http://desicritics.org/ Superior South Asian bloggers on Culture, Media, Politics, Sport, Business, and Technology. en Copyright 2006 by the authors Wed, 28 Feb 2007 13:33:09 EST http://backend.userland.com/rss BC custom software http://desicritics.org/2007/02/27/064352.php#comment-112514 BD - mostly agree with your analysis. However, I think there is a major player that is being left out of the US in Iran analysis (not just here but in the US): Russia - which has huge petroleum, but also other interests. I wouldn't discount the bear in geostrategy - which is the way most West is going. Interestingly enough Khaled Meshal (Hamas) - post Mecca agreement and just this past week - was in Moscow and the boycott pact seems to have been broken by Russia. As Chandra says - we do live in interesting times! 112514@desicritics.org Wed, 28 Feb 2007 13:33:09 EST http://desicritics.org/2007/02/27/064352.php#comment-112375 no, i didnt know about where they bought the refined POL stuff from but the fact that they are purchasing from India does come as a surprise to me. Quite interesting! speaks volumes about our internal transport infrastructure that we are able to export but not circulate internally! but there you go with the plane crashes! :) ok, now I have to go off and listen to the head of the Iraqi counter insurgency forces who is going tell us all about what a wonderful job he is doing :) cheers bd 112375@desicritics.org Wed, 28 Feb 2007 10:59:52 EST http://desicritics.org/2007/02/27/064352.php#comment-112348 Did you know that they bought a lot of refined petroleum from india? The bazaar is indeed a barometer of how things would proceed. I have not heard about the plane crashes ...But i did hear about a top nuclear scientist getting killed. A summary of overt/ covert actions so far Jan 9th 2006: The commanders who died in the crash included Brigadier General Ahmad Kazemi, commander of the IRGC Ground Forces and a rising star in Iran's radical Islamist military, Brigadier General Saeed Mohtadi, commander of the IRGC's 27 Mohammad Division, Brigadier General Hanif, Director of Intelligence of the IRGC Ground Forces, Brigadier General Soleimani, Director of Operations of the IRGC Ground Forces, and Brigadier General Yazdani, Commander of the IRGC Artillery (What kind of idiots travel in a single plane?????) 06 May 2006: A group opposed to the government of Iran announced on Saturday that its members had executed a local commander of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) in the south-eastern province of Sistan-va-Baluchistan. September 4, 2006. Iran Plane Crash Kills Dozens An Iranian passenger plane skidded off the runway while landing and raked its wing along the ground, sparking a fire that killed 29 of the 148 people on board in the latest deadly crash of a Russian-made aircraft. (Civilians only) September 9 2006: The U.S. government imposed sanctions on an Iranian bank on Friday, The move against Bank Saderat was announced by Stuart Levey, the undersecretary for treasury, who accused the major state-owned bank in Iran of transferring funds for alleged terrorist groups, including Hezbollah. October 18th: Head of top Iran bank fired after U.S. sanctions imposed Wed. 18 Oct 2006 Iran Focus Tehran, Iran, Oct. 18 –Hamid Borhani, who headed Bank Saderat Iran, was fired for failing to cooperate with the government on credit provisions that have been pledged by hard-line Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as part of his populist platform. (wonder why) Nov 27, 2006: Iran military plane crash kills 38 . A Iranian military plane belonging to the Revolutionary Guards crashed on Monday, killing 38 people, state television reported. It identified the dead as 35 Guards and three crew. An official at Tehran's Mehrabad airport told state radio all those on board had been killed but did not give a figure Jan 9: 2007, Designation of Bank Sepah for Facilitating Iran's Weapons Program Feb 05, 2007: Radio Farda, which is funded by the US State Department and broadcasts to Iran, reported that nuclear physicist Ardeshire Hassanpour, 44, had died in mysterious circumstances. Feb 14, 2007: A car bomb attack killed at least 11 members of Iran's elite Revolutionary Guard in southeastern Iran this morning, according to state media. The Fars news agency said a dissident Sunni group had claimed responsibility for the blast. FEBRUARY 21: India today imposed a ban on export of any material and technology to Iran that could be used in development of its nuclear weapons and delivery systems. The decision is in compliance with last year's UN Security Council resolution feb 21: The Russian nuclear equipment and services monopoly