What if Turkish Forces Went Into Northern Iraq?

The Turkish Government is going to ask for Parliamentary approval to carry out punitive counter-terrorism actions against Kurdish rebels in Northern Iraq. Hot Pursuit. Invasion. Call it what you may, but this will involve thousands of soldiers, an air campaign, armored thrusts, the whole shebang.

This is not going to be a good step for Turkey to take. Turkey is not going to listen to the USA (which certainly doesn't want Turkey to attack Iraq) because of the Armenian Genocide. But instead of me trying to explain why, here are some made up news-stories which may or may not reflect the future.

Dateline: 20 January 2008

More than 40 Turkish soldiers were killed when a Peshmerga suicide bomber blew himself up next to the Turkish military convoy which was on the way to Kirkuk. The Turkish military made a lightning campaign with armoured support thrusts into Northern Iraq in early November. The Kurdish forces, more typically known as a police force or at best a para-military force, faded in front of the Turkish forces and are now in a full-fledged guerrilla campaign against the Turkish forces. Previously, the PKK was rather isolated from the main Kurdish political parties but with the invasion, the PKK is now backed by all the Kurds. To further complicate matters, the Shia groups are providing support to the Kurds and more indirect support is being seen by Iranian based groups.

Dateline: 15 March 2008

A massive tanker bomb killed 200 civilians in a market place in northern Iraq. Al Queda in Iraq has announced that they were responsible and they will support the Sunni Turkish forces and target the Kurds. The Kurds are asking for support from their Shia allies and rogue elements of the al-Sadr army have released a statement promising retribution against Sunni's. More bodies discovered in Baghdad. A separate report released today by UNHCR claimed that Baghdad is now almost completely ethnically divided. The Belfast solution of having tall long strong walls separating the communities is now being proposed. For all practical purposes, the walls already exist with local community check points in place with no sign of coalition forces or Iraqi forces.

Dateline: 30 March 2008

It was a bloody day in Turkey today with bombs in Ankara that blew up one of the Atatürk memorials, a bomb in south eastern Turkey town marketplace that killed 30 civilians, and a series of bombs in Istanbul which targeted the American Library, HSBC Bank, European PR Office and other western targets. There were confused reports of groups claiming responsibility ranging from Islamists upset with the European Human Rights Court ruling on Sunni Islam teaching, a group allied to Al Queda claiming responsibility for the bombs against HSBC bank and American Library, and Kurdish separatist groups claiming responsibility for attacks on the Turkish civilians. A Turkish hardline judge was assassinated as he drove to his office by a suicide car bomber.

At a Turkish army briefing, Chief of Army Staff General Otaz promised bloody retribution against the Kurds, Iranian backed rebels and other terrorist groups. He also blamed the weakness of the mildly Islamist Turkish government for allowing all these bombings to happen. When asked about the withdrawal of Turkish forces from Northern Iraq, he said that withdrawal will only happen when the PKK unilaterally agrees to put down their arms and ask for a ceasefire. More troops are promised to be deployed and the first Army Gunship forces will now be deployed in front line positions with a looser rules of engagement framework. Analysts are predicting a coup to happen any time.

Dateline: 05 April 2008

The Internet was full of chatter on Islamist websites about a video launched by a previously unknown group called Mujahideen for the Caliphate, promising help to the Turkish forces fighting the Shia infidels. Syria has reported a movement of Saudi jihadi's into northern Iraq and Turkey. In the meantime, the British Prime Minister announced an accelerated withdrawal of British forces from Southern Iraq claiming that Iraqi forces were trained and only advisory forces will be present in Iraq.

President George Bush is under severe pressure for withdrawal domestically after the American killed count exceeded 6,000. In the meantime, it is now the second month that the Iraqi Parliament has not met, citing irreconcilable differences between the Sunni, Shia and Kurdish groups. Hillary Clinton, the most probable new president, announced last week that she has changed her mind and is now asking for withdrawal of US forces by end of the year 2008 at the latest. In the interim, she has asked for an international conference on Iraq with parties drawn from all sides.