Indo-US N-deal: More Clarity Needed

You can fool all the people some of the time and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time.
-quote falsely attributed to U.S. President Abraham Lincoln.

We follow up on the issue of Indo-US nuclear deal with details on the recent developments. In this post, we approach this issue on its own merit thus effectively de-linking with the Iranian vote issue. A different take on the issue from Secular-Right and The Acorn respectively. We enthusiastically supported the July 18th Indo-US nuclear agreement which we thought could play a key role in solving India's energy problems. We now have some serious concerns on the present state of the deal and constant shifting of goal posts by U.S officials. This casts a serious doubt on the real intent of the United States behind the deal. We are also concerned by the lack of public debate on this important issue.

India's strategic triad of nuclear forces have always concerned Western military strategists and non-proliferation ayatollahs despite its exemplary non-proliferation despite living among the 'Proliferation Wal-Marts of the World' (link highly recommended). As a non-signatory of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), India can neither get technical assistance nor purchase components/Uranium supply needed for its civilian or military reactors.

Thanks to the pioneering vision of Dr. Homi Jehangir Bhabha, India has had a brilliant indigenous nuclear programme counting among the few countries which can design, build and operate reactors on its own. The bottleneck is the supply of fissile material - mostly Uranium, which we have very little of. So far all of India's Uranium requirements have come from domestic mining by the Uranium Corporation of India Limited (UCIL). Of late, UCIL has been facing 'resistance' due to environmental concerns from local villagers or 'concerned' NGOs though there are encouraging signs in the discovery of new mines. In fact, this is one good reason to continue developing Fast Breeder Reactors (FBR) for power generation which uses very less Uranium/Plutonium but Thorium as the principal material, which India has plenty (more below).

Question #1: What are the advantages of the N-deal?

With low domestic Uranium reserves in India, it is estimated that the maximum installed capacity cannot exceed 20,000 MW over a 40 year period. This is clearly not enough given India's rapid industrialization and economic growth. Now if the N-deal goes through, India can buy natural Uranium at market prices and import as many reactors from abroad under IAEA regulations. Indian businesses and households can benefit immensely from the availability of affordable and uninterrupted power supply - essential for India's development.

Question #2: What did the July 18th deal say about existing treaties?

The original text of the Indo-US deal talked about signing the 'multilateral' Fissile Missile Cut-off Treaty (FMCT). Note the word multilateral. Since none of the 'declared' Nuclear Weapons States (NWS) have signed or will sign this treaty, India too does not have to sign it. Indeed, as we speak the United States is developing tactical bunker-busting mini-nukes, the United Kingdom is replacing its Trident strategic missile system and the French President Jacques Chirac has recently announced a First Nuclear Strike policy if their 'vital interests' are attacked.

Conclusion #1: FMCT will never be signed by existing Nuclear Weapons States.

Question #2: What is this 'voluntary' separation plan?

The agreement also emphasized on the 'voluntary' separation of its civil and nuclear facilities. Alas as of today, the U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has termed India has 'difficult choices' to make and 'analysts' have raised 'concerns' about setting an arms race in Asia. Hey, whatever happened to the word 'voluntary'? So the uber-smart Americans want us to 'voluntarily' (note the oxymoron) declare most of India's reactors as civilian with IAEA safeguards, that way they can indirectly put a cap on the strategic programme. It is not yet known on the number of reactors that will be placed under civilian list. Former Atomic Energy Regulatory Board chairman, Dr. A. Gopalakrishnan wrote that only the five new Pressurized Heavy Water Reactors (PHWR) nuclear reactors under construction can be placed under civilian list but warned against letting in IAEA inspectors for any of the existing PHWR.

Conclusion #2: This isn't 'voluntary' but obligatory.

Question #3: So, what is the real intention of the separation plan?

India's initial proposal excluded its FBR programme to be placed in its civilian list. Of course, there was never a question of including the Cirrus and Dhruva reactors, officially classified as 'research reactors' in the Bhabha Atomic Research Center (BARC) from where most of the fissile materials comes for India's weapons programme. In addition, the Rare Materials Plant (RMP), a Uranium enrichment facility utilized for the classified nuclear submarine programme christened Advanced Technology Vessel (ATV), which was also off the civilian list. But barring the Dhruva reactor, the U.S. wants to place most of the reactors under civilian list. Prof. Bharat Karnad, a top defense policy analyst warns the underlying assumption of the N-deal - is to put a cap on the available fissile material, and thus the weapons programme itself.

Conclusion #3: Need to take in the Armed Forces and principal Opposition parties into confidence.

Question #4: Will everything be hunky-dory if an agreement is eventually reached?

International Uranium prices have been steadily increasing over the past few years. The increase in demand for oil and gas with more countries such as China building more reactors, the upward trend in price is only expected to continue. There is a renewed enthusiasm for building new reactors even in eco-conscious European countries such as UK, France and Germany.Again, it makes sense for India to continue developing FBR-type Advanced Thorium Breeder Reactors (ATBR) without IAEA inspections. This opinion too was shared by some of India's nuclear scientists though we are not certain if it is a consensus opinion.

Also, Prof. Karnad warns against the importation of unproven/uncertified nuclear reactors from U.S. companies such as Westinghouse Electric Inc. given that they have effectively stopped building new reactors in the United States after the Three Mile Island accident. He advocates more funding and aggressive use of new technologies to improve the yield of local Uranium mining.

On the fossil fuel side, the U.S. does not want India to pursue oil deals with regimes which it considers 'hostile' thus making India over dependent on a more 'friendly' Saudi Arabia. Thus we believe that the agreement merits more discussion and transparency on the part of the Indian government.