Raj Thackeray's Navnirman Sena - Old Wine, New Bottle?

Political observers in the Indian state of Maharashtra must be rubbing their hands at the interesting coalition possibilities that has opened up with the launch of the Navnirman Sena.

But first a background perspective for politics in Maharashtra. The state is presently being governed by the Congress in coalition with their ally the Nationalist Congress Party (or NCP.) In the opposition are the Shiv Sena and their own coalition ally the Bharatiya Janata Party or BJP. The Sena-BJP combine was in power until last year.

There has been a power struggle in the Shiv Sena ever since the party founder Bal Thackeray personally anointed his son Uddhav Thackeray as the successor last year. This did not go down too well with other claimants to his throne, notably the Konkan belt strongman Narayan Rane and Uddhav's cousin Raj Thackeray.

In July 2005, Rane went public with his dissatisfaction with Uddhav. He went one step further and stated that the party's rank and file were more in tune with Raj than Uddhav. He was promptly expelled from the Shiv Sena. Given his political clout it came as no surprise when he was immediately welcomed into the Congress party, which also gave him a ministerial berth. Rane lost no time in giving a a demonstration of his political weight in the assembly election that took place soon after in Rane's stronghold in the Konkan. Rane, now with the Congress fought and thrashed the Shiv Sena candidate, Parsuram Uparkar. This in spite of the fact that the Sena had gone all out to defeat Rane. Bal Thackeray even put his prestige on the line and campaigned for the Sena candidate. It was to no avail as Rane resoundingly defeated Uparkar underlining his mass base in the region. Significantly Raj Thackeray did not campaign for the Sena against Rane in the Malwan by-poll.

Interestingly, politically, both Rane and Raj Thackeray are considered to still cling to the old Sena hard line of Maharashtra for the Maharashtrians. Many observers feel that this anachronistic philosophy was the reason the Sena lost the last Assembly elections and a more inclusive poll plank was required. Ironically it is the old patriarch's son Uddhav Thackeray who has been attempting to create this new face of the Sena. Moderate, literate and modern. The differing idealogies of the Raj / Rane faction and the Uddhav faction may have been another reason for the power struggle within the Sena.

As expected Raj Thackeray quit the Sena in December 2005. Raj Thackeray has now floated a new party, the Navnirman Sena. It is significant that he did not join the Congress as his ally Rane did.

This new development means a headache for both the Congress and the Shiv Sena.

The NCP, headed by Maratha chieftain Sharad Pawar is in alliance with the Congress. But the NCP is in fact a breakaway faction of the Congress and there is considerable animos between the two at the street level. The NCP is opposed in essence to the Congress's continued dependence on the Gandhi family. Sonia Gandhi being of Italian origin has been a further goad. The coalition between the Congress and NCP whether at the state or the national level is thus very much a marriage of convenience.

With the new party of Raj, there are now approximately 7 significant players on the Maharashtrian stage, the Congress, the NCP, the Uddhav Shiv Sena, the BJP, Narayan Rane, Raj Thackeray's Navnirman Sena and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP).

Three new and very different coalitions are now real possibilities,

NCP + Narayan Rane + Raj Thackeray - The NCP snaps ties with the Congress and tangoes with Narayan Rane (who is expected by most to join the Navnirman Sena) and Raj. This, if it works out will be a win-win for all three since it demonstrates that the old war horses, the Congress and Sena are no longer where it's at in Maharashtra. The power sharing equation is also likely to be more equitable as each shareholder brings in a sizeable chunk of votes. Factors against this coalition are that the NCP is a secular party which might be uncomfortable with the Rane and Raj philosophy (if they still stick to the old line). This also does not make sense for the NCP at the national level.

NCP + Uddhav Shiv Sena + BJP - Now that the Sena is acquiring a makeover with the rise of Uddhav and the exit of hardliners Raj and Rane, the NCP might well tie up with the Sena and the BJP. In fact, there have been tantalising signs of possibilities in this direction even before. This might even become a national alliance since two of the parties, the NCP and the BJP are of national standing. Given that the Congress deification of and reliance on the Gandhi Nehru family shows no sign of slackening with Rahul Gandhi also having entered the lists, this alliance might suit the NCP. The NCP might decide that a more secular, moderate Sena and BJP is a better ally than playing second fiddle to a Gandhi dominated Congress.

Congress + Rane + Raj Thackeray - Just as the NCP is antagonistic to the Congress, so does the Congress detest the NCP. At present the Congress is forced to depend on Pawar. But Narayan Rane is already in the Congress and if it allies with Raj Thackeray, they might be able to pull off a victory in the elections without the support of the NCP. This works for the Congress even at a national level because the NCP constantly threatens to become a beacon for all disaffected Congressmen opposed to the Gandhi dominance of the party. A weakened NCP thus is good for the Congress, both at the state and the national level.

Let's wait and watch.