tariq Ali on Bhutto in the recent issue of the London Review of Books. Interestingly, the essay is titled "Daughter of the West" in opposition to her own forthcoming book titled "Daugher of the East". Really fascinating study of Bhutto's character, feudal politics etc. although I'm not sure how accurate it is:

http://www.lrb.co.uk/v29/n24/ali_01_.html

#19
temporal
URL
December 31, 2007
01:40 PM

#18:

"daughter of the east" published as "daughter of destiny" in the US is OLD

chandra 16:

got tired of mike and orissa:)

#20
Chandra
December 31, 2007
01:44 PM

T

Kyon beta? Dimag khaney ka dar hain kya?

#21
Sanjay
December 31, 2007
01:45 PM

Again, why is the Musharraf govt going out of its way to claim there were no gunshots that hit Benazir Bhutto? What could be the purpose of making such a claim and defending it?

My intuition tells me they wish to avoid disclosing the full details of what caused Bhutto's death, because they themselves may have had a hand in it.

There was no reason for the govt to hose down the crime scene, especially when investigators were not first given a chance to gather evidence from it. The govt has allowed this because it wanted the evidence to be washed away.

Something smells funny about this whole situation.

#22
temporal
URL
December 31, 2007
01:48 PM

My heart bleeds for Pakistan. It deserves better than this grotesque feudal charade

Six hours before she was executed, Mary, Queen of Scots wrote to her brother-in-law, Henry III of France: "...As for my son, I commend him to you in so far as he deserves, for I cannot answer for him." The year was 1587.

On 30 December 2007, a conclave of feudal potentates gathered in the home of the slain Benazir Bhutto to hear her last will and testament being read out and its contents subsequently announced to the world media. Where Mary was tentative, her modern-day equivalent left no room for doubt. She could certainly answer for her son.

A triumvirate consisting of her husband, Asif Zardari (one of the most venal and discredited politicians in the country and still facing corruption charges in three European courts) and two ciphers will run the party till Benazir's 19-year-old son, Bilawal, comes of age. He will then become chairperson-for-life and, no doubt, pass it on to his children. The fact that this is now official does not make it any less grotesque. The Pakistan People's Party is being treated as a family heirloom, a property to be disposed of at the will of its leader.

Nothing more, nothing less. Poor Pakistan. Poor People's Party supporters. Both deserve better than this disgusting, medieval charade.
LINK

#23
temporal
URL
December 31, 2007
02:01 PM

chandra:

nahin bhai nahin:)

if someone flogs a dead horse (not knowing the horse is dead) it is time to make better use of one's time;)

#24
Chandra
December 31, 2007
02:01 PM

T

What is the solution for Pakistan? Mush's staying or leaving will change nothing.

#25
temporal
URL
December 31, 2007
02:04 PM

sanjay:

that brigadier cheema is naive or stupid or both

save your breath and click on the second xray to the link in the article

it shows a big hole in her skull

these xrays were released by brig. cheema in the same 'hit the sun roof' press conference

i don't think they are hiding anything - they are just plain dumb

#26
temporal
URL
December 31, 2007
02:06 PM

chandra:

the solution?

this is what i wrote in the last paragraph:

The only thing that can be said with certainty is the coming months will be full of uncertainty. And the forces of dark glow with glee at it.

#27
Chandra
December 31, 2007
02:54 PM

T

Uncertainity yes....but other metrics seem to be extremely positive- Development metrics, economic metrics, independent media, better external situation (India). Three negatives remain- Fundamentalism, Dictatorship and the Chaos at the border. Compare this with 1999

- Negative Dev metrics
- Poor economic metrics
- Much lower media consumption and availability
- Very poor external situation (India)
- Fundamentalism
- Corrupt and incompetent Govt (nawaz)
- Better border situation with Afganistan.

In other words, most of the metrics were negative. Musharraf has done more positive than most Pakistanis agree. having said that the lack of instutions that can take over in the event of Mush's death is a major drawback. That is the the biggest Joker in the pack.

rgsd

#28
Sanjay
January 1, 2008
01:15 AM

temporal, I just had an ugly thought inside my ugly Shylock brain:

It was widely reported that Zardari's marriage to Benazir had started breaking down - that's no secret. Like many political families, they were just keeping the marriage going for appearance's sake.