said Wednesday it has sent its Iranian partners a timeframe for settling an outstanding debt on construction of a nuclear power plant in southern Iran. Pavlov said the construction of the Bushehr NPP could take more time than expected. But Mohammad Saidi, the deputy director of Iran's Atomic Energy Agency, said Monday there had been no delays in payments to Russia for the construction of a nuclear plant in Iran. Feb 26, 2007: TEHRAN: At least 13 soldiers, including two Revolutionary Guards commanders, were killed when an Iranian military helicopter crashed near the border with Turkey on Saturday, Iran's student news agency ISNA reported on Monday Feb 26: Media reports in the Arab world suggested, however, that President General Pervez Musharraf aims to establish a Sunni alliance to confront rising influence of Iran in the region."This is not designed to isolate any country," Mr Erdogan told the Qatari-based Al Jazeera television network. "It should not be taken from this (point of view)," he said in the interview recorded in Istanbul. The foreign ministers belonging to Egypt, Indonesia, Malaysia, Turkey, Jordan and Saudi Arabia laid the groundwork for a summit of Muslim leaders at an unspecified date in Makkah. 112348@desicritics.org Wed, 28 Feb 2007 10:38:49 EST http://desicritics.org/2007/02/27/064352.php#comment-112267 chandra also dont forget that the bazaari's are squealing very hard because the sanctions are biting very hard in turn. The mullah's oil infrastructure is crumbling, the regime has to spend its crude money on refined oil product imports. Also, reflect on another related point. The number of airplane crashes with senior commanders (of the army and revolutionary guard) is now running at roughly 1-2 per month. Bad maintainance is one reason, but wow, I would have expected planes carrying senior chaps to be checked deeply. 112267@desicritics.org Wed, 28 Feb 2007 08:53:45 EST http://desicritics.org/2007/02/27/064352.php#comment-112192 As "surrender M******" President Chirac once said, Iran would be wiped out of the map before a single missile took off from Teheran for Tel Aviv. The first gossip I am hearing is that Pakistan and Iran are considering the option of arming the Taliban in order to bleed NATO. The second gossip I am hearing is that the Saudis and Iranians have signed a deal that will allow the gradual weakening of the Hizbollah. Good for Israel eh!...Of course the Makkah agreement is not positive for Israel at all....... BD, I agree with you. as much as I can see the Americans indulging in a covert war, I can also see the possibility of NATO bleeding in both Afghanistan and Iraq. Secondly, the whole timelines for covert/ overt action are going to be under tremendous pressure should the "surge" in Iraq fail. This month has seen 80 odd casualities and no let up in bombings and civilian casualties. Like I said, we are living in interesting time....and I hope the mullahs compromise.....It is a wise thing to fight your battles when you are the strongest, not when you are all set for a second round of sanctions..... 112192@desicritics.org Wed, 28 Feb 2007 07:41:46 EST http://desicritics.org/2007/02/27/064352.php#comment-112118 Ruvy Anybody who has missiles poses a threat to others. Russia has missiles, Ukraine has missiles, Iran already has missiles, Saudi Arabia has missiles, everybody has missiles. Second, payloads. dollar for dollar, a fuel air explosive payload is cheaper and more cost effective, so you dont really need big hulking nukes. So if Iran did want to obliterate Israel, it could have already done so. So in the greater scheme of things, threats need to be managed. War is a very stupid way of managing threats. Pre-emptive strikes are not possible by Israel and USA. So, its covert war all over the place and given the current political situation, i think that will work out. As for Hizballah, well, what can I say, Ruvy. I am very disappointed in Israel's inability to handle those buggers. But there you go! I think the Israeli army needs couple of defeats to understand the rules of the game have changed. Lebanon gave them twice, but to what extent it has learnt, I am not sure. Ah! well. cheers bd 112118@desicritics.org Wed, 28 Feb 2007 06:00:40 EST http://desicritics.org/2007/02/27/064352.php#comment-111984 By the way, I agree with Anamikas's assessment that America's involvement in this region, first with Iraq and prospectively with Iran, will be what brings the American empire tumbling down... 111984@desicritics.org Wed, 28 Feb 2007 02:34:19 EST http://desicritics.org/2007/02/27/064352.php#comment-111983 Another interesting article, bd. I suggest that there is no nuclear threat from Iran to anybody. They do not appear to have the materials to fill missiles with either fission or fusion bombs - at least not at present. But they do present a missile threat to the entire Middle East, and to parts of Europe, and should their ambitions take them in that direction, to the Indian sub-continent, though presently that threat would appear trumped by Indian and Pakistani nuclear capabilities... One need not fire only nuclear weapons in missiles. One can send biological agents, nuclear waste, and poison gas. In addition, one can load the missiles with standard explosives. The Azrieli Tower in Tel Aviv is just as susceptible to destruction from a conventional missile as a nuclear one. Finbally, with respect to Israel specifically, (remember, Ahmadinejad and other Iranian leaders in the past have called for the end of this country's existence), the threat also comes from HizbAllah, a Persian puppet. For this reason, it is in Israel's interest to attempt a pre-emptive strike to at least weaken Iran. I do not see that happening. But all those American ships in the Persian Gulf are not there for a vacation... 111983@desicritics.org Wed, 28 Feb 2007 02:31:00 EST http://desicritics.org/2007/02/27/064352.php#comment-111444 Chandra #5, most of the IED attacks on the allied forces in Iraq were done by the Sunni forces, and if you look at what Seymour Hersh is saying, and if you believe in what he says, then if Iran does ratchet up the pressure, the americans will be out of there in a flash because their lives will be made very difficult. Not only that, dont forget that baluchistan and western afganistan (herat and environs) are also iranian influence territory, so they can make life very difficult but I personally think the mullah's will back down. cheers bd 111444@desicritics.org Tue, 27 Feb 2007 13:53:07 EST http://desicritics.org/2007/02/27/064352.php#comment-111317 There has been a buzz about covert war and the killed of 11 members of the Qod forces in eastern Iran is being bandied as an example.....My point is will the Iranians not respond by tightening the screws in Iraq itself? Too many ifs and buts....the next 6 months are going to be very interesting!!!! 111317@desicritics.org Tue, 27 Feb 2007 11:50:54 EST http://desicritics.org/2007/02/27/064352.php#comment-111266 thanks guys i dont think USA will go for an overt war, covert war seems to work. I hope so! 111266@desicritics.org Tue, 27 Feb 2007 11:15:57 EST http://desicritics.org/2007/02/27/064352.php#comment-111082 Interesting piece BD. I agree with your analysis for most part. I think going into Iran would be foolhardy for the US (but isn't going to stop them). How will the US take on a people willing to send out 12 year old boys to be "martyrs" and who celebrate the martyrs of their last war with a fountain spouting blood red liquid!! I I also think it is important to note that Iran fought a proxy war with Iraq and basically took on the might of the US-led Western world, and at a time it was barely functional economically or politically. And yet it fought for eight years before accepting the treaty. Many with a longer view of history (as many Iranians hold) would tell you that Iran in the long term "won" that war with Iraq (see where Iraq stands today). I do so hope that sense shall prevail in Washington DC and they won't go into Iran. In comparison, Iraq will seem a playground squabble. But that hope gives way before evidence of mounting war rhetoric. Wonder if this will be the "quagmire" that brings down the American empire? 111082@desicritics.org Tue, 27 Feb 2007 08:16:12 EST http://desicritics.org/2007/02/27/064352.php#comment-111079 BD..One more good piece.......will respond in detail.... It is saddening to hear that the bombing will indeed happen....Poor ordinary Iranians will suffer a lot...and as usual the Iranians will get thrashed by the Americans like nobody's business.......of course no one knows what will happen after the bombing will end.......that is the big unknown!!! 111079@desicritics.org Tue, 27 Feb 2007 08:01:54 EST http://desicritics.org/2007/02/27/064352.php#comment-111054 I had written comments #6 and #7 on this possible war with Iran and why it might not happen. http://desicritics.org/2007/02/26/002600.php The more one looks, the more it is clear U.S democracy is fragile and people though believe they have a voice are utterly marginalized. It is clear from the fact that a strong anti-war movement before the war could not get 2 minutes in the public sphere. So, like Seymour Hersh says, perhaps there will be a war and people will be notified later of it when the govt sees fit. 111054@desicritics.org Tue, 27 Feb 2007 07:44:14 EST