What if Zardari had sold out, and cut a deal with someone who wanted wifey bumped off and "suddenly removed" from the picture? A fellow like Musharraf?

Then Zardari gets son Bilawal named party head, while Zardari remains the real power behind the son's throne?

It's being reported that it was Zardari who pointedly refused to allow an autopsy done on his wife, on the grounds that it "would be an insult to her", sacrilege, etc.

If such accounts are true, then I'd find such behavior to be highly suspicious.

Meanwhile, the govt is doing its part by insisting there were no gunshots fired into Bhutto, insisting that it was only the blast and her head impacting the lever which did her in.

The govt also does its part by quickly having the crime scene hosed down, washing away evidence, instead of quarantining the area to preserve evidence for investigators.

What if Mushy and Mr-10-Percent have cut a deal?
It's quite plausible that neither man might miss having Benazir "suddenly removed". Indeed, both men might benefit, and live happily ever after.

#29
Sanjay
January 1, 2008
02:57 AM

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/31/world/asia/31inquiry.html

At a news conference Sunday, Ms. Bhutto's husband, Asif Ali Zardari, said he had declined a request for a post-mortem examination. "It was an insult to my wife, an insult to the sister of the nation, an insult to the mother of the nation," he said. "I know their forensic reports are useless. I refuse to give them her last remains."

#30
Sujai
URL
January 1, 2008
12:45 PM

I am sad for Pakistan. The dynastic politics, the bane of South Asia, has gripped Pakistan in its vice much firmer than in some of its neighbors.

Pakistan never enjoyed good leadership.

The only hope for Pakistan is its moderates- who comprise a huge population. According to me, the biggest number of moderate Muslims on the planet reside in Pakistan. Yet, they have been hijacked by one wily leader after another. Not very different from India, but for Pakistanis it has been worse.

Pakistani moderates should rise above their petty differences, unite, and raise their voice, and ask for better institutions. They should throw the garb and charade of being Islamic. Religion has never been or never will be the tool to rule one's people.

#31
kerty
January 1, 2008
03:03 PM

Sujai..

Pakistan will always remain a nation of moslems, but it has to fashion a polity that does not vest all its powers to Mullahs and Military. To do that, it must fashion a polity that is not Islamic. To do that, large moderate constituency is a must. To do that, it must rein in on its Jehadism and anti-Indiaism - that is Mush's mandate or whoever takes power in Pakisitan. If Pakistan can not deliver on that, it will be overshadowed by terrorists of its own. However, it is not clear if new USA administration will have the same priority to fight Jehadism - also there is growing sense among leftists of SE Asia that fighting Jehadism is not an urgency as it could actually prove useful to checkmate political developments in India. Thus Mush's stature has become uncertain and will have to diminish. Much depends on hardline GOP retaining power in USA. If situation in Pakistan becomes a political liability for GOP, Mush will become an orphan that neither USA, India or Pakistani poeple would want to own.

#32
Ledzius
January 2, 2008
11:19 AM

What is the big deal about bullet vs bomb? Is there any hint of invlovement of a second assassin, just like JFK?

Otherwise, how does it matter how she got killed? I don't understand the need for a cover-up.

#33
temporal
URL
January 2, 2008
03:05 PM

sharing from my blog:

Where is the Will

To no one's surprise no body is questioning the will of Benazir Bhutto. It is understandable to an extent why the western electronic and print media might have overlooked it.

In the west the last will and testament is a legal document that is signed and dated by the person making the will, declaring him/herself to be of sound mind, witnessed by two persons, and attested by an attorney by affixing a seal.

I have inquired unsuccessfully and have learned that some others who have been covering the meeting of the CEC (central executive committee) of the PPP have been rebuffed.

This is what can be surmised from various reports and on air statements.

* Two days prior to her departure for Karachi on October 18, 2007 Benazir Bhutto wrote this alleged will and found time to write several letters to her colleagues, friends and party officials that she entrusted with a 'female servant.' After her assassination the will and those letters were handed to Asif Zardari.

* He has claimed that the will was read and verified by lawyers and party officials.

* No reports have surfaced to date about the other "letters."

* No facsimiles or copies have been made available to party leaders, members or the media for scrutiny.

There are two sides to any public person. This will deals with Benazir's public side. This will should be made available immediately for scrutiny.

